The reason why there are whispers within the LDP that Prime Minister Kishida’s punishment of Abe faction officials is “formal and meaningless”.

The House of Representatives and the House of Councillors held a Political Ethics Examination Committee meeting to discuss the issue of slush funds from the LDP faction’s political fund parties. However, the Abe faction leaders who stood up to defend themselves repeatedly stated that they “did not know” and that they “followed the customary practice,” and the criticism did not subside as the truth was not revealed. Opinion polls conducted by various media outlets also showed that the Kishida administration’s approval rating remained low, in the 20% range.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (66), out of frustration, personally conducted interviews on March 26 with Abe faction officials who were involved in the slush fund issue,

He said, “We are conducting the interviews as the executive branch of the party. At this stage, I am unable to discuss the details of the investigation,” he said at the Prime Minister’s Office.

Kishida finally made a serious effort to get to the bottom of the matter. Prime Minister Kishida has finally lifted his heavy hand, but there is a sinister plot behind it. A reporter from the political section of a national newspaper pointed out that “Kishida may be trying to recover his approval rating by disposing of Abe faction officials in conjunction with his April visit to the U.S.,” and continued, “He may be trying to stop the party ticket kickbacks.

The four Abe faction officials who were in a position to stop the party ticket kickbacks but did nothing are expected to be punished more severely than “not being recognized in the election,” he said. The middle-ranking and younger members of the Abe faction, who did not receive as much money as the others, are expected to receive lighter punishments of suspension or warning. Prime Minister Kishida probably wants to make his presence felt there again.”

Prior to his visit to the U.S., the Abe faction is expected to announce on April 1 the disciplinary actions to be taken against the Abe faction’s top officials. The four who will be punished with “electoral non-certification” are believed to be former Education Minister Tadashi Shioya (74), who chaired the panel, former Education Minister Hirofumi Shimomura (69), who was secretary general, former METI Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura (61), and Upper House Secretary-General Hiroshige Seko (61).

The LDP has a party code of discipline, and any member of the LDP who commits an act that defiles the party’s discipline or dignity is referred to the party discipline committee for disciplinary action. What are the types of punishments?

(1) expulsion, (2) recommendation for resignation from the party, (3) suspension of party membership, (4) non-recognition in elections, (5) recommendation for resignation from positions in the Diet and government, (6) suspension from party positions, (7) warning, and (8) recommendation for compliance with party rules.

The four members were given a total of eight types of punishments.

The remaining three executives, Hiroshi Matsuno, 61, former chief cabinet secretary; Kōichi Hagiuda, 60, former policy chief; and Takeshi Takagi, 68, former chairman of the National Policy Committee, were given a “suspension of office” because they did not attend a meeting of executives at which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, then chairman, ordered them to stop kickbacks. The three executives are being suspended from their positions as a measure of consideration for the need to stop the kickbacks.

If Shioya and four others are given “unauthorized” status, they will run as independent candidates in the next election. They will not be able to use the LDP’s signboard and will not be paid an official certification fee. Since they will not be able to run for the same electoral district, if they are defeated in their electoral districts, they will not be able to win the election again and will be eliminated from the race.

It would appear that the party has imposed a harsh punishment by not offering any support to politicians in the most important elections of all. However, a mid-level member of Abe’s faction says, “In reality, this is not the case, but rather just a show of revenge before the three supplementary elections to the House of Representatives in April.

As in the case of Prime Minister Koizumi’s dissolution of the postal system, there will not be a bloody battle between one LDP candidate and another in the same constituency. The LDP candidate will be left ‘blank,’ and if he or she beats the opposition candidate and wins the district, he or she will be added to the list of approved candidates.

Hagiuda and the remaining three officials have already retired from their party positions, and if they are only “suspended,” it will only be a formality. Prime Minister Kishida may want to make a political performance by saying that he personally conducted the hearings and took the severe punishment.

In fact, there is a very good chance that the executives will win the election. A veteran member of the Abe faction said, “The LDP is the ruling party.

“The LDP can remain the ruling party because it approves candidates who are strong in elections. Mr. Nishimura is regarded as the “biggest election devil in the Seiwa-kai,” and he usually hands his secretary a copy of a map and asks her to go door-to-door, saying, “Go around this area. Even if there are posters of other parties on his door, he makes his secretary ring the doorbell, and he requires detailed reports on whether or not all family members are supporters of that party. Although the LDP chairperson Shioya, who is old and vulnerable in elections, is considered to be in danger, the other LDP officials will probably return.

Even when scandals have come to light, LDP members have stayed in office, believing that they have been “purified” if they survive the election. This time, too, what at first glance appears to be a harsh punishment was in fact a gratuitous act. Will we see a repeat of this scene after the next election?