Tokyo Assembly Election Heats Up: LDP Struggles to Avoid Major Defeat Amid Lingering Scandal

The Secret Funds Scandal Loses Momentum

Tokyo Assembly Election: LDP Avoids Major Defeat as Secret Funds Scandal Fades

The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, scheduled for official announcement on June 13 and voting on June 22, was initially expected to be a disaster for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faction due to the political funds scandal. However, an unexpected tailwind now seems to be favoring them.

A senior official from Tomin First no Kai expressed surprise:

“At first, the focus was on how badly the LDP would lose and which party would gain their lost seats. In particular, the new party ‘Path to Revival’ launched by Shinji Ishimaru (42), who placed second in last year’s gubernatorial race, was aiming to field candidates in all districts, making other parties wary.”

However, recent events have diverted attention from the LDP’s secret funds scandal. The most significant factor was that news coverage of Fuji TV and Masahiro Nakai (52), a former SMAP member, coincided with the announcement of penalties for LDP Tokyo Assembly members involved in the scandal.

On January 24, only the Tokyo Shimbun had the LDP’s secret funds scandal on its front page, while other major newspapers led with Nakai’s retirement from showbiz instead. Unlike the National Diet, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly lacks an ethics committee, meaning there were no public explanations or accountability hearings, making it even easier for the issue to fade.

Light Punishments and No Criminal Charges for LDP Assembly Members

Although the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office investigated, just like in the national scandal, the details of who ordered the undisclosed funds and how remain unknown.

In the end, only Hidetakatsu Yajima (72), the treasurer of the LDP Tokyo Assembly faction, was penalized. He received a three-year ban from public office and a ¥1 million fine, but since he was merely a staff member and not running for election, the fine was essentially the only consequence.

Among the 30 current LDP Tokyo Assembly members, 16 had unreported funds, yet none were indicted. A political journalist covering Tokyo’s government explained:

“At the national level, only lawmakers with over ¥40 million in unreported funds were prosecuted. In comparison, the amounts in the Tokyo Assembly scandal ranged from a maximum of ¥3.32 million (Masahiko Miyake, 4th term, Island District) to a minimum of ¥100,000 (Takumi Motohashi, 1st term, North Tama)—significantly lower. Since no assembly members were indicted, the LDP’s Tokyo branch breathed a sigh of relief.”

Within the LDP Tokyo Assembly faction, Speaker Satoshi Udagawa (60) resigned, and six former secretaries-general were denied party endorsement for the upcoming election, forcing them to run as independents. However, these were the only disciplinary measures against members.

Frustrated by what they saw as lenient punishments, Komeito’s Tokyo Assembly faction decided to withdraw support for all LDP candidates in the upcoming election.

Some infighting within the LDP

Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election: LDP Faces Infighting as Ishimaru’s Party Faces Election Law Violation Allegations

“The Komeito party has decided to field 22 candidates in 20 electoral districts for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. In districts where Komeito does not have a candidate, some of its supporters’ votes may still go to the LDP candidates. Additionally, the LDP has not fielded ‘assassin candidates’ against the six members who lost their party endorsement. By securing support from organizations and vote blocs, the LDP is expected to put up a decent fight,” said a national newspaper journalist.

Although the LDP is regaining some ground from a near-fatal situation, it remains damaged. The late Shigeru Uchida, former secretary-general of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly LDP caucus, once known as the “Don of Tokyo Politics,” wielded influence over other parties and even the Tokyo Metropolitan Police, reportedly being powerful enough to influence the governor. During his tenure, Uchida and his close aides controlled personnel matters, but since his passing in 2022, along with former secretary-general Naoki Takashima and Koto Ward Mayor Takaaki Yamazaki, the faction has lost its key figures.

“Koichi Hagiuda (61), former head of the LDP Tokyo chapter, has also lost his influence due to the political fundraising scandal involving the former Abe faction. Meanwhile, Takaaki Yamazaki’s son, former assembly member Kazuki Yamazaki (52), remains unseated. With no dominant figure within the LDP Tokyo chapter, the party lacks clear direction.

Furthermore, former Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Isshu Sugawara (63), who heads the LDP’s Tokyo 9th district branch, attempted to block incumbent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly member Akemi Yamaka (71) from receiving party endorsement in favor of his protégé, a former ward councilor. In addition, National Democratic Party member Tatsuo Ishiguro (50), a Nerima Ward assemblyman, is aiming to move up to the metropolitan assembly. While LDP members engage in internal struggles, other parties are steadily preparing,” said an active Nerima Ward assembly member.

The LDP, once the dominant force in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, is expected to lose seats. With the election set to be highly competitive, which party will come out on top?

Meanwhile, Shinji Ishimaru’s newly formed party, Path of Renewal, which gained attention with its bold plan to field candidates in all 42 electoral districts, is now facing a crisis. Weekly magazine Shukan Bunshun reported for two consecutive weeks that Ishimaru’s campaign may have violated the Public Offices Election Act, leading to a criminal complaint from a civic group.

“The Bunshun articles contain information that could only have come from an internal source, suggesting infighting within Ishimaru’s camp. Ishimaru also reportedly told interviewers involved in his party’s candidate selection process that they would be ‘paid an hourly wage.’ The Public Offices Election Act strictly regulates payments to prevent wealthier candidates from gaining an unfair advantage, meaning this could also be illegal. If prosecutors launch a full investigation following the reports and the criminal complaint, Ishimaru’s political influence may collapse,” said a Tokyo Metropolitan Government official.

With rapid developments and an uncertain future, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election remains unpredictable. Which party will ultimately win the hearts of Tokyo’s voters?