The Severe Talent Shortage Behind Japan Innovation Party’s Leadership Candidate Pool

After losing the election by himself.

The leadership election for the Japan Innovation Party, set for December 1, has failed to generate much excitement.

In the House of Representatives election, the party lost six seats, dropping from 44 to 38. While other opposition parties, excluding the Communist and Social Democratic parties, significantly gained seats, the Japan Innovation Party suffered a notable setback.

In response to the election results, Party Leader Nobuyuki Baba (59) resigned, and a leadership election was scheduled. Hirofumi Yoshimura (49), Governor of Osaka, was quickly confirmed to continue leading the Osaka branch of the party, along with three other candidates: Ryuji Kanemura (45), a member of the House of Representatives; Seiki Soramoto (60), also a member of the House of Representatives; and Shigefumi Matsuzawa (66), a member of the House of Councillors.

What stands out is that, aside from Governor Yoshimura, all the other candidates are from constituencies outside Osaka, which hints at a sense of urgency within the Osaka faction of the party. A member of the Osaka branch of the party revealed:

“In the House of Representatives election, Osaka won all its races. However, there were three or four districts where the battle was extremely close until the very end. We were helped by the self-destructive ‘2 million yen issue,’ where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidates were given 2 million yen by their party branches. That shift in momentum helped us significantly. Honestly, the next election could be tough in Osaka as well. Against this backdrop, most of the Osaka faction strongly supports Yoshimura. It’s only natural that the push for Yoshimura, who has overwhelming name recognition, is so strong.”

Within the party, there is a strong belief that Governor Yoshimura’s victory in the Japan Innovation Party’s leadership election is a certainty. Unless something extraordinary happens, he is likely to wear three hats: Governor of Osaka, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai, and leader of the Japan Innovation Party. However, voices of skepticism are emerging in Nagatacho. A veteran member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) expresses concern:

“From a common-sense perspective, balancing the role of governor with national politics is difficult. Local administration and national politics are fundamentally different. Even if a reformist party is at the forefront, without the logic of numbers or cooperation with other parties, it’s nothing more than a pipe dream. I believe the previous administration understood that well. In fact, it’s possible to predict that, at least in national politics, it might have been better to keep Baba as the leader.”

The Current Situation of “Talent Shortage”

A veteran secretary from the Constitutional Democratic Party compares the situation to their own party and explains.

“Although our leadership election didn’t generate much excitement, there was a sense of relief within the party when House of Representatives member Harumi Yoshida (52) raised her hand. Parties without a strong female candidate tend to lose their centripetal force. In fact, after Yoshida announced her candidacy, support requests for her increased, and her name recognition and influence within the party grew. Plus, if there’s no freshness, party members and the public lose interest. I think what’s missing in the Innovation Party’s leadership race is precisely that.”

 

When speaking to those close to the Japan Innovation Party, the keyword lack of talent always comes up. While the party is active in utilizing social media and engaging in eye-catching statements to attract voters, there is a shortage of individuals who can play roles in party negotiations, policy implementation, or ground-level activities. A member of the Japan Innovation Party laments, “There are fewer lawmakers willing to take on dirty work.”

“The reason Fumitake Fujita (43) was appointed as secretary-general was because his ability to handle such roles was recognized. There are very few lawmakers capable of responding to internal troubles or scandals without running away. If Yoshimura becomes the leader, the first thing that will be questioned is his ability to manage behind-the-scenes and act as a negotiator. On the policy side, the loss of former House of Representatives member Taisuke Ono (50) was a significant blow. He was an extremely capable lawmaker.”

The approval rating dropped even in the public opinion poll conducted by Kyodo News after the House of Representatives election. While it is hoped that the inauguration of the new leader will serve as a catalyst, the reaction within the party remains skeptical. A member of the Osaka Ishin no Kai mentioned earlier said:

“Mr. Yoshimura is our last stronghold. He probably did not wish to take on the role of leader of Nippon Ishin no Kai at this timing. Even so, he was persuaded by those around him and reluctantly stepped up. The results of next summer’s House of Councillors election will truly determine the future of the party. Starting in spring, we also have to deal with the challenge of the Osaka Expo.

The policy is to field strong candidates from constituencies close to Osaka, but the number of competitive ‘resources’ is limited. This trend is particularly noticeable in areas like Hyogo and Kyoto, where we see opportunities. It is significant that we were able to nominate Mr.Shohei Niimi (35), a former Kansai TV announcer with strong name recognition in the Kansai region, in Kyoto, but his qualities as a politician remain unknown.”

Nippon Ishin no Kai faces a period of transformation. Will the new leader be able to dispel the sense of stagnation lingering within the party?