Afghanistan in Turmoil: Danger of Outbreak of “Civil War in Hell

The invasion of Afghanistan by the Taliban, a militant group that began when the U.S. military began its complete withdrawal from the country, ended on August 15 with the capture of the capital, Kabul, and the declaration of victory. Meanwhile, the country is in turmoil, with more than 250,000 refugees in the country.

In the midst of this situation, anti-Taliban forces are gathering under the leadership of the “son of a hero. That person is Ahmad Masood, 32, the son of former Defense Minister Masood, who was once a central figure in the opposition and was assassinated two days before 9/11. About 9,000 people, including government troops, have joined the “Northern Alliance,” which is led by him. Ahmad Masood told a Saudi satellite television station, “The Taliban will not last long.

“The Taliban will not last long. We are ready to defend our country and warn of a bloody situation.

On the other side of the conflict, the Taliban announced via social networking sites on April 22 that “Islamic fighters are on their way to conquer the country. Tensions are higher than ever. Journalist Toshihiro Yamada, an expert on international affairs, has warned of the danger of a large-scale civil war breaking out.

“China and Russia have already announced their acceptance of the new government and will provide weapons and human support if a civil war breaks out. China and Russia have already announced their acceptance of the new government and will provide weapons and human support in the event of a civil war, while the US may support anti-Taliban forces in the north. President Biden is stubbornly pushing for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, and at the same time, government officials and other personnel are scheduled to leave the country. This will mean the end of the peace negotiations that have been going on inside Afghanistan.

As was done 20 years ago under the former Taliban regime, it is likely that funds and supplies will be secretly channeled to anti-Taliban forces via third countries. If this happens, the fighting will be on a large scale. This is a worst-case scenario, but it could result in more bloodshed than the 120,000-plus casualties of the past two decades.

The Islamic State and the international terrorist organization al-Qaeda are also on the move, with one member of the security forces killed and three others wounded in a sniper attack at Kabul International Airport on March 23 by forces believed to be Islamic State. Kosuke Tsuneoka, a journalist familiar with the situation in Afghanistan, predicts that the Islamic State will continue its attacks.

“Kosuke Tsuneoka, a journalist familiar with the situation in Afghanistan, predicts that the Islamic State will continue its attacks. On the other hand, the first thing the Taliban did after coming to power was to execute Islamic State leaders imprisoned by the Kabul police. The rivalry between the two sides is deep-rooted. At the moment, the Islamic State is not well-equipped, so its attacks are localized, but the situation is unpredictable.

On the other hand, al-Qaeda is quietly waiting for the time when the influence of the U.S. military and other countries will disappear and Afghanistan will become a completely non-intervention zone. Intelligence is their specialty. It would not be surprising if al-Qaeda operatives inside Afghanistan are taking advantage of the fact that they are Muslims to coerce new government officials into turning and extracting inside information.

Afghanistan is a land of conflicting agendas. Izuru Sugawara, an international political analyst, says that even after the chaos is overcome and the Taliban regime is formally established, a new war may break out depending on diplomatic capabilities.

The immediate problem is the economy,” he said. The immediate problem is the economy, and as a quick fix, they may use Islamic extremism as a bargaining chip. For example, they will force China to support them in exchange for cracking down on Uighur extremists. They intentionally let the extremists go free and threaten China saying, ‘If you want us to control them, you have to pay money. If they destabilize the surrounding area and start to beg for support, it will cause collusion with terrorist organizations. Afghanistan may become a ‘base of terrorist organizations’ again. If this happens, the international community will move to suppress it by force, and blood will be spilled in Afghanistan.

Will the day of true peace ever come?

From the September 10, 2021 issue of FRIDAY