Samurai MLB 13 Ranked SS to D Bold Expectation Scale
Rookie Murakami has hit in three straight games, Okamoto has hit his first home run, and Suzuki, Yoshida, Kanno, and Kikuchi have all played in the WBC.
First ever! Three consecutive Japanese starting pitchers
The Major League Baseball season has begun again this year. On TV talk shows, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ performances are being reported daily, but there are 13 samurai competing at the world’s highest level this season. FRIDAY has created an eight-level expectation ranking based on evaluations from baseball commentator Keiichi Yabu, MLB analyst Nachi Tomonari, and several reporters covering the scene in the U.S. Together with photos, this article looks ahead to the 2026 season for Japanese Major Leaguers. Note that San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish (39), who has announced he will miss the entire season due to injury, is excluded.
Shohei Ohtani (31) — Dodgers
Pitching: Expectation S — projected 10 wins
Batting: Expectation SS — projected 50 home runs
Postseason qualification probability: 99%. World Series championship probability: highest among all 30 teams. These are the remarkable figures calculated by the MLB analytics site “FanGraphs” for the Dodgers, who have won back-to-back championships over the past two years.
On March 31 (Japan time) against the Guardians, Roki Sasaki (24) delivered a dominant start, allowing just one run over nearly five innings. The following day, April 1, Shohei Ohtani (31) started on the mound, and on April 2, last season’s World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (27) also took the start. It marked the first time in Major League history that Japanese pitchers from the same team started three consecutive games.
“This year’s Ohtani is expected to deliver the greatest two-way season in history. His hitting hasn’t fully clicked yet, but despite being heavily targeted early in the season, he is maintaining a high on-base percentage by drawing walks. Once he hits two or three home runs, his pace will accelerate smoothly, so 50 homers is realistic—hence the SS rating. As a pitcher, he has developed new weapons like a 160 km/h+ four-seam fastball mixed with curveballs and sinkers, so his pitching expectation is S. Ten wins are expected.
However, in terms of pitching expectations this season, Yamamoto (SS) may come out on top. He ranked fourth in MLB’s Opening Day Power Rankings and is a Cy Young candidate. He is expected to surpass his win total from last season. Sasaki is rated C due to struggles in spring training, but if he delivers stable results in his first four starts, he could break out,” said Yabu.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (27) — Dodgers
Expectation SS — projected 15 wins
Last season, including the postseason, he pitched over 200 innings while maintaining a high level of performance. His durability is one of his strengths.
Roki Sasaki (24) — Dodgers
Expectation C
In his first start of the season on March 31, he allowed one run over nearly five innings in a strong outing, but took the loss due to lack of run support. The question is whether he can secure a permanent rotation spot.
3 consecutive home runs
Former Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillén (62), who has 1,764 career hits in Major League Baseball, praised Murakami Munetaka (26), who made his MLB debut with the same team, saying, “This guy is the real deal!”
“Starting the season with three consecutive games hitting home runs is impressive, but the key going forward will be how he adjusts to 160 km/h fastballs. There are still challenges, but he can be expected to hit 30 home runs in his first year. An A+ rating is appropriate,” said Tomonari.
Kazuma Okamoto (29), who crossed the ocean alongside Murakami, is also showing strong performance on both offense and defense, earning an A rating.
“The Blue Jays, his team, are a powerhouse that fought the Dodgers through Game 7 of last year’s World Series. He is expected to have more clutch opportunities. Okamoto has a high contact rate and strikes out less often, making him a good fit for the team’s style. His second home run on March 31 came off a pitch approaching 160 km/h, so his handling of fastballs is more than adequate. He is expected to outperform Murakami in batting average and surpass 20 home runs and 80 RBIs. His previously questioned defense at third base has also been handled without issue, earning praise from the coaching staff,” he added.
Tomoyuki Sugano (36), pitching for the Rockies with a B rating, faced his former teammate Okamoto on March 31. At Coors Field—known as the graveyard for pitchers due to its high altitude and hitter-friendly conditions—he aims for an ERA in the 3.00 range using his veteran pitching craft.
