Nippon Ishin Power Struggle: Former Leader Baba Reveals His Future

Is it the downside of a generational shift?

On the night of January 23, the day before the ordinary session of the Diet was convened, more than 20 men and women gathered at a modest izakaya in Akasaka, Tokyo. A gathering titled “Japan Innovation Party: Informal Discussion between Parliamentary Executives and the Media” was being held.

An invitation email for the gathering, sent from the Japan Innovation Party’s parliamentary office to TV and newspaper reporters, contained the following message:

“Due to various circumstances, this will be a paid event. A fee of 7,000 yen will be collected on the day, so please understand.”

On December 1 of last year, Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura (49) was appointed as the new party leader. He named former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara (62) as co-representative and promoted younger members such as Secretary-General Ryohei Iwatani (44) and Policy Chief Hitoshi Aoyagi (46).

Meanwhile, former leader Nobuyuki Baba (59) and former Diet Affairs Chief Takashi Endo (56) were not given any roles. The two had built cross-party connections, personally communicating with figures such as former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (76) and LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama (79). In return for supporting government bills and budgets, they had secured cooperation for Japan Innovation Party policies, such as the Osaka-Kansai Expo. Their efforts had helped the party establish itself as the second-largest opposition force. However, their exclusion has caused divisions within the party.

“The arrogance of the newly promoted Iwaya and Aoyagi has become a hot topic. They are competent, but even assigned reporters can no longer enter their offices. Most Japan Innovation Party lawmakers traditionally keep their doors open, welcoming visitors.

At the gathering on the 23rd, Iwaya was heard complaining, ‘LDP Secretary-General Moriyama won’t meet with me. I’ve never had a one-on-one conversation with him.’ Meanwhile, Aoyagi expressed skepticism about the plan for opposition party primaries aimed at unifying candidates in single-member districts for the Upper House election, saying, ‘It’s realistically difficult.’

Among the new leadership, the only one with a direct line to the Ishiba faction is Maehara. While some privately mock him as a political nomad and an outsider, in reality, they are completely dependent on his personal connections.” (A participating journalist)

Advocating a break from old politics

Ishin’s approval rating remains sluggish at 2.5% according to a JNN survey (conducted on January 4-5). It lags behind the Democratic Party for the People at 11% and the Constitutional Democratic Party at 8.2%, solidifying its position as the third-largest opposition party.

“The ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito is 13 seats short of a majority in the House of Representatives. There have been reports speculating whether Baba and Endo might join the LDP. There are also rumors that they might form a new party if they can gather five members,” said a political reporter from a major national newspaper.

Amid these circumstances, the drinking gathering on the 23rd—intended to build relationships with major media outlets—appears to have deepened the rift between the new and former leadership.

The downside of politics driven by drinking and eating

The founder of Ishin and former Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto (55) was furious when Ishin’s proportional representation votes dropped by 3 million to 5.1 million in the October House of Representatives election, falling behind the Democratic Party for the People, which garnered 6.17 million votes. He attributed the cause to the “drinking and eating politics” funded by policy activity expenses under figures like Baba. On November 13 of last year, he criticized the party on X (formerly Twitter):

“The former leadership of Ishin in national politics, led by Baba and Fujita, insisted that drinking and eating by politicians funded through policy activity expenses was indispensable in Nagatacho. As a result, Ishin in national politics has been abandoned by the unaffiliated voters.”

Yoshimura, aligning with Hashimoto, also condemned the old leadership on November 12 during his candidacy announcement for the party leadership election, stating, “I want to break away from the drinking and eating politics and old politics in Nagatacho.” He further emphasized that for party-funded dinners aimed at information exchange, the expenditure per person would be capped at 5,000 yen as a rule, with any excess requiring a check on the participants and purpose.

“The new leadership is targeting drinking and eating politics, but under the Abe administration, Hashimoto himself had dinner meetings with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Kan. The gathering in Akasaka on the 23rd could also be seen as part of this drinking and eating politics, which raises the question of whether there’s a contradiction here,” said the same reporter.

When trying to approach Maehara in front of the izakaya where the informal gathering was held, a party staff member from Ishin’s parliamentary office intervened, grabbing the reporter’s smartphone and stating:

“We’re collecting the proper participation fees from the reporters, so this doesn’t fall under drinking and eating politics.”

Views on the theory of withdrawal from the restoration

On the other hand, when confronted after the plenary session on the 24th, Baba said, “We need to clarify whether drinking parties are acceptable or not for Ishin,” and continued:

“If it’s somewhere like Torikizoku, it can be done cheaply, but with fellow lawmakers, there are things that shouldn’t be overheard by others. If you’re trying to protect confidential information or personal data and want to book a private room, it’s impossible with 5,000 yen. At yesterday’s gathering with the media, we ended up going 2,000 yen over the 7,000 yen fee, and I made things difficult for the lawmakers and staff over something trivial.”

It seems that Baba is not bothered by the criticism of drinking and eating politics from figures like Hashimoto. Baba, with his arms crossed, stated:

“When Matsui retired, he said, ‘I leave the rest to you, Baba.’ Even though I’m like the 8th catcher, I’ve been working hard to protect and grow the organization. It would have been easier to just lie down at my quarters and drink beer, but I thought about growing Ishin and met with various people. Since we’re going to eat anyway, I thought it would be better to meet with someone and gather information or form connections rather than eating lunch alone in my quarters. Building human relationships provides valuable information. Expanding my network makes it easier to take action. By listening to many opinions, ideas are born. I’ve been working hard for Ishin.”

The fact that LDP Secretary-General Moriyama doesn’t meet with Ishin’s Secretary-General Iwaya is likely because he values his relationships with Baba and Endo. It’s a message that says, “I value the relationships I’ve built,” and perhaps also a message asking, “If you’re going to treat me this way in Ishin, how about working together?”

“Not at all,” Baba said, waving his hands.

He continued:

“I was with the LDP when I was a city councilor in Sakai, but in 2010, Matsui invited me, and we all launched Osaka Ishin no Kai, and I’ve been with Ishin ever since. There have been both good times and tough times. If I were to move to another party or start a new one, I’d just retire.”

When asked again if Moriyama was trying to drive a wedge into Ishin’s internal strife, Baba smiled and said, “Let’s drink next time. We’ll talk then,” and got into the elevator.