Chaos in LDP Leadership Election as Major Favorite Shinjiro Koizumi Faces Being Discarded After Election

No one desires a long-term administration under Shinjiro Koizumi.

 

“If I become Prime Minister, I want to dissolve the House of Representatives as soon as possible and seek the public’s trust regarding my reform plan.”

 

Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (43) declared this boldly at his candidacy announcement on September 6. However, political journalist Koichi Sumitani expressed skepticism, stating, “Even if he wins the leadership election, the situation afterward will be challenging.”

 

“Currently, over 50% of the LDP’s House of Representatives members are first-term or second-term legislators with weak political bases. For them, whose face appears on the campaign poster is crucial. They are likely to cling to Shinjiro Koizumi, especially considering the upcoming elections. If he dissolves the House of Representatives right after becoming party leader, he might win the election as a kind of congratulatory gesture, but he will likely reveal his weaknesses before the House of Councillors election next summer.”

 

Despite already being criticized for “lack of experience,” it remains uncertain whether he can navigate the regular Diet session, Sumitani continues.

 

“In the Budget Committee, the opposition will send their top players, leading to one-on-one debates in the Diet. His lack of experience will likely become apparent here. If his shortcomings are exposed, the outcome of the House of Councillors election could be disastrous. Even if he wins the House of Representatives election, he could face a significant defeat in the House of Councillors, potentially losing the majority. Already, many members of the House of Councillors are expressing concern that having Koizumi as the new party leader could be risky.”

 

In fact, a mid-level LDP member whispered to FRIDAY, “It wouldn’t be surprising if calls to oust Shinjiro started right after the budget passes.”

“The next House of Representatives election will spotlight deep-rooted issues the LDP has faced, such as under-the-table funds and the former Unification Church. It will be a battle where defeat is anticipated. We need a way to navigate the situation where ‘the LDP falls from power.’ That’s where Shinjiro comes in. In other words, he could be used as a disposable asset in just one election. No one desires a long-term administration under him.”

Shinjiro Koizumi is supported by the elders, but.

Shinjiro Koizumi is assertively claiming he will implement “unrestricted regulatory reform” and “reform within the LDP” within a year, but doubts remain about whether he can actually deliver. This is largely because he is being supported by the party’s “elders.”

The most prominent figure in Koizumi’s support group is former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (75). On September 8, he attended Koizumi’s street speech in front of JR Sakuragicho Station and stated, “I want to entrust Japan’s steering to Shinjiro Koizumi.”

“This time, Suga has arranged for missing endorsements from Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (71) and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato (68). He is currying favor with various camps to ensure that votes go to Shinjiro in the runoff. Additionally, former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori (87) is reportedly working hard to gather votes for Koizumi from former Seiwa-kai members. It seems the Koizumi camp is anxious not to appear supported by those associated with the lingering image of under-the-table funds.” (says Sumitani)

Currently, it is seen as “certain” that Shinjiro will advance to the runoff. If that happens, it will be clear that he cannot challenge the elders who have secured their votes.

Initially, he received favorable coverage from the media, but tensions have begun to rise.

“At the recent candidacy announcement, they meticulously organized attendance, requiring prior registration to determine seating. Questions were directed mainly at reporters from major national papers, leading freelance journalists to shout, ‘Enough already!’ Two days before the announcement, they sent an unreasonable email to heads of various outlets, requesting that they come to the campaign office ’30 minutes later,’ which left many confused.” (said a participant at the event)

Political scholar Yukiko Amakawa is also skeptical about Shinjiro’s ability to manage the administration.

“His background involves studying abroad with his father’s support, working at a think tank, and then returning to serve as his father’s secretary. Within the LDP, there was an unwritten rule that if you were to inherit a position, you should serve as a secretary in another member’s office first, but he has disregarded that. Until now, Shinjiro has had everything prepared for him by those around him. I don’t believe someone without a firm ‘national vision’ can fulfill the role of Prime Minister.”

Could it literally become a case of a “light and disposable mikoshi”?

From the September 27 and October 4, 2024 combined issue of ‘FRIDAY.’