Are They Truly in Takaichi’s Corner? The Calculations of Aso, Shinjiro, and Kobayashi

Aso’s personal motives as well

Is this really a pro-Takaichi support group?

The Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers’ group known as the “National Power Research Group” was revealed on May 7. Its first meeting is scheduled for May 21.

What has attracted attention in Nagatacho is the prominence of its founders.

Leading the group is Taro Aso. Alongside him are major political figures occupying key positions in the government, including Shinjiro Koizumi, Defense Minister; Toshimitsu Motegi, Foreign Minister; and Takayuki Kobayashi, Chairman of the Policy Research Council.

“This group was established to support Prime Minister Takaichi. It was Aso who took the lead in creating it. And getting people such as Koizumi—who competed against Takaichi in the 2025 party leadership election—to join as founders was a masterstroke,” said a reporter from a national newspaper’s political desk.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had often been described as having a weak power base within the party. Furthermore, Aso was said to have been frustrated after not being consulted about the February general election dissolution, which reportedly created tension between them. Yet it is Aso who has now become the leading figure behind this support group.

According to political insiders, factional considerations within the Aso camp are part of the reason.

“The Aso faction remains the only faction in the LDP that still effectively exists, but it has a major problem: Aso has no clear successor. In other words, there is no prime ministerial candidate within the faction.

Taro Kono, who has previously run in party leadership elections, remains eager, but he is not particularly favored by Aso and lacks strong support within the faction. For Aso, having Takaichi—whom he helped elevate to the premiership—succeed is important for maintaining his own influence.”

But that may not be the whole story.

“There may also be personal motives involved for Aso himself,” said another LDP insider.

“At 85 years old, Aso’s biggest concern right now is passing his electoral district on to either his son or daughter. However, in his home prefecture of Fukuoka, things are much more complicated than they appear in Tokyo.”

Although Aso wields enormous influence as the party’s vice president, political conditions in his home region are far from stable.

“In Fukuoka, there is the powerful political figure Makoto Koga, who has long had a famously hostile relationship with Aso. Locals often say, ‘If Aso says right, Koga says left.’ Their rivalry is well known.

Although Koga retired from politics in 2012, he still retains considerable behind-the-scenes influence as an elder statesman of the Kochikai faction.”

Aso is considered a conservative hawk, while Koga is viewed as a moderate dove. According to those familiar with local politics, however, their rivalry cannot be explained by political beliefs alone—it is also rooted in a long history of personal and regional grievances.

Foreign Minister Motegi’s delicate position

“Although Aso and Koga belong to the same Liberal Democratic Party, they have repeatedly clashed in gubernatorial elections and by-elections for Fukuoka’s 6th district.

Moreover, Aso has not only been at odds with Koga but has also clashed with former Internal Affairs Minister Ryota Takeda of Fukuoka’s 11th district.

Aso likely intends to hand over his electoral base to one of his children in the next general election, but the LDP’s Fukuoka prefectural chapter is far from united. Naturally, Aso must be worried about what kind of opposition or obstruction might arise,” said the same LDP insider.

Public opinion is harsh when it comes to political dynasties.

In the February general election, Ken Yamamoto, Prime Minister Takaichi’s son-in-law, initially announced his candidacy but later withdrew from running in Fukui’s 2nd district.

“That is precisely why Aso likely wants Prime Minister Takaichi to remain in office through next September’s party leadership election and then help ensure that one of his children can smoothly receive party endorsement in the following general election.

Takaichi remaining in power means stability for the Aso family. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the National Power Research Group exists for that purpose,” the same LDP insider speculated regarding Aso’s intentions.

In fact, Takeda—one of Aso’s longtime rivals—announced on May 14 that his group would participate in the organization.

Takeda has long been close to Prime Minister Takaichi, but his participation is expected to be a significant gain for Aso.

Under Aso’s leadership, two of the group’s founders, Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayashi, are frequently mentioned as future candidates for party president. Political commentator Harumi Arima explains why they nevertheless joined what is being called the “Takaichi support group”:

“Koizumi and Kobayashi are still relatively young. Rather than directly challenging Takaichi in next year’s leadership election and risking defeat, they probably concluded it would be wiser to build a record of accomplishments as Defense Minister and Policy Research Council Chairman.

Neither of them has a faction behind them, so if they decide to run, they will need to gather support from others. For Kobayashi in particular, serving as the party’s policy chief is an ideal position from which to raise his profile.”

Meanwhile, the person occupying perhaps the most delicate position is Motegi.

He ran and lost in the 2024 and 2025 leadership elections.

“For Motegi, the next leadership election could very well be his last chance.

Yet there is talk that he joined this group because he hopes to receive a passing of the torch from Takaichi.

Prime Minister Takaichi has reportedly struggled with health issues since before taking office, and, above all, her close relationship with President Trump means that depending on developments involving Iran, there is a possibility that both could suffer politically.

If a situation arises in which the prime minister resigns, Motegi likely wants to build goodwill with both Takaichi and Aso and remain close to them.

He is highly capable administratively, so if an emergency situation emerges, it is not impossible that calls for ‘Motegi as prime minister’ could gain momentum,” said a television network political reporter.

The members who joined the group each appear to have their own hidden agendas.

Even so, many believe that the person who benefited most from its creation is Prime Minister Takaichi herself.

“For Prime Minister Takaichi, whose position within the party had been considered weak, the National Power Research Group will undoubtedly be a major source of support.

Naturally, she must be grateful to Aso.

Conversely, it also means that Aso’s influence within the administration has grown considerably,” Arima added.

In the political world, where people often say that the future is impossible to predict, each player appears to be pursuing the summit of power with their own ambitions and calculations.