Prime Minister Kishida’s Extraordinary Measures To Cope With the Declining Birthrate Is a Carbon Copy of KDP Representative Tamaki’s Idea

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (65) has announced measures to counter the declining birthrate in non conventional way at the beginning of the Year. Perhaps because his choice of the term “Different Dimension” for the project drew criticism from various quarters, the prime minister quickly revised the phrase slightly in his policy speech on January 23, saying, “Extraordinary Measures to deal with the declining birthrate.”

In fact, however, this “countermeasure to the declining birthrate of a different dimension” had already been proposed five years earlier. The policy proposal was made by Yuichiro Tamaki, 53, a representative of the People’s Democratic Party of Japan. According to Mr. Tamaki, not only the term “Another Dimension” but also the content of the proposal is very similar to his own proposal. “I would like to receive at least a copyright fee,” said Tamaki, smiling. We asked him about his evaluation of Prime Minister Kishida’s “other dimension” in terms of measures to combat the declining birthrate, as well as the issues involved.

–What did you think when you heard about Prime Minister Kishida’s policy of “extraordinary measures to combat the declining birthrate?”

Yuichiro Tamaki (hereafter, Tamaki): “Frankly speaking, it is completely the same as what I proposed in ’18 (laugh). It was not only the words that were the same, but also the content. The three axes of “strengthening financial support such as child allowances,” “expanding services for all families raising children,” and “promoting reform of work styles” were also almost identical to what we had in mind. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that they are exactly the same. From the perspective of our party, which is a policy proposal type, we are grateful for that (laughs).”

–Tamaki: “Have you consulted with Prime Minister Kishida or any of the other current cabinet ministers about your policies?

Tamaki: “For the past five years, the party has been communicating this to the ruling party. However, it has taken a long time to get to this point. Last year, the number of births was less than 800,000, and I think they finally got a sense of crisis, but it is too late. I know it’s a consequence, but if they had taken action five years ago, the numbers may not have reached the level they have now.

–Tamaki: “Where did you get the idea for the term ‘other dimension’?”

Tamaki: “At the time, the term ‘inter-dimensional monetary easing’ was used, and that’s where I got the idea. The word “different dimension” may conjure up images of outlandish policies, but I don’t think there is any need for anything new. What the Diet can do is to create a new standard of what is normal. What needs to be done in a “different dimension” is the speed at which legislation can be enacted. The aging of the population has accelerated six years faster than the national projection, and the birthrate should have been reduced six years earlier than it was. The other issue is how to procure financial resources. It is not that we cannot do it because we do not have the money, but we should do it promptly even if we have to issue children’s government bonds. We have already reached that stage in our country’s fertility problem.

–Tamaki also once advocated a policy of providing 10 million yen to a family that has a third child.

Tamaki: “Ten million yen may seem like a large amount, but it is about 46,000 yen per month until the child reaches the age of 18. It is not an unrealistic figure, even taking into account the current child allowance benefit amount. In fact, when we do research, we find that there are many cases of people giving up on having a third child for financial reasons.

–The total budget of the Administration for Children and Families, which will be established in April, is 4,810.4 billion yen. There have been reports that the government is considering doubling the size of the budget.

Tamaki: “I think this budget size is a reasonable figure.”

–Tamaki: “Even if the government were to issue children’s government bonds, will the future financial resources be covered by tax revenues?”

Tamaki: “For example, if a person works for 40 years from the age of 25 to 65, earning 5 million yen a year, his/her lifetime wage would be 200 million yen, and a salaryman earning 200 million yen would pay approximately 50 million yen in income taxes and 50 million yen in social insurance premiums. Although it is a simple calculation, isn’t it a very efficient idea to spend 10 million yen to produce one person who pays 100 million yen in taxes?

-In the representative question, he emphasized that “First of all, we need to examine the past child-rearing policies.”

Tamaki: “For decades, it has been said that measures to combat the declining birthrate are necessary, and the national and local governments have done a lot. In this context, we believe that it is time for objective verification accompanied by evidence. Especially now, we are in a state of municipal mess. Akashi City, which implemented five free programs, including ‘medical expenses,’ ‘childcare fees for the second and subsequent children,’ ‘junior high school lunch fees,’ ‘playgrounds in public facilities,’ and ‘diapers,’ has continued to increase its population, and Tottori Prefecture has also seen its birth rate increase. Looking overseas, France has recorded a birth rate of 1.83 among developed countries. It is essential to gather all such successful examples from local governments and overseas. It is safe and reliable to verify and incorporate them as references.”

— Some have questioned whether Prime Minister Kishida’s measures, which are aimed at the current child-rearing generation, will lead to an increase in the birth rate among low-income groups and others.

Tamaki: “Although there may be criticism, we believe that the most important thing when considering measures to combat the declining birthrate is to have two or more children born to a couple. According to a survey by the “Population Research Institute” of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the overwhelming majority of people give up more than one child for economic reasons. Of course, support for low-income people is also important, but this should be done as a welfare policy. This is different from measures to combat declining birthrates. Considering the current birth rate, we believe that economic support for the middle class who work diligently and pay proper taxes is more important. And, they believe that this would be more effective. When considering the issues of education and child rearing, I believe that the first thing the government should do is to provide economic support.

–Tamaki: “The elimination of income restrictions on child allowances is also a high priority in the fight against declining birthrates,” he said.

Tamaki: “There is no doubt about that. Wage increases and the elimination of income limits are issues that should be considered as a set within the context of measures to counteract the declining birthrate on a different level. The elimination of income limits is also an issue that has finally reached the stage where it can be discussed, having been proposed twice by our party, in June and October of last year. Without wage increases and the elimination of income limits, it is difficult to imagine any dramatic effect, no matter how many birthrate reduction measures are developed.

–As a representative of an opposition party, what stance will you take in the future in relation to measures to counter the declining birthrate in a different dimension?

Tamaki: “I would like to cooperate where I can, involving not only the opposition parties but also the ruling party in order to realize the policy. I intend to directly approach the government, the ministers in charge, and senior officials of both the ruling and opposition parties, with the aim of getting legislation enacted.

–Tamaki: “Prime Minister Kishida has revised the term to “different dimension”.

Tamaki: “Perhaps Prime Minister Kishida revised his statement after being told to do so by various people. At least at this stage, the content of our proposal and that of the PM’s ‘different dimension’ in terms of birthrate is almost the same. In fact, I feel that we are getting closer and closer (laughs). My only wish is that they would even take down the method and speed of raising financial resources.