Takayuki Kobayashi, a 40-something candidate for president, does not cut into the “slush fund issue” for a “fundamental reason.
John F. Kennedy became president of the United States at the age of 43. Will the two 40-something candidates be the eye of the storm in the LDP presidential election to be held on September 27?
I have no name recognition at all,” he said. I want as many party members and citizens as possible to know about my vision and policies, even if it is just for a day.
Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, former minister in charge of economic and security affairs, held a press conference on August 19 to announce his candidacy for the presidency, explaining why he had chosen to run ahead of all other candidates. The press conference was attended by 24 Diet members who are expected to serve as nominees, mainly young people who were elected in the same term as Kobayashi and have been elected once, as well as 24 Diet members who are expected to serve as nominees. There are approximately 140 LDP members who have been elected four times or less and are defined as “young” within the LDP. This number is close to 40% of the 367 LDP members eligible to vote. If the younger members of the LDP turn out to support Kobayashi, he could become a major force in the LDP.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (67) dissolved his own faction, the Koikekai, and all the other factions in the LDP, with the exception of the Aso faction, followed suit. Eleven lawmakers have indicated their intention to run for president. There is talk of two candidates from the same faction, creating an unprecedented level of confusion.
I have a sense that the harmony of support is spreading.”
Tatsuo Fukuda, 57, former chairman of the General Assembly, who has declared his support for Kobayashi, affirmed this and continued, “I am talking with my colleagues who were elected in the same year.
When I was talking with my colleagues who won the election, we naturally agreed that we would go with Kobayashi. After talking with both senior and younger members, we came to the conclusion that Kobayashi was the best choice. Not only can he speak in an orderly and logical manner, but his words are filled with feeling and heart. His low name recognition, on the other hand, means that there is room for him to grow. I believe there is only room for growth.
Although most of the factions have been dismantled, the faction leader class continues to dine at high-end restaurants as in the past, and their words and actions are being discussed, such as the August 14 meeting between Deputy President Taro Aso (83) and Secretary General Toshimitsu Mogi (68) at a steak restaurant in Akasaka-mitsuke. Mr. Fukuda said, “We don’t have any money, so we go to ryotei restaurants.
We don’t have money, so we don’t eat at restaurants but communicate via remote meetings and messengers. The presidential election will be held on a ‘faction-free’ basis. (The Diet members (who attended Kobayashi’s press conference) are not nominators as such, but they have told the leaders of their old factions that they will vote for Kobayashi this time. (There may be some people who will cherish their sentiments (toward the leader), but we will proceed with this group of people.
Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, who is not a member of any faction, has also informed those around him of his intention to run for office, and is expected to hold a press conference soon. The LDP, which is facing headwinds from the faction’s slush fund scandal, may be aiming to impress the public with its “renewal” by fielding a candidate in his or her 40s for president.
However, Yukiko Amakawa, a political scientist, says , “Even if a young candidate in his or her 40s preaches ‘no more factions,’ it seems empty.
Kobayashi is also supporting former Secretary General Akira Amari, 74. He is aiming for his own reinstatement. With Mr. Amari, a heavyweight in the Aso faction, in the Kobayashi camp, he will be able to survive as a kingmaker once Mr. Kobayashi wins the big gold star. Koizumi never says it himself, but former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori (87) asks everyone he meets to take care of Shinjiro. This is a usual move to maintain his influence, but the words of Toshiaki Endo, 74, the first Olympic minister, and Yuko Obuchi, 50, the head of the election committee, will not go unchallenged. Ryota Takeda, 56, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, who is a member of the same Nikai faction as Kobayashi and was not pleased with Kobayashi’s rise to power, may also respond to Mori’s words, albeit reluctantly.
Former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide (75) has often mentioned Shinjiro’s name as a “future prime ministerial candidate” and has assigned him a nominee this time as well. The elders are clearly visible behind the young candidate.
Regarding the issue of slush funds, Kobayashi insists that he will work on political reforms such as transparency of policy activity expenses and the establishment of a third-party organization, but he adds, “The prosecutors, who have the authority to investigate the matter, have dropped the case. In such a situation, there are limits to the LDP’s investigations,” he also said that he would avoid pursuing the issue further.
Eleven of the Diet members who attended Kobayashi’s press conference to announce his candidacy were members of the former Abe faction. If we pursue the slush fund too much, we will lose prospects for support for the presidential election, especially from the former Abe faction. Since there are so many candidates in the race, no candidate is likely to win a majority of votes in the first round of voting; if the first-place finisher does not win a majority, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates; in the first round of voting, the number of votes for Diet members and party members is equal, 367 each, but in the runoff between the top two candidates, the number of party members will decrease to 47 for prefectural prefectures. On the other hand, the Diet member votes will remain at 367. The Diet members’ votes will account for a larger weight. Since the Diet member vote determines the outcome of the election, it may be impossible to implement reforms that would cause pain to Diet members.
In retrospect, when the factional slush fund scandal broke, LDP lawmakers, including younger members, remained silent, except for a few, such as former Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba (67). Now that the money laundering scandal has settled down and the presidential election is approaching, they are suddenly calling for reform of the party by the younger generation.
The presidential election must be a fundamental change in the LDP,” he said. “The LDP needs to make further amendments to the Politics and Money Act, or change its structure so that it cannot be manipulated by its elders. In gathering nominees, I want to make the LDP the kind of government I want to lead, not the conventional one based on the number of nominees. This is the kind of LDP I want to change. It would be good to have a candidate who gathers nominees with his policies, aspirations, and view of the nation, saying, “If you agree with me, please become a nominee.
The birth of a new LDP president in his 40s would give a sense of “renewal. However, this alone is nothing more than a change of “cover” to prolong the LDP’s life. The new LDP president must be someone who will fundamentally change the old LDP structure itself.
Interview and text by: Daisuke Iwasaki PHOTO: Afro (1st and 2nd) Daisuke Iwasaki