Shinjiro Koizumi’s Popularity Declines as Sanae Takaichi Eyes Opportunity Amid Potential Leadership Election Upheaval

Shinjiro Koizumi, regarded as the leading candidate in the LDP leadership election (voting on September 27), is “losing momentum.”

At his candidacy announcement on the 6th, a freelance journalist asked the impolite question,

“If you become Prime Minister and attend the G7, won’t you embarrass yourself due to your low intellectual level?”

Without being shaken,

“I’ll form the best team to make up for where I’m lacking.”

Koizumi responded.

 

The Meaning of a ‘Mere 1% Difference’

This response boosted Koizumi’s standing, and in some media outlets’ surveys on candidates people want to see as Prime Minister, he ranked second, just behind Shigeru Ishiba. In the leadership election, if no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting by both Diet members and party members nationwide, a runoff is held between the top two candidates.

“There are a total of nine candidates running in the leadership race. With so many candidates, it’s unlikely the election will be decided in the first round. According to the predictions, Ishiba’s ‘victory’ in the first round is almost certain. The question is who his opponent will be, and Koizumi was considered the strongest contender, but..” (Nagatacho insider)

It is said that Koizumi’s popularity has suddenly plummeted.

In a unique survey conducted by Nippon TV, published on the 12th, targeting party members and supporters, Ishiba was in the lead with 25%. Takaichi Sanae was second with 18%, and Koizumi was third with 17%.

“Takaichi is rapidly rising, while Koizumi is struggling. Some view the mere 1-point difference as just a margin of error, but former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who supports Koizumi, has reportedly instructed those around him to make further efforts.”

Said a political reporter from a national newspaper.

“It’s certain that Koizumi will lose momentum.”

“In the debate, he will definitely slip up. Maybe he’s not confident in his policies, or perhaps he’s bad at ad-libbing. The reason we’ve rarely seen him on televised debate programs is said to be because Koizumi’s side has been avoiding them. Among younger lawmakers, Kobahawk (Takayuki Kobayashi) is definitely preferred over Koizumi.”

What’s currently stirring controversy is the “review of dismissal regulations.” Like his father, Junichiro, who championed postal privatization, Koizumi is advocating for “regulatory reform without sanctuary,” but some interpret this as “liberalization of dismissals,” sparking backlash.

In response, at the debate on the 13th, Koizumi said,

“What remains unresolved is the gap between regular and non-regular employment. If we are to create an environment where non-regular workers can more easily be hired as regular employees, we need to change the current rules of the labor market. We will have large corporations provide even more reemployment support.”

He thus “adjusted his course,” emphasizing not the liberalization of dismissals, but creating a path from non-regular to regular employment. To this, the aforementioned young lawmaker raised objections.

 

Mr. Takaichi’s “Achilles’ heel” is

“Many people likely felt inconsistency in his statements. Even if he aims to promote the shift from non-regular to regular employment, does he truly understand the current state of Japanese companies? There’s also the risk of a ‘reverse effect,’ where regular employees end up becoming more like non-regular workers. Saying is easy, doing is hard. Among lawmakers and party members, there’s an increasing number of voices asking, ‘Is Koizumi really up to the task?'” (the aforementioned national newspaper reporter)

The other candidates are baring their fangs at the weakened Koizumi. During the debate on the 14th, Yoko Kamikawa raised questions about foreign policy, Katsunobu Kato asked about dismissal regulations, and Sanae Takaichi inquired about ride-sharing. 

“Everyone is aiming for an ‘own goal’ caused by a slip of the tongue. Koizumi is said to be staying up late every night, fine-tuning policies with close aides and preparing anticipated responses. However, he tends to freeze when asked about anything outside of the expected questions. It’s also not a good look when he repeatedly checks the notes in front of him. He will likely continue to be bombarded with attacks,” according to a Nagatacho insider.

He continues. Takaichi, which is rapidly rising, is still Takaichi.

“There’s information that the Abe faction, which was expected to support her, has split, and votes are flowing to Kobayashi.”

With only a short time left until the fateful voting day, the situation has suddenly become much more unpredictable.