Further Headwinds for LDP as Nagata-cho’s God of Elections Reveals Kishida’s Removal Fate

Shinji Ishimaru (41), former mayor of Akitakata City, gained prominence in the Tokyo gubernatorial election held on July 7. It was election planner Shinnosuke Fujikawa (71) who helped Ishimaru achieve 1.62 million votes, far exceeding the expected 500,000. Fujikawa joined Ishimaru’s campaign team as a volunteer.

Since becoming a parliamentary secretary at age 23, Fujikawa has been involved in 144 elections, losing only 12 times. He is renowned in Nagata-cho as the “Muneo Suzuki of the East and Shinnosuke Fujikawa of the West,” a distinguished secretary. Now working as an election planner, he is known as the “God of Elections” or “Election Master.” We asked this renowned expert how to approach the next election, with excitement still high from Ishimaru’s impressive performance.

 

Evaluating “Hardline Measures”

First, I asked about Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (66), who is struggling with low approval ratings.

“In terms of achievements, Prime Minister Kishida has accomplished quite a lot. Although there are many loopholes and the substance is debatable, he managed to pass the Political Funds Control Law amendment during the recent ordinary Diet session. Throughout a series of political reforms, he has consistently taken the lead, including attending the Political Ethics Review Committee himself. He has actively engaged in negotiations with Komeito and the Japan Innovation Party while compiling political reform proposals. A major accomplishment is the significant increase in defense budget. He aims to double it to 2% of GDP by fiscal year 2027 and has shown direction toward acquiring the capability to attack enemy bases to prevent missile launches in other countries’ territories. This is something previous cabinets could not achieve, and it has earned him trust from conservative factions. Moreover, he has even mentioned restarting nuclear power plants, which the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry had been reluctant to do, facing minimal public backlash. The Nikkei Stock Average has also surpassed 40,000, reaching record highs.”

What surprised Fujikawa most about the Kishida administration was the way it turned the issue of faction-related slush funds into a catalyst for faction dissolution. The LDP has repeatedly declared its intention to resolve faction-related problems, such as the 1988 Recruit scandal, by dissolving factions. However, these declarations often amounted to nothing more than superficial changes. Fujikawa believed that this would be the case again this time.

“Prime Minister Kishida is known for his mild-mannered personality. It was hard to believe that he would actually do something like this, but he managed to dissolve the factions. He started by dissolving his own faction, the Koike-kai, and except for the Aso faction, all other factions within the LDP were disbanded. From the perspective of someone in the political world, it was shocking that such a thing could happen. It was an extraordinary decision and display of execution. While factions remain as policy groups for policy development, Kishida successfully separated the power over ‘money and personnel’ that factions previously controlled. The largest faction, the Abe faction, has split and lost its influence, making personnel decisions easier.”

Prime Minister Kishida expressed his determination for reelection, stating, “My energy is fully replenished, and I want to continue demonstrating my motivation and drive.” Despite low approval ratings, his tenure has surpassed 1,000 days, making it one of the longest post-war administrations, ranking in the top eight.

“The fact that the Abe and Suga administrations, which were known for their strong-handed approaches, managed to hold power for ten years has also been a tailwind. The Abe administration created the Cabinet Personnel Bureau and took control of bureaucratic appointments. By using top-down methods to suppress or reassign personnel who did not align with their agenda, the term ‘flashy bureaucrats’ emerged. Naturally, bureaucrats in Kasumigaseki were not pleased. Now, the Cabinet Personnel Bureau has been reclaimed, and the Prime Minister’s Office no longer interferes with appointments made by ministries. Although the government is often said to be ‘at the mercy of the Ministry of Finance,’ there has been no rebellion from Kasumigaseki against the Kishida administration. Contrary to public opinion and media reports, Kasumigaseki seems to be content with the continuation of the Kishida administration. That’s why the administration remains stable, albeit at a low level.”

Suga’s remarks were seen as the starting gun for the movement to remove Kishida. With the Kishida administration struggling with low approval ratings, many believe that Kishida’s chances of reelection in the LDP presidential election in September are slim. Fujikawa mentioned a former chief cabinet secretary with a background from the Ministry of Finance as a potential successor for the party leadership.

“Prime Minister Kishida dined with Vice President Taro Aso (83) for two consecutive weeks in June, but it is reported that full reconciliation has not been achieved. If Suga and other anti-mainstream factions unite, they could win. The key issue now is who will lead the charge. However, the next general election is unlikely to result in the LDP securing an outright majority on its own, and a loss seems inevitable. The focus is on selecting a figurehead to minimize that loss.

Former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba (67), who enjoys high public support, is likely to be a leading candidate. However, there are many opposing members of parliament, including Aso. Various names are being mentioned, but many potential candidates cannot even gather the 20 endorsements required to run. Even if they do, gaining the support of parliamentarians to secure victory is challenging. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato (68), with his background from the Ministry of Finance, is a strong figurehead for the opposition. Although his public recognition is low, as demonstrated by Shinji Ishimaru’s performance in the Tokyo gubernatorial election, low recognition doesn’t necessarily determine election outcomes.”

Fujikawa points out that Kato’s strength lies in his “personality.” While many lawmakers change their behavior based on the position of the other party or yell over trivial matters, Kato is well-regarded by other office staff as “friendly, a good person, and kind to everyone.”

“A leader who is more of a coordinator rather than a strong leader is now the right fit. The issue is whether, even if we manage to avoid a major defeat in the elections, the LDP and Komeito can maintain a single majority. If not, we will need to collaborate with other parties. Besides Komeito, we might need to seek cooperation from the Japan Innovation Party or the Democratic Party for the People to keep the Diet functioning. In that sense, a coordinator is preferable to someone with a strong will.”

In his days as a secretary, Fujikawa worked alongside Ichiro Ozawa (82) and faced off against the LDP. Currently, the LDP, with a total of 370 members in both houses of the Diet, is described as “It’s a rabble. Lawmakers who were once supposed to be lords of their own domains have now been reduced to obsessing over securing party endorsements,” lamenting Fujikawa.

“The fact that Ishimaru gained attention in the Tokyo gubernatorial election is related to the situation within the LDP. While Prime Minister Kishida and other executives say they ‘listen to the voices of the people,’ they are not being supported because they are not actually doing it. Even amid the slush fund issues, the younger members remained silent. If the candidates in the party leadership election rely on old-fashioned factions, the declaration of faction dissolution will be seen as merely symbolic. Although there has been a long accumulation of experience in governing, if the party shows a tendency to jump on the winning bandwagon, the LDP’s lifespan won’t be long.”

Finally, Fujikawa murmured, “The harsh scrutiny from the public towards the LDP is yet to come.” What will the analysis of the election god reveal?