LDP Presidential Election: Kishida, Mori, Aso, Kan, and other elders of old factions want to ride the winner’s horse.

The LDP has been talking about ‘renewal’ as a grand theme, but when you look at it from the outside, it is nothing more than a power struggle among the ‘old guard.

Ahead of the September 27th vote, political scientist Yukiko Amakawa dismissed the LDP presidential election as a “proxy war between the heads of old factions. With an unprecedented 11 names listed as candidates (as of August 21), the LDP presidential election has indeed taken on the appearance of a “power struggle that has been unraveled.

One of the first to formally announce his candidacy was Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, former minister in charge of economic security affairs, who said at a press conference on August 19, “I am not just showing my face. I am determined to win.

Tatsuo Fukuda, 57, who attended the press conference, also spoke of “breaking away from factions. He is taking a tactic of differentiation by pushing ‘newness’ to the forefront. He is making a great effort to appeal to the public.

Crafty former candidates for the presidency are also coming forward one after another.

Shigeru Ishiba, 67, who is challenging for the presidency for the fifth time, is a solitary man. He has never been good at dining with other Diet members and bowing to them to ask for their support. This time, however, he had dinner in July with Seijiro Eto (83), a member of the former Abe faction, and after a visit to Taiwan in August, he bowed down to ask for support in the presidential election, thereby securing his endorsers.

Digital Minister Taro Kono (61), who is making his third attempt, is also enthusiastic.

How far will he be able to carry his signature “maverick” style? How will he incorporate his policy of nuclear power phase-out into his pledges to the government? If he pays too much attention to Taro Aso (83), the leader of the faction, he will lose his ‘personality'” (journalist Tetsuo Suzuki).

Behind the candidates who have emerged in droves is the ambition and self-preservation of those in power who aim to be the kingmaker and “ride the winning horse.

Even if Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (67) narrowly wins the presidential election, he could lose his power completely if he loses the subsequent Upper House and Lower House elections. To preserve his own political influence, he withdrew from the presidential race. The 46 members of the former Kishida faction are still united and strong. They are trying to ingratiate themselves with the new president and act as a new kingmaker.

Not “renewal,” but “reorganization.

Mr. Aso, the only one to keep his faction alive, is still undecided. Mr. Suzuki’s view is as follows.

He said he will not make his position clear until September, but he must really feel that he has not chosen his main candidate.
At this point, it is possible that he will support Kono, but his aim is two-fold. One is to gain influence if he wins by taking out Mr. Kono, a member of the Aso faction. The other is that Mr. Kono is close to his rival as kingmaker, former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide (75). The aim may be to pull Mr. Kono away from Mr. Kan and reduce Mr. Kan’s power.”

Mr. Kan, who has maintained a presence with the “Koishi Kawa coalition” as his handcuff, appears to have solidified his support for former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43.

However, because he has been working as an anti-mainstream faction, some lawmakers close to Kan have a strong impression that he is a “sideline. They just want to use Shinjiro as the ‘face of the election,'” said a veteran secretary of the LDP.

Koizumi is attracting attention alongside Kobayashi as a fresh candidate in his 40s, but there are some factors that may be dragging him down. Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, 87, who has been heavily criticized for a slush fund scandal involving party funds, is pretending to be Koizumi’s guardian.

He is now the only person who can make his presence known to the public in the absence of the former Abe faction, which was dissolved and called itself the caretaker of the party. For Koizumi, who wants to compete on the basis of his newness, the support of the old guard is nothing but a nuisance.

Mr. Suzuki, mentioned above, managed to see the significance of the chaotic presidential election.

Some of the younger members carrying Mr. Kobayashi have taken him on to avoid being recruited by the elders. Prime Minister Kishida has dissolved the factions within the party, but the ‘power of numbers’ still remains. After the presidential election, the ‘Kobayashi Group’ will probably be formed. What we are being shown now is not a breakaway from old politics, but a realignment of factions within the LDP.

What they are all thinking about is “how to stay close to power. This is no way to achieve true “renewal.

From the September 6-13, 2024 issue of “FRIDAY