Facing Sanae Takaichi’s Potential Rise to Prime Minister and Government Shift

The leadership election for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) was held on September 23 in Tokyo, and Yoshihiko Noda was elected as the new leader after a runoff vote against Yukio Edano.

In a subsequent press conference, Noda declared:

“I am fully prepared to take back the government. The battle starts today!”

He struck a fighting pose as he looked ahead to the upcoming general election.

With the leadership election of the largest opposition party, the CDP, now concluded, next up is the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election (voting to take place on the 27th). Nine candidates are running, and the latest polls suggest a close contest between Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi.

 

Shinjiro Koizumi is struggling to gain momentum even in the party member votes.

“The one who made the best start was Shinjiro Koizumi, but with each debate, his support rate has dropped, and he is currently ranked third behind Ishiba and Takaichi. If things continue like this, a runoff between Ishiba and Takaichi seems highly likely,” said a political insider.

The leadership election is contested with a total of 736 votes: 368 from lawmakers and 368 from party members and affiliates. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a runoff between the top two candidates is held, where the result will be decided by 415 votes: 368 from lawmakers and 47 representing party members from each prefecture.

Economic critic Yoichi Takahashi, who accurately predicted the vote percentage in the Tokyo gubernatorial election this July, shared his forecast on a radio program: in the first round of voting, Ishiba would receive 35 votes from lawmakers and 120 from party members, Takaichi would get 40 from lawmakers and 110 from party members, and Koizumi would secure 60 from lawmakers and 55 from party members. His prediction that Koizumi would not gain as many party member votes as expected was surprising.

In the event of a runoff between Ishiba and Takaichi, Takahashi originally predicted Ishiba would get 185 votes from lawmakers and 25 from party members, while Takaichi would get 185 from lawmakers and 20 from party members. However, he later corrected his prediction on X (formerly Twitter), stating that Ishiba would get 180 from lawmakers and 25 from party members, while Takaichi would get 185 from lawmakers and 20 from party members, resulting in a tie at 205 votes each.

Among the three candidates, Takaichi is the one making rapid gains. Although there was an issue with the mass distribution of leaflets before the election, it does not seem to have had a significant impact on her momentum.

“She enjoys overwhelming support from people commonly referred to as being on the right wing,” said a Liberal Democratic Party insider.

 

There are also rumors that, if it comes to a runoff, the largest faction, the Aso faction, will back Takaichi.

Amid all this, opposition party members are reportedly quietly smiling.

A policy secretary for a Constitutional Democratic Party lawmaker said:

“We definitely want Takaichi to become Prime Minister. That would make it easier to target her in a snap general election. We believe that a change in government wouldn’t just be a dream.”

 

 

 

“The Constitutional Democratic Party has been reborn as mild conservatism.”

Initially, Takaichi struggled to gather supporters but managed to secure 20 people to endorse her candidacy. However, 13 of those 20 were under-the-table money politicians, leading to widespread criticism. Takaichi claims,

“I didn’t know until I read the newspaper.”

But if she becomes Prime Minister, she will undoubtedly face scrutiny over the under-the-table money issue. Her stance on the former Unification Church problem is also ambiguous.

“In terms of economic policy, she has stated that she will follow Abenomics, which implemented unprecedented monetary easing. In other words, it’s a sequel to Abe’s politics. It’s obvious that the Constitutional Democratic Party will target this,” said a political insider.

Moreover, the new leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Noda, is expected to garner some support from conservative factions. A political reporter from a national newspaper shared thoughts on future scenarios:

“With Noda as the new leader, the Constitutional Democratic Party has taken on an image akin to mild conservatism. In the elections, they will likely form a coalition without the Japanese Communist Party, taking lessons from the previous gubernatorial election. What I’ve sensed while traveling across the country is that people are angry about the Liberal Democratic Party’s under-the-table money issues. Many say, ‘I usually support the Liberal Democratic Party, but I don’t know if I’ll vote for them next time.’ They will aim for that voter base.”

For the hardline conservative Takaichi, Noda poses a challenging opponent. Despite having harshly criticized Noda within the Liberal Democratic Party, some are now saying,

“If it’s an election, it might be Koizumi.”

— a rather late realization. Conversely, voices from the opposition are saying,

“Anything but Koizumi.”

It’s conventional to select a party leader with the upcoming general election in mind. It seems there could be further twists and turns ahead.