Shinjirō Koizumi’s Fall to Third Place Inside His Camp’s Pre-Vote Resignation

Facing a sharp slowdown ……

With just five days left until the voting and counting of the LDP presidential election (September 27), former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (43) finished a debate at the party headquarters on September 22 and headed to the luxurious Chinese restaurant “Fureika,” favored by celebrities.

This restaurant is known within the LDP as a favorite spot of former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai (85). The evening course ranges from 14,300 to 44,000 yen, a price that seems out of reach for the average citizen.

Although not publicly known, Koizumi is known for his love of shark fin, leading one to wonder if he indulged in high-end cuisine.

“Koizumi has been gathering supporting lawmakers for dinner at high-end restaurants almost every night. During the day, he treats them to high-quality lunch boxes from places like Jojoen and KINTAN, as well as bento from the New Otani, earning high praise from members of the Diet. He brought in Ken Saito (Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, 65) to his camp on the 17th after Saito abandoned his candidacy due to a lack of supporters, gathering 58 Diet votes. While he was strategizing for the runoff vote, his party member votes have been stagnating. According to a reliable survey by Yomiuri Shimbun and Nippon Television (conducted from September 14 to 15 and 21 to 22), he has been stuck in third place for two consecutive weeks, causing his camp to become anxious.

Party member votes are said to be closer to the public’s perception, and if he doesn’t secure first or second place here, he won’t be regarded as the face of the election. The deadline for party member voting is September 26, but the distribution of party member votes will be mostly known one to two days before the voting and counting. If he remains in third place, he won’t be able to count on the support of about 20% of lawmakers who are currently watching the situation, and even those who have already expressed their support may pull back at the last moment,” said a source from Koizumi’s campaign team.

In an emergency opinion poll conducted by Nikkei and TV Tokyo, announced on August 23, Koizumi ranked first in the category of who is suitable to be the next Prime Minister, surpassing former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba (67). However, in a survey conducted by the same company from September 13 to 15, he fell to third place, overtaken by Sanae Takaichi (63), Minister for Economic Security. In a Kyodo News survey, he is also in third place for party member votes.

Relying on “Youth and Momentum”

Shu Watanabe (62), a member of the House of Representatives from the Constitutional Democratic Party, analyzed the direction of the presidential election as follows:

“While he has proposed revising dismissal regulations, the core of labor market reform, it is clear that he is speaking without a deep understanding or knowledge of the subject. In 2013, during the Abe administration, it was stated that ‘there is no idea of liberalizing solutions through monetary compensation,’ but it seems he is unaware of that background. Koizumi’s words sound pleasant, but they lack grounding, leading LDP members to worry, ‘Is it just youth and momentum? That’s risky.’”

Although he was seen as the face of the election with exceptional star quality capable of overshadowing issues related to under-the-table money, he often provided responses that strayed from the questions during debates. This has revealed a lack of understanding of policies and insufficient experience as a politician.

“He lacks the ability to check drafts written by his brain trust and ask, ‘Isn’t this strange?’ He’s not thinking through issues on his own, and because he’s not speaking in his own words, he cannot discern what is genuine and what is not,” Watanabe noted.

In light of Koizumi’s struggles, the party’s elders have stepped in. Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori (87), who holds influence within the old Abe faction, praised him in the Hokuriku Newspaper on September 16.

“Shinjiro sometimes comes to my office. When he brings back snacks from Yokosuka and says they were delicious, he brings the same ones again. He’s charming and has a good heart. His decision-making as a politician is swift, and that must come from his father.”

Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (75) showed up to support him during a street speech held in front of JR Sakuragicho Station. Although he had been resting his body in the car just prior and didn’t appear to be in good health, Suga sent a message of encouragement.

“I want to entrust Japan’s leadership to him. With that feeling, I’m supporting him.”

Distance between Shinjiro and the media

Despite receiving fervent support from the party’s elders, a member of Koizumi’s election campaign team is feeling the pressure.

“Ten members from the Ganesha Club, a group close to Suga, have listed their names as supporters, but many of them are worried about the election and are trying to bring Shinjiro to their local areas. It seems that Saito is receiving overtures from the Ishiba camp behind the scenes, but we don’t know how serious that is. Mori is claiming to have united 40 members of the Abe faction, but the reality is unclear, and if Mori, who has a negative public perception due to the under-the-table money issues, steps in, it could drive away party members’ votes.”

A member of the Koizumi campaign responsible for media relations, referred to as A, has shown a disconnect in their approach. As noted in a related article titled “Exclusive: Shinjiro Koizumi Sent a Shocking Document Asking for 50,000 Yen to His Local Supporters,” 

“(The secretary of the Hirakawa Club, responsible for the LDP) had offered a group interview to all candidates in the presidential election, but the campaign declined, citing a busy schedule. However, all other candidates agreed, and after a second request was made, it seems there was also a joint interview request from sports newspapers, resulting in a collective interview being held on the 21st. The readers of national and local papers differ from those of sports newspapers, so naturally, the questions during the interview didn’t align. Shinjiro passionately talked about labor issues and made a baffling statement, ‘I was the first to have a child while serving as a minister,’ with a proud look on his face. After the interview, when a visit to Futtsu City in Chiba Prefecture was announced, only NHK, representing the media, expressed interest in accompanying him. Media outlets that initially reported positively on him are starting to distance themselves.”

Today, the presidential election is being held, featuring a fierce competition among three candidates. While Koizumi is satisfying his appetite for his favorite shark fin dish, attempts to lure support from other camps are likely underway. Although it once seemed within reach of the presidency, it remains uncertain whether he will make it to the runoff. He stands at a critical juncture.