What Comes After Arashi? Data Insights Reveal the True Strength of the Male Idol Group Era

Who is close to becoming the successor to “Arashi”? Male idols are in a crowded field.

On September 15, “Arashi” celebrated the 25th anniversary of its debut while it was still inactive. The group announced the opening of a special website and the sale of a picture book of their songs, but the five members were not seen together.

In terms of first-week sales of CD albums, the second-ranked group has finally sold over 400,000 copies, while Snow Man’s most recent album sold over 1 million copies. However, they are more than a triple score behind Arashi’s highest record of 3.3 million copies, and I feel that they are one step short of being called “national idols.

However, “Snow Man” is not only ahead in CD sales, but also in the number of TV appearances, live performances, and YouTube channel subscribers, making them the closest thing to a successor to “Arashi. The rest of the male idols are in a mixed state.

Until now, the male idol market has been the sole domain of “STARTO ENTERTAINMENT” (a.k.a. “STAEN”), which is capable of multi-faceted activities in every field, including dramas, variety shows, and CD sales. However, the emergence of groups from other firms specializing in certain fields is changing the ranking of each field. If they specialize in one field instead of competing in multiple fields, they may be able to compete with Staen in that field,” said an official of a major advertising agency.

For this article, we conducted a thorough comparison of figures in each field for 30 male idol groups consisting of members in their 30s or younger. Some of them moved from the former Johnny’s s office to other agencies and changed their direction from multi-type to specialized type. The first of these is “Number_i,” a member of TOBE.

The group consists of members who left the former Johnny’s “King & Prince” at the height of its popularity. They do not perform in variety shows or do acting work, which they originally did, but specialize in music activities. When casting variety shows, the names of Shiyoh Hirano (27) and Yuta Kishi (28), who have always been natural characters, are sometimes mentioned, but they have not appeared since their transfer.

The fact that they left their old home and drastically changed the course of their activities has caused a great deal of backlash from their former fans, but the fans who are now pushing for them are said to be of a fervent disposition as a reaction.

They have only been performing for eight months since their debut, so they have a small number of songs and have not been able to perform live for the most part, but the number of views per video on YouTube is the second largest after “Snow Man. The number of subscribers to their channel is also 5th with over 930,000. If it weren’t for the “Staen,” they would be at the top of the list. If the general attention level is high and the fans are enthusiastic, the anti-videos are also strong, so the response is probably strong. Fans of the old Staen are also concerned about the trend. It is an elite few fans who go to live shows, but the group can definitely get numbers if they appear on music programs,” said a former TV station official.

NHK morning dramas are the key to break through

Looking at the ranking of the number of regular programs (see table below), the TV industry is the sole domain of staens. In this context, the 11-member group “JO1” from “Lapone Entertainment” is highly regarded.

When casting, the first names that come up are the Staen talents, followed by the members of JO1. In particular, Junki Kono (26), the most popular member, often appears in dramas and variety shows. Although he is below Staen in terms of channel subscribers and live attendance, he belongs to an office managed by Yoshimoto Kogyo and has a close relationship with the TV station, so it is easy to make him an offer,” said the same person.

Also, “BE:FIRST,” a member of “BMSG,” broke Staen’s stronghold this year.

In the NHK morning drama “Tora ni Tsubasa,” member RYOKI (25) won the role of the main character’s younger brother. For these positions in morning dramas, acting groups are often chosen from the most popular groups in the staen at that time, such as Daigo Nishihata (27) of “Naniwa Dango” in “Gochisousan” and Hokuto Matsumura (29) of “SixTONES” in “Come Come Everybody”. In the case of this film, Yoshinori Masakado (27) of the “A Hey! group” who debuted in May this year. It seems that NHK took the opportunity to stop using staen talent for commercial dramas. Many companies are now emphasizing NHK’s historical dramas and morning dramas when casting commercials. This is proof that they have done their background checks and are gaining recognition among senior citizens who watch TV in real time,” said a source at a major advertising agency.

The number of live performances and public attention for “BE:FIRST” ranks fourth overall, even with the stellar talent. The group’s strategy appears to be to actively have its members appear on TV in the future to increase their name recognition among a wide range of age groups.

Groups undergoing a major transformation

While “JO1” and “BE:FIRST” are gaining momentum, there is a group that has reached a major turning point. This is “timelesz,” a group affiliated with Staen that changed its name from “Sexy Zone” in April of this year.

During the “Sexy Zone” era, Nakajima Kento (30), the oldest member of the group, was a “sexy character” who pioneered work in variety shows and TV dramas. In recent years, the group has made commercials its main battleground along with TV, so when the office transitioned to a new structure due to a series of problems, they were the group most affected.”

Furthermore, at the end of March, Nakajima withdrew from the group, leaving it with three members. In response to this change, “timelesz” is changing direction.

After changing its name, the group is trying to change its image by putting out artist-oriented songs instead of idol songs, and is holding an audition for new members for the first time at the office. Fuma Kikuchi (29), Katsutoshi Sato (27), and Satoshi Matsushima (26), who are currently in the group, initially appeared mostly in TV dramas and on stage, but they have broadened their range of work by turning their attention to variety shows as well. Many of his regular programs have been newly won in the past four years or so. I am looking forward to seeing how they will change in the future.

The friendly competition among the groups is the real thrill that idol fans are looking for.

As of September 23. Circles in the distribution chart indicate real numbers with the center of the circle. Figures in each chart are based on each official website, each official YouTube channel, and media reports at the time of the live event.

From the October 11, 2024 issue of FRIDAY