<figure id="attachment_453935" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-453935" style="width: 2500px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="bfe1aa9b"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/01/8835f2cce8ce7aaa241c52effe4fbf44.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-453935" class="wp-caption-text">Damage from the M7.5 earthquake that struck off the coast of Aomori Prefecture last December. In the town of Tohoku in Aomori Prefecture, the ground cracked and a road caved in. A car almost fell into a hole.</figcaption></figure>
<h3> This year could be the year of the earthquake.</h3>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> In the year &#8217;26, we need to be especially careful about large-scale earthquakes. Japan has entered a season of extreme disasters of a different magnitude.</span></p>
<p> Dr. Hiroki Kamata, a professor emeritus at Kyoto University and a specialist in earth sciences, sounded the alarm.</p>
<p> The most recent major earthquake that comes to mind is the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake that struck off the east coast of Aomori Prefecture on December 8, 2011. The concern is the earthquake that could be triggered. The Chishima Trench in Hokkaido and the Japan Trench off the northeastern coast of Japan have frequently been hit by massive earthquakes with magnitudes of up to M9 or greater. Mr. Kamata continues.</p>
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<p><span class="strongInContent"> The 1963 Etorofu earthquake (M8.5) was preceded by an M7 earthquake. Last December&#8217;s earthquake off the coast of Aomori Prefecture could also be a foreshock.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> In past Chishima Trench and Japan Trench earthquakes, huge tsunamis hit a wide area of the Pacific coast from Hokkaido to Kanto at the same time. Based on studies of coastal sediments, tsunamis of up to 29.7 meters are expected to hit Miyako City, Iwate Prefecture, and tsunamis of over 26 meters are expected to hit Erimo Town, Hokkaido, and Hachinohe City, Aomori Prefecture (second image)&#8221; (comments below by Mr. Kamata).</span></p>
<p> Furthermore, this year, one thing to watch out for is an earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is estimated to have a 70% probability of occurring within 30 years. On December 19 of last year, the government&#8217;s Central Disaster Prevention Council released damage estimates in the event of an M7-class earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area. The maximum death toll would be approximately 18,000. The number of disaster-related deaths would be around 40,000, about 400,000 buildings would be completely destroyed or burnt down, the total damage would amount to about 83 trillion yen, and Tokyo&#8217;s functions would be almost completely destroyed.</p>
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<p><span class="strongInContent"> One-third of Japan&#8217;s total population is concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. According to the scenario announced by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government in May 2010, stockpiled supplies will run short from three days after the earthquake, and from one month onward, people overflowing into evacuation centers will begin to suffer physical and mental health problems one after another. &#8230;&#8230;</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> In the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, lifelines stopped for a long period of time, but even in the Tokyo metropolitan area, desperate lives without water, electricity, or food are possible.</span></p>
<div data-friday-nextpage-lead=" Why do we say that a major earthquake of the direct type will occur in the near future?"></div>
<h3>Identifying When the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake Will Occur!</h3>
<p> Currently, the most serious damage feared is an M9-class Nankai Trough mega earthquake. The epicenter of the quake will be in the &#8220;Tokai,&#8221; &#8220;Tonankai,&#8221; &#8220;Nankai,&#8221; and &#8220;Hyuuganada&#8221; seismic zones, and the maximum death toll will be more than 290,000 people. The government puts the probability of a Nankai Trough earthquake occurring within 30 years at 60-90% or more (20-50% according to another method of calculation), but according to Kamata, the time of the next one is fairly certain.</p>
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<p><span class="strongInContent"> According to Kamata, the time of the next earthquake is fairly certain. &#8220;In the Nankai Trough earthquakes, there is &#8216;rebound uplift,&#8217; in which the ground rises as the earthquake occurs. The amount of uplift has been measured at the port of Murozu in Kochi Prefecture since the Edo period, and it is known that the higher the uplift, the longer the period before the next occurrence.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> Estimating from the height of the previous one (1854) and the previous one (1946), we can predict the timing of the occurrence. In other words, the next Nankai Trough earthquake will occur five years before or after 2035.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> In the 40 years prior to the Nankai Trough earthquake, there have historically been frequent inland earthquakes of the direct-underground type. In recent years, the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake in 1995, the Kumamoto earthquake in 2004, and the northern Osaka earthquake in 2006 have occurred one after another. The risk of an inland earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area is increasing by the day.</span></p>
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<p> The Tokyo metropolitan area is not the only area that will be hit by an earthquake. The government&#8217;s Central Disaster Prevention Council also warns of a tsunami from a massive Nankai Trough earthquake.</p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> The Kanto region and the Izu Islands will also be hit by a huge tsunami of more than 10 meters. It would be large enough to submerge the many underground shopping centers in Tokyo in just 15 minutes or so.</span></p>
<p> The Chishima Trench and Japan Trench earthquakes, an earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area, and a massive Nankai Trough earthquake are all possible. &#8230;&#8230; Japan has entered the &#8220;season of disasters,&#8221; when unprecedented earthquakes hit the country one after another.</p>
<figure id="attachment_453938" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-453938" style="width: 1805px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="dd2c5b29"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/01/fdc4c4851650fd2e6fb08f2e691197c4.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-453938" class="wp-caption-text"> Estimated epicenter area and maximum tsunami height of a massive earthquake in the Kuril Islands and the Japan Trench</figcaption></figure>
<figure id="attachment_453937" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-453937" style="width: 2254px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="aa2a8191"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/01/4e37996ccd0c8add69f236d11f1e9c13.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-453937" class="wp-caption-text"> Uplift of the Nankai Trough mega earthquake observed at the port of Murozu and forecast for the year of the occurrence.</figcaption></figure>
<figure id="attachment_453939" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-453939" style="width: 2254px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="d2de71ca"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/01/75e308f7943049a247d59b431931e7e1.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-453939" class="wp-caption-text"> Maximum tsunami height forecast for Kanto and Izu Islands due to the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake</figcaption></figure>
<p> From the January 23, 2026 issue of FRIDAY</p>


 Kyodo News

 Hiroki Kamata, a specialist in earth science and professor emeritus at Kyoto University, warns that Japan could experience a tremendous earthquake this year. How can he make such a prediction? Kamata explains his shocking theory.

Japan is entering the &#8220;Season of Disaster&#8221; this year&#8230; The danger of &#8220;Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake &#038; Earthquake directly under the Tokyo Metropolitan Area&#8221; is surely imminent.

Japan is entering the “Season of Disaster” this year… The danger of “Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake & Earthquake directly under the Tokyo Metropolitan Area” is surely imminent.

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