What Comes After Arashi? Data Insights Reveal the True Strength of the Male Idol Group Era

Who is close to becoming the successor to “Arashi”? Male idols are in a crowded field.

On September 15, Arashi celebrated their 25th debut anniversary while still on hiatus. Although a special website was launched and a song picture book was announced, the five members did not appear together.

“Since Arashi went on hiatus, the position of the nation’s top male idol group remains vacant. In terms of CD album sales, the second-highest selling group has just barely surpassed 400,000 copies, while Snow Man recently sold over a million copies of their latest album. However, there’s still a gap of over three times that amount compared to Arashi‘s highest record of 3.3 million copies, so it feels like Snow Man is still one step short of being called national idols,” said a TV station insider.

That said, Snow Man stands out not just in CD sales but also in TV appearances, concert attendance, and YouTube subscribers, positioning them as the closest successor to Arashi. Meanwhile, other male idol groups are in a fierce competition.

“The male idol market has long been dominated by ‘STARTO ENTERTAINMENT’ (commonly known as StarEn), which excels in multiple areas, including dramas, variety shows, and CD sales. However, recently, new groups from other agencies have emerged, specializing in specific fields, which is shifting the rankings in each category. If these groups focus on a single field instead of competing across multiple areas, they may have a chance to challenge StarEn in that field,” explained a major advertising agency representative.

This time, a comprehensive comparison was conducted across various fields for 30 male idol groups made up of members under 30. Some of the groups have members who transferred from the former Johnny’s Office, shifting from a multi-talented model to a more specialized one. A prime example is TOBE’s Number_i.

“They are made up of former King & Prince members who left the group at the peak of their popularity. They no longer appear on the variety shows they were known for or pursue acting roles, focusing solely on their music career. Although names like Sho Hirano (27) and Yuta Kishi (28) still come up for variety casting due to their natural characters, they haven’t appeared on any shows since their transfer,” noted a video production company insider.

Although their departure from their former agency and major shift in activity has caused a backlash among long-time fans, the remaining fans are described as extremely passionate.

“Although they’ve only been active for eight months, have few songs, and have hardly performed live, their average YouTube video views rank second after Snow Man. Their subscriber count has surpassed 930,000, ranking fifth overall, but they’re at the top outside of StarEn. Their general public recognition is high, and the intense passion of their fans means there’s also a strong presence of detractors, generating significant reactions. Even StarEn‘s fanbase keeps an eye on their activities. While only a select few fans attend their live performances, they are a group that would definitely draw strong ratings if they appear on music shows,” said the TV station insider.

 

NHK morning dramas are the key to break through

When looking at the ranking of the number of regular TV programs (see table below), it is clear that the TV industry is dominated by “Staen” (an abbreviation for “Star Entertainment”). In such a situation, the group “JO1,” a 11-member group belonging to “LAPONE Entertainment,” is also being recognized.

“In casting, the first names that come up are talents from Staen, followed by members of JO1. In particular, the most popular member, Junki Kono (26), often appears in dramas and variety shows. While their number of subscribers and live audience figures are lower than Staen’s, they are affiliated with a management office that Yoshimoto Kogyo is involved in, which has a deep relationship with TV stations, making it easier for them to receive offers,” said the same source.

Also, this year, it was “Be:First” a group belonging to “BMSG,” that broke Staen’s stronghold.

“Ryoki (25), a member of the group, landed the role of the protagonist’s younger brother in NHK’s morning drama ‘Tora ni Tsubasa.’ For these kinds of positions in morning dramas, acting talents from Staen’s most promoted groups are often chosen, such as Daigo Nishihata (27) from ‘Naniwa Danshi’ in ‘Gochisosan’ and Hokuto Matsumura (29) from ‘SixTONES’ in ‘Come Come Everybody.’ For this work, I thought it would be Yoshiki Masakado (27) from ‘A ぇ! group,’ who debuted this May. Even if non-Staen groups are promoted for commercial dramas, the best they can usually get is a minor role in a late-night drama or a BL drama for fans. It seems they took advantage of NHK’s decision to stop using Staen talents to push their way in. Many companies now place great importance on casting for NHK’s Taiga dramas and morning dramas when casting for commercials. It’s a sign that background checks have been completed, and it increases recognition among the senior demographic who still watch TV in real-time,” said a source from a major advertising agency.

In terms of live audience numbers and general public attention, Be:First ranks fourth overall, alongside Staen talents. Going forward, it seems their strategy is to actively have their members appear on TV to increase recognition across a wide range of age groups.

Groups undergoing a major transformation

As groups like “JO1” and “Be:First” continue to gain momentum, there is one group undergoing a major transformation. That group is “timelesz,” formerly known as “Sexy Zone,” which changed its name in April of this year and is affiliated with Staen.

“During their time as ‘Sexy Zone,’ the oldest member, Kento Nakajima (30), took on a ‘sexy character’ to carve out work opportunities in variety shows and dramas. In recent years, the group primarily focused on commercials alongside television appearances. This made them one of the groups most affected when the agency transitioned to its new management structure amid a series of issues,” said the same source.

Furthermore, at the end of March, Nakajima left the group, reducing the number of members to three. In response to this change, “timelesz” is undergoing a shift in direction.

“Since the name change, they’ve been focusing less on idol songs and more on artist-oriented tracks, while also holding the agency’s first-ever audition for new members. The current members—Fuma Kikuchi (29), Shori Sato (27), and Sou Matsushima (26)—initially had more opportunities in television dramas and stage performances, but they’ve also shifted toward variety shows, broadening their scope of work. Many of the regular programs they’ve landed over the past four years are new additions. It’s exciting to see how they’ll evolve from here,” said a TV station insider.

The competition between these groups is exactly the kind of excitement idol fans crave.

*As of September 23. The numbers in each chart are based on each group’s official websites, official YouTube channels, and reports during live events.

From the October 11, 2024 issue of FRIDAY