Rice Shortage, Price Increases & Restrictions on Purchase in Stores! Worst case scenario in the 30’s…’The day when we will no longer be self-sufficient in rice’.

Private inventories of rice at the end of June were at the “lowest level” since the statistics began: ……

Something unusual is happening to rice. Some supermarkets have reported a “rice shortage” one after another, with products disappearing from their shelves and requests to limit purchases to “one per person. What is happening?

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) releases monthly private-sector rice inventory levels. Private-sector inventories of last year’s rice totaled 1.56 million tons at the end of June of this year, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the same month last year. This is the lowest level since the statistics began in 1999.

This is believed to be due to the fact that abnormal weather conditions have affected the growth of rice, and that consumers are shifting to rice, which has relatively moderate price increases amid soaring food prices across the board. In its explanatory materials, MAFF states that “rice prices rose relatively moderately amid a decline in milled rice yield (lower first-class ratio, etc.) due to high temperatures and drought in last year’s rice crop and the continued rise in overall food prices since September of Reiwa 2021.

Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Tetsushi Sakamoto said at a press conference on August 2,

The ratio of private-sector inventories to annual demand of 7.02 million tons was 22.2%, almost the same level as in 2011 and 2012, and the level of inventories needed before the new rice crop goes on sale has been secured,” he said. We are aware that the inventory level required for the new rice crop is secured,” he said.

He further emphasized, “At this point, the total amount of staple rice is about the same as that of the same period in 2011 and 2012.

We do not consider the overall supply and demand of staple rice to be in a tight situation at this time. We would like to reassure consumers that they can purchase rice as usual.

Nevertheless, why is rice in short supply at retailers, even if only partially? An official from the Agricultural Policy Department of the MAFF Agricultural Produce Bureau said,

The price of rice has risen by 11% in the negotiated trade, and it has also risen by about 10% in stores,” said an official of the Agricultural Produce Policy Department of the MAFF’s Agricultural Produce Bureau.

The price of farm products has gone up by 11%, and in-store prices have also gone up by about 10%. While restaurants are struggling due to the COVID-19 crisis, private-sector inventories “built up considerably” in 2008-2009, he said. Rice production areas responded to the lower prices by increasing production, and the “supply-demand balance tightened” in 2010 and 2011.

It is believed that major supermarkets and other retailers who deal directly with rice producers and wholesalers under annual contracts were able to secure products. On the other hand, MAFF officials believe that new dealers may have found it difficult to procure certain brands of rice, and that higher-than-expected prices may have made it difficult for them to procure the product, which may have led to the shortage of some products in stores.