Whispers of Prime Minister Kishida’s Punishment of Abe Faction Executives Seen as Formal and Meaningless

If Shiotani and the other four receive unofficial recognition penalties, they will have to run as independent candidates in the next election. They won’t be able to use the party’s name or receive endorsement fees. Since they cannot run concurrently in both single-seat districts and proportional representation, if they lose in the electoral district, they won’t have the chance for a comeback, and they will simply be defeated.

It appears to be a harsh punishment from the party, offering no support for what is the most crucial election for politicians. However, the mid-level lawmakers of the Abe faction argue that the reality is different, and it’s just a superficial settlement before the April by-elections, explaining further:

“We won’t see a bloody battle with another endorsed candidate from the Liberal Democratic Party in the same electoral district, like what happened with Prime Minister Koizumi’s postal privatization dissolution. The LDP’s candidate will be absent, and if they manage to defeat the opposition candidate in the electoral district, they will be additionally endorsed.

The remaining three executives, including Hagiuda, have already resigned from party positions, so if it’s just a suspension of party positions, it will be a formal penalty. Prime Minister Kishida likely wants to enact a political performance by conducting the hearing himself and implementing strict penalties.”

In reality, there is an extremely high chance that these executives will succeed in the election. A veteran lawmaker from the Abe faction explains:

“The reason the LDP remains the ruling party is that it endorses strong candidates for elections. Nishimura is considered the ‘election demon’ of the Seiwa-kai, constantly handing out copies of maps to his secretaries and sending them to visit households, meticulously securing the electoral district, even requiring detailed reports on whether every member of the family supports the party whose poster is on the gate. Even without the LDP’s endorsement, independent candidates without the party’s name will have no problem winning. Shiotani, the chairman, is considered risky due to his old age and weakness in elections, but the other executives will likely make a comeback.”

Even if scandalous behavior is exposed, LDP lawmakers consider themselves purified if they survive the election, and they continue to hold their positions. This seemingly severe punishment is, in reality, a gesture of favor. Will we see a similar scene after the next election?