Oshi-Katsu Market Soars to 820 Billion Yen: Japan’s Economic Game Changer?

The Bank of Japan is also paying attention to Oshi Katsu (supporting your favorite). From Product Consumption and Experience Consumption to Time Consumption

“There are seniors who find purpose in Shohei Ohtani. The economic impact of seniors, who have money and are captivated by Shohei Ohtani, purchasing related goods, is significant.”

This was said by Toshihiro Nagahama, Chief Economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

When looking at Japan’s economic trends, experts and organizations like the Bank of Japan are paying attention to so-called “Oshi Katsu.” While “Oshi Katsu” is generally associated with younger people, particularly women, it is also a trend among middle-aged and older men.

Shohei Ohtani, a major league player with the Los Angeles Dodgers, is said to inspire many middle-aged and older men with his daily achievements.

Saisuke Sakai, Chief Japan Economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies, explains:

“With rising prices, overall consumption remains weak. Oshi Katsu is one of the discriminated consumption trends, where people spend money on things they are passionate about as a small luxury.”

While many are forced into frugal living due to high prices, Sakai views discriminated consumption, where people save in some areas but spend in others, as a way for individuals to release stress.

Nagahama, mentioned earlier, also sees Oshi Katsu as a form of discriminated consumption and states, “People cut back on everyday spending but loosen their purse strings when it comes to Oshi Katsu.” He attributes this to the fact that “Japan’s deflationary mindset has become deeply ingrained after the lost 30 years, making frugality more prevalent.”

The Bank of Japan also closely monitors Oshi Katsu in assessing economic trends. For example, in last autumn’s “Regional Economic Report,” the Bank of Japan’s main office analyzed individual consumption:

“Especially among young people, demand for Oshi Katsu is strong, with sales of related goods doing well. As a result, per-customer spending is rising, and there is a tendency to spend generously at leisure facilities” (Bank of Japan’s “Regional Economic Report”).

While young people are considered the main demographic for Oshi Katsu, the Consumer Affairs Agency has analyzed the consumption behavior of young people in its report, noting a shift from monokai consumption (purchasing goods) and kotokai consumption (participating in experiences like travel or art) to tokikai consumption, where people engage in sports events and concerts, actively participating in the excitement.

“Recently, young people have strengthened their connections not only with others who support the same things but also with the people they support, particularly through long-use social media” (Consumer Affairs Agency’s “Young People’s Consumption Behavior”).

 

The market size of “oshi katsu” is estimated to be around 820 billion yen for the fiscal year 2023 with some estimates suggesting it could reach 3.5 trillion yen annually!

What is the economic impact of “oshi katsu”?

Yano Research Institute estimates Japan’s “otaku market” to be around 820 billion yen for the fiscal year 2023. The breakdown includes about 275 billion yen for anime, about 106 billion yen for doujinshi (self-published works), and about 190 billion yen for idols. According to this research, among the 16 main sectors of the market, in addition to the three mentioned, 14 other sectors such as plastic models, dolls, train models, figurines, and cosplay costumes grew compared to the previous year.

The gross domestic product (GDP) for last year’s nominal value was about 600 trillion yen, with about 60% coming from personal consumption.

“There is no data, but it’s one of the few factors driving consumption growth. Even if the volume is small, the growth is significant. The negative impact on consumption due to savings is being limited by the positive impact of ‘oshi katsu'” (Toshihiro Nagahama, Chief Economist, Dai-ichi Life Research Institute).

“Many people are spending several tens of thousands of yen per month on ‘oshi katsu.’ By the time you’re in your 30s, you probably have a reasonable income. It’s not something to underestimate” (Saisei Sakai, Chief Economist, Mizuho Research & Technologies).

The Consumer Affairs Agency points out in the aforementioned report that more companies and organizations are providing opportunities for goods and events focusing on “oshi katsu.” The industry is also being energized by “oshi katsu.”

So, how much money is actually being spent on “oshi katsu”?

Marketing firm Ridel (Minato Ward, Tokyo) conducted an online survey with 159 people last autumn. According to the results, 28.9% of respondents spent an average of 10,000 to 30,000 yen per month, and 2.5% spent over 100,000 yen. Some even reported spending over 500,000 yen on “oshi katsu” (supporting a favorite personality or hobby).

Additionally, Favosia (Minato Ward), which operates a female-exclusive “oshi katsu” app, conducted a survey with 183 users at the end of last year. The average amount spent in 2024 was about 400,000 yen. Of this, about 180,000 yen was spent on live events and related expenses such as ticket fees, travel, accommodation, hair, makeup, and participation costs. About 170,000 yen was spent on merchandise, with over 25% of that being transactions between otaku (fans) on flea market sites and SNS platforms.

An online store and media operator Oshicoco (Shibuya Ward) surveyed 23,069 people in January this year. Of the respondents, 16.7% said they were involved in “oshi katsu.” This translates to an estimated 13.84 million people engaging in “oshi katsu” nationwide. Compared to last year’s survey, there was an increase in the percentage of women in their early 30s, rising by 8.2 points to 30.4%.

In the Oshicoco survey, the annual expenditure on “oshi katsu” was about 250,000 yen. From this data, it is estimated that the total national expenditure on “oshi katsu” for the year is about 3.5 trillion yen.

However, since these surveys likely target people with a strong otaku inclination, the population estimates and numbers should be taken as rough references.

The key to Japan’s revival: “OSHI”!

On social media, the coined term “OSHI” has emerged and is gaining global recognition. Additionally, foreign investment funds are beginning to consider it as one of their investment targets.

Sakai from Mizuho Research & Technologies points out that Japan, with its strong content industries such as anime, may be able to connect “OSHI” culture with inbound tourism more effectively.

“While exports like automobiles have started to slow down due to the weaker yen, inbound tourism will eventually plateau. On the other hand, the content business is a sector where Japan has strength and can generate revenue,” he says.

During this past Lunar New Year, the city of Hakodate, featured in a movie, became a hotspot for pilgrimage tourism, reportedly experiencing overtourism.

“People who are passionate about something will go anywhere, even from distant places, to recreate scenes from their favorite dramas.”

Those involved in “OSHI” activities do not mind the costs or time spent, and do not concern themselves with typical cost-efficiency metrics like cost-performance or time-performance.

Sakai also states, “Those who get hooked, get completely immersed. ‘OSHI’ activities make demand visible and bring it to the surface.”

“Recently, there have been online concerts and fan meetings. The digital age makes it possible to host concerts on a scale that would otherwise be impossible.”

“OSHI” activities are not only flourishing domestically but may also capture inbound demand from overseas. With digitalization, its scale could expand even further. How much “OSHI” culture will grow in the future remains an exciting question.