Facing Sanae Takaichi’s Potential Rise to Prime Minister and Government Shift

The leadership election for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) was held on September 23 in Tokyo, and Yoshihiko Noda was elected as the new leader after a runoff vote against Yukio Edano.

In a subsequent press conference, Noda declared:

“I am fully prepared to take back the government. The battle starts today!”

He struck a fighting pose as he looked ahead to the upcoming general election.

With the leadership election of the largest opposition party, the CDP, now concluded, next up is the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election (voting to take place on the 27th). Nine candidates are running, and the latest polls suggest a close contest between Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi.

 

Shinjiro Koizumi is struggling to gain momentum even in the party member votes.

“The one who made the best start was Shinjiro Koizumi, but with each debate, his support rate has dropped, and he is currently ranked third behind Ishiba and Takaichi. If things continue like this, a runoff between Ishiba and Takaichi seems highly likely,” said a political insider.

The leadership election is contested with a total of 736 votes: 368 from lawmakers and 368 from party members and affiliates. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a runoff between the top two candidates is held, where the result will be decided by 415 votes: 368 from lawmakers and 47 representing party members from each prefecture.

Economic critic Yoichi Takahashi, who accurately predicted the vote percentage in the Tokyo gubernatorial election this July, shared his forecast on a radio program: in the first round of voting, Ishiba would receive 35 votes from lawmakers and 120 from party members, Takaichi would get 40 from lawmakers and 110 from party members, and Koizumi would secure 60 from lawmakers and 55 from party members. His prediction that Koizumi would not gain as many party member votes as expected was surprising.

In the event of a runoff between Ishiba and Takaichi, Takahashi originally predicted Ishiba would get 185 votes from lawmakers and 25 from party members, while Takaichi would get 185 from lawmakers and 20 from party members. However, he later corrected his prediction on X (formerly Twitter), stating that Ishiba would get 180 from lawmakers and 25 from party members, while Takaichi would get 185 from lawmakers and 20 from party members, resulting in a tie at 205 votes each.

Among the three candidates, Takaichi is the one making rapid gains. Although there was an issue with the mass distribution of leaflets before the election, it does not seem to have had a significant impact on her momentum.

“She enjoys overwhelming support from people commonly referred to as being on the right wing,” said a Liberal Democratic Party insider.