NHK’s Next Host for Declining Kohaku Uta Gassen Likely to Be a Popular Comedian

On the verge of its second consecutive year with the worst viewer ratings

The year-end national TV program “NHK Kohaku Uta Gassen” is approaching a critical moment.

Last year’s broadcast of the “74th NHK Kohaku Uta Gassen” recorded its worst ratings since its debut, with the first half achieving a 29% household average and the second half reaching 31.9% (according to Video Research, Kanto region). The first half even dropped below the defensive line of 30%. An NHK insider explains:

“Following last year’s results, there are concerns within NHK about the possibility of recording the worst ratings for two consecutive years. If that happens, there may be discussions about a major renewal of the program’s content. The key to the ratings lies in the participating artists, but just as important is the host lineup. This year, four names have been announced: announcer Natsuko Suzuki (42), actress Kanna Hashimoto (25), actress Sairi Ito (30) who is hosting for the first time, and Hiroyuki Ariyoshi (50), who is returning for the second time after last year.”

While the host lineup seems solid, NHK’s higher-ups are reportedly troubled.

“There is a viewer segment that dislikes Ariyoshi. While he is popular among the core audience (aged 13-49), his sharp-tongued style of comedy isn’t well-received by viewers in their late 50s and older, a demographic that Kohaku particularly values. While the potential viewership for Hashimoto and Ito in this age group is about 8%—a high number—Ariyoshi’s potential is about half that, in the 4% range.”

Underwater 3-year contract

It seems that NHK had considered the fact that Ariyoshi is unpopular with viewers in their 50s and older when casting him. So why did NHK decide to use him for two consecutive years?

“Apparently, during the negotiations with Ariyoshi, the condition was set that he would host for three consecutive years. His schedule around New Year’s Eve, including rehearsal days, had already been secured, making it difficult for them to avoid using him. However, if the ratings continue to hit new lows this year, it’s unlikely they would bring him back next year,” said an advertising agency insider.

So, who could be the host to attract better ratings? An insider from a production company revealed that within NHK, “Sandwich Man” is being quietly pushed as a potential replacement.

“Mikio Date (50) and Takeshi Tomizawa (50) have a strong positive image with senior audiences, and their potential viewership is both over 10%. This year’s Kohaku is likely to feature songs that commemorate the late Toshiyuki Nishida (76) and those related to the Great East Japan Earthquake, such as ‘If I Could Play the Piano’ and ‘Flowers Will Bloom,’ which has become a song of support for the recovery efforts. NHK is expected to involve ‘Sandwich Man’ in that segment, as they have ties to the Tohoku region. If ‘Sandwich Man’ delivers in terms of ratings, they could become the next viable candidate to replace Ariyoshi.”

Whether Ariyoshi will continue as the host next year or whether the most liked duo will take over, the ratings this year will likely hold the key.