After 65-Seat Loss, Shigeru Ishiba Foresees the Punching Bag Cabinet’s Grim Future

Defeat dealt in a flash

On October 28, one night after the LDP’s historic defeat, the LDP alone lost 65 seats. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (67) attended an extraordinary meeting of the LDP executive committee at the LDP headquarters, where party leaders were assembled.

The party was facing headwinds from the slush fund issue,” he said, “and then a report emerged in the final stages of the election campaign that the party had transferred 20 million yen to a branch headed by an unapproved Diet member, a fatal blow. Some are calling for Prime Minister Ishiba and Secretary General Yutaka Moriyama (79) to be held accountable for the sloppy transfer of funds at a critical time.

Prime Minister Ishiba took office on October 1 and immediately decided to dissolve the Diet in a blitzkrieg, saying that he would “ask the people for their trust. One would have thought that, having been confronted with such a high level of “distrust,” the party would have immediately moved to “dismantle Ishiba” but… Political journalist Koichi Kakutani shakes his head.

The former Abe faction, which was supposed to play a central role in the “get rid of Ishiba” campaign, suffered a devastating defeat, with many of its members losing their elections. The power of Sanae Takaichi, 63, and other influential figures who could turn against Prime Minister Ishiba has also been sapped. The damage is too great, and our rivals will have to take a wait-and-see attitude for a while.

The prime minister has no choice but to continue pitching, with no relievers available to replace Ishiba, who has been battered and bruised after giving up a large number of runs in the first inning. What is expected of the prime minister is to play the role of a “sandbag” for the opposition parties, who are expected to step up their offensive in the extraordinary and ordinary Diet sessions. Atsuo Ito, a former LDP official and political analyst, offers his analysis.

If the Ishiba cabinet’s approval rating does not recover after the regular Diet session that starts in January, a realistic scenario would be for the party to push for the budget to be passed in exchange for his resignation. Especially on the issue of politics and money, some concessions to the opposition parties are essential. Still, no matter how much he tackles this issue, it will not be a point of reference for the prime minister. Nor can we expect a recovery in his approval rating.”

The plan is to use up Prime Minister Ishiba and then re-start the race for the next president. Mr. Ito continued.

There will be an Upper House election next summer, and no time has passed since the budget was passed in March. We will hold a general meeting of both houses of the Diet and hold a presidential election in which only Diet members and representatives of prefectural federations will vote. The probability of Mr. Takaichi winning is low because party members’ votes will not be reflected. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, 67, cannot move aggressively because his approval rating declined during his tenure. Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, whose relationship with Kishida is not bad and who is a centrist conservative and can erase the strengths of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, will probably be the main contender.”

In the blink of an eye, the “war of attrition” was dealt to Prime Minister Ishiba after only 27 days in office, and it was a sad end for him.

From the November 15, 2024 issue of FRIDAY