“Evidence that the Kishida administration may be short-lived

Fumio Kishida, the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has finally made up for last year’s defeat and climbed to the top. It must have been a deeply emotional moment for him when he launched the “Japanese version of the income doubling plan” and defeated Taro Kono, the minister in charge of vaccines, in the first round of voting.

Mr. Kishida’s words and actions were covered in the media every day, and he succeeded in boosting the LDP’s popularity.

However, there was no sense of elation. The new Kishida administration is off to a rocky start.

“At first glance, Mr. Kishida seems to be lucky. At first glance, Kishida looks lucky, but that may not necessarily be the case.

The first is the “bunt” displayed by incumbent Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga at the end of his term.

The first was a “bunt” by the incumbent Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga at the end of the day. Suga decided to cancel all emergency declarations and priority measures to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus, which had been issued in response to the epidemic, by the deadline of September 30. The number of people undergoing treatment at home, which at one time exceeded 130,000, has been reduced to about 30,000, and the resumption of the serving of alcoholic beverages in restaurants and karaoke, etc. The birth of the new leader comes at a time when the pent-up anxiety and dissatisfaction of the people is beginning to dissipate.

The fact that economic and social activities have started to take off and the administration is able to send out a positive message is an opportunity that the Kan administration did not have, and appears to be a “leftover.

But what happens next is likely to be what many people expect. Shigeru Omi, chairman of the Subcommittee on Countermeasures to Combat Infectious Diseases of the New Coronavirus, pointed out on April 28, “If everyone tries to return to their normal lives at once, there is a high probability that the infection will spread again and rebound,” and he did not hide his caution about the “sixth wave” after this fall.

While all four candidates in this year’s presidential election have made similar efforts to promote vaccines and develop and disseminate therapeutic drugs, the core of Mr. Kishida’s plan remains the government’s existing policy of “curbing the flow of people, securing hospital beds, and securing medical personnel. “Kishida has pledged “economic stimulus measures worth tens of trillions of yen” and insisted that businesses should be supported according to their scale of operations, not limited to specific regions or industries.

While the fight against coronas is said to take “two to three years plus,” according to Mr. Omi, the U.S. has announced that it will begin providing boosters to elderly people who have been vaccinated more than six months after the second dose, and President Biden received the vaccination on April 27. When the “sixth wave” arrives, will the government be able to explain the painful “tightening” to the public in a convincing manner, along with a menu of countermeasures, and demonstrate its ability to keep up with the global “battle for vaccines”? There is no end to the concern about Mr. Kishida, who has been pointed out as lacking in communication skills.

Another factor is the influence of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who hails from the Hosoda faction, the largest faction in the party, was unanimous in his support for Mr. Kishida’s victory.

While Mr. Kishida gained the greatest backing in the presidential election, he also lost his “free hand. It would be mild if he were to be asked to fill the post of the party’s No. 2 secretary general with Koichi Hagiuda, the minister of education, culture, sports, science and technology, and Akira Amari, the chairman of the party’s tax panel, who are close to Abe.

Kishida, who was eager to win over the conservative voters in the presidential election, is expected to face a headache sooner or later in his diplomacy with China.

Kishida, who insisted that “we will respond resolutely to issues such as China’s hegemony and the Taiwan Strait together with the United States, Australia, Europe, India and other countries that share our fundamental values,” also expressed his support for a draft resolution calling for an immediate halt to China’s human rights abuses. He also said that he intends to establish an assistant to the prime minister in charge of human rights issues.

However, the international community is still in a tense situation, with China applying for membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on September 16, followed by Taiwan on September 22. Since the TPP requires the consent of all member countries to join, China’s participation will not only hinder Taiwan but also the return of the United States.

The world will be watching to see how Mr. Kishida will steer the ship as the leader of Asia, and whether or not the new Kishida administration will be able to raise the issues of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and Hong Kong in the process. It is certain that the new Kishida administration will be forced to keep the voices of Abe and other conservatives in mind in this regard as well.

The upcoming lower house election in November will be the first obstacle that Kishida will have to overcome. If the election were to be held under the Kan administration, it was predicted that the LDP would surely lose its majority and that it would lose over 70 seats in the House of Representatives.

“However, in a poll conducted by Kyodo News on September 25 and 26, Kishida came in second with 22.4% of the vote, double the score of Kono (47.4%), the top candidate. Unlike the votes of party members, which are influenced by their support groups, and the votes of lawmakers, which are driven by the “logic of Nagata-cho,” there is no guarantee that a party leader who has been described as “unsophisticated” and “lacking in communication ability” will be well received in the national election.

Even if the new government’s “congratulatory price” allows it to get through the lower house election without a hitch, the upper house election will be held next summer. In addition to the fact that there is still time for the opposition parties to assess the effects of the joint struggle in the lower house election and rebuild their systems before the upper house election, the possibility of a reaction from public opinion cannot be ruled out.

“Whether Kishida can break through the faction’s ‘ominous jinx’ will depend on next year’s Upper House election.

The question of whether Mr. Kishida will be able to break through the ‘ominous jinx’ of his faction will depend on next year’s upper house election. The Kishida faction, which was formed by former Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda, is the first to produce a prime minister since Kiichi Miyazawa, but if the factions that originated from the Kishida faction are included, former Prime Minister Taro Aso is one of them. The common denominator is that they allowed the LDP to take over the government and the LDP went into decline.

Mr. Kishida, who wrote “Ten-i muhou” in his campaign for the presidency, may not have much time to remain innocent and natural.