Murakami Munetaka (26) — White Sox
Expectation A+ — projected 30 home runs
He made a shocking debut with home runs in three consecutive games, but his defense and ability to handle elite fastballs remain uncertain. The key is to maintain his current form.
Kazuma Okamoto (29) — Blue Jays
xpectation A — projected 20 home runs, .280 batting average
Despite concerns about his defense at third base, he has handled it smoothly and produced highlight plays. He quickly secured a core role on a contending team.
omoyuki Sugano (36) — Rockies
Expectation B
The veteran right-hander, now in the later stage of his career, showcased refined pitching centered on breaking balls in the WBC. The question is whether he can replicate that in the regular season.
Seiya Suzuki (31, A+ rating), who played the WBC alongside Sugano and others, missed the start of the season due to injury during the tournament, but is expected to return in April and aims to surpass last year’s 30 home runs and 100 RBIs.
“Shota Imanaga (32, A rating) of the same Cubs team allowed four runs in less than six innings in his first start on March 30 and took the loss, but his offseason work on velocity has improved his stuff. However, in his third MLB season, hitters seem to be adjusting to him. To replicate his dominant 15–3 season from his first year, he needs a new out pitch in addition to his four-seam fastball and splitter.
Kodai Senga (33, A rating) of the Mets also has the ability to return as an ace if he refines pitches beyond his ghost fork,” said Yabu.
Seiya Suzuki (31) — Cubs
Expectation A+ — projected 30 home runs, 100 RBIs
He suffered an injury during the WBC game against Venezuela and missed the start of the season, but his hitting ability remains intact. Improving his batting average is the focus this season.
Shota Imanaga (32) — Cubs
Expectation A — projected 10 wins
Aiming to surpass his dominant MLB rookie season in 2024, where he recorded 15 wins and 3 losses, by expanding his pitching repertoire.
Kodai Senga (33) — Mets
Expectation A
He showed Cy Young-caliber pitching early last season but lost his form after an injury. The goal is to complete a full healthy season.
Wishing for a change of fortune
Masataka Yoshida (32) of the Red Sox has no issues with his hitting ability, but his expectation rating is C. Behind this is a complicated team situation.
“Besides Yoshida, there are four outfielders who combine top-tier Major League ability with youth, so he is not being given playing time. Even if they try to trade him, his high salary makes it difficult to find a suitor. It looks like it will be a season of patience,” said Tomonari.
Yusei Kikuchi (34) of the Angels is expected to serve again this season as an innings-eater, with an ERA around the 3.00 range. In the majors, pitchers who can consistently log many innings are highly valued, giving him a B+ rating.
In contrast to Kikuchi’s durability, Yuki Matsui (30), who experienced the disappointment of withdrawing due to injury and started the season on the injured list, has a D rating. He will first need to reduce his walk rate and home run rate to regain his team’s trust.
Masataka Yoshida (32) — Red Sox
Expectation C
He has the ability to hit .300 if given playing time. The question is whether he can make the most of limited opportunities and secure a starting role.
Yusei Kikuchi (34) — Angels
Expectation B+ — projected 180 innings
A starting pitcher who can consistently pitch around 170 innings without injury is a valuable asset in MLB.
Yuki Matsui (30) — Padres
Expectation D
He aimed to move beyond a relief role, but was sidelined by injury during camp. Expectations are now focused on his development during rehab.
“The player expected to perform at a Rookie of the Year level is Tatsuya Imai (27) of the Astros. In his debut on March 30, he allowed four runs in less than three innings, but his expectation rating remains A+. His spring training performances were dominant, featuring fastballs near 160 km/h, sharp-breaking forkballs and sliders, and well-timed changeups. If he improves his strike percentage, he should clear 10 wins in his first year without difficulty,” said Yabu.
This year, players outside the Dodgers’ Japanese trio may appear more frequently on television.
Tatsuya Imai (27) — Astros
Expectation A+ — projected 10 wins
Although his MLB debut of three innings and four runs allowed was rough, his raw power is unquestioned. The key will be improving fastball control.
From the April 17/24, 2026 issue of “FRIDAY”
PHOTO： AFLO