The Reactionary Bubble is Coming! Selected 40 “Go To” stocks that are attracting a lot of attention right now

The number of new coronary infections in Tokyo has been dropping sharply, with the number of new infections per day falling below 50 every day. At the inaugural press conference on October 5, Minister Tetsuo Saito of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), which has jurisdiction over the campaign, said, “GoTo Travel is essential. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has also expressed his desire to resume GoTo. Mr. Kenichi Hirano, president of K-Asset, Inc.

“The Nikkei Stock Average and other indexes have been in a correction phase recently, but the global money glut has not changed, so money will continue to flow into the stock market. The Nikkei Stock Average is expected to rise again toward the end of the year, reaching around 32,000 yen. Under such circumstances, there is one industry that has yet to see its stock price rise. These include travel, tourism, airlines, and food and beverage industries, which were hit hard by the Covid-19 disaster. When economic activity picks up again, such as with the resumption of the GoTo campaign, we can expect a rapid recovery in the performance of these companies and a large increase in their stock prices.

Let’s take a look at some of the “GoTo stocks” that are attracting attention right now, starting with the “travel” and “airline” sectors, which will directly benefit if GoTo’s core business, “GoTo Travel,” starts moving again. Mr. Masanori Konuma, Representative of Kizuna Asset Management, explains.

“The stock price of ANA Holdings, a major airline, is almost certain to rise. It has the largest domestic passenger market share in Japan, but the return on its stock price has been smaller than that of Japan Airlines. The current share price is in the 2,600 yen range (as of October 25), but it was 3,600 to 3,800 yen before the Covid-19 disaster. There is a high probability that the stock will return to around that level.

Similarly, the benefits of the railroad and transportation industries are immeasurable. Mr. Hirano speaks.

Mr. Hirano said, “Railroad companies will be the first to be affected by the recovery of human flow, and JR companies in particular will all see a rapid recovery in their performance. East Japan Railway Company, the largest and most representative of these companies, is a stock that can easily become popular on the stock market, so we have high expectations for it.

In the last GoTo Travel, reservations were concentrated in some luxury inns. However, it is highly likely that countermeasures will be taken next time. Mr. Yasuaki Fujine, a securities analyst and representative of TIW, said.

“In the last GoTo Travel event, luxury hotels and inns were popular, but the economic impact on business hotels was not so great. Based on this experience, we are considering lowering the maximum discount amount from 20,000 yen per person per night to 5,000 to 10,000 yen per person per night for the next GoTo. We can expect this to have a ripple effect on small and medium-sized hotels and inns, and I think Kyoritsu Maintenance, which operates the Dormy Inn business hotel, will be paying attention.

In the next GoTo, a system to promote weekday use is being considered in order to avoid concentrated use on weekends. Many things have been improved since the last GoTo, and there is a possibility that the benefits will be spread to more areas.

The previous GoTo was implemented for about five years from July to December last year, and is estimated to have brought about an economic effect of about 1 trillion yen, mainly in the travel and tourism industry. If the program is reopened, the benefits are expected to spread to airlines and transportation-related companies. Ms. Kyoko Amamiya, an economic journalist and the president of Amamiya Research Institute, said.

“Airtori, which operates the airline ticket booking website Airtori, is a hot topic. The price has already started to rise around the time of the LDP presidential election, but I think there is still room for it to go up because domestic and international travel to distant places using airplanes is yet to take off.

Mr. Tsuyoshi Nishimura, a securities analyst and representative of Fairtrade, said.

“I think Airport Landing Japan, the facility operator that manages and operates the domestic and international passenger terminal buildings at Haneda Airport, is a good choice. Although it is not a prominent company compared to airlines, it is the ‘landlord of the airport,’ so to speak, so the lower price is solid and earnings will return as the number of passengers using the airport recovers. With airlines attracting so much attention, I think the company can be expected to be a late entrant.

Don’t overlook Eat!

GoTo demand is expected to spread to many other fields. “Apparel is also a genre that should not be overlooked. Mr. Fujine, mentioned above, said.

“As people travel and go out more often, they have more opportunities to care about their appearance than when they were at home most of the time. United Arrows, a major select store, is a good place to start. I think more and more people will be looking to update their clothes before their first trip in a while. With more opportunities to go out, we can expect a recovery in store-based apparel.

Don’t overlook stocks that have other favorable factors in addition to the GoTo. Hideo Amano, a market advisor, said.

“Of course, it will benefit from the resumption of GoTo Travel, but the fact that it owns Hotel Keihan Universal Tower, the official hotel of Universal Studios Japan (USJ), is also important. If USJ goes public, the market will become more active and Keihan’s stock price is likely to rise as well.

As with the previous GoTo, there is a possibility that “GoTo Eat” will be reopened, and the tailwind is blowing in the food and beverage industry as the requirement for shorter hours at restaurants in Tokyo was lifted on October 25. Mr. Hirano, who was interviewed earlier in the day, said, “The most affected restaurants are the ones with the shortest hours.

“The most affected restaurants are izakaya, which have been restricted from serving alcohol. The most promising company in this field is Toribiki Holdings. It is very well known and has many fans. Stores that were closed have been reopening since October 1, starting with those that are ready. The restrictions on serving alcoholic beverages have been lifted, and the company’s performance is expected to recover significantly. I think there is a possibility that the stock price will double in value.

Of course, not all restaurants have smooth sailing. The cooperation money given to restaurants that comply with the request for shorter hours has been a big help, especially to small restaurants, but it will disappear with the cancellation of the shorter hours. However, this trend is also giving rise to new issues to watch.

“I think that if the subsidy is removed, some restaurants will take the opportunity to close. On the other hand, more and more restaurants will take this as an opportunity to open new stores. For this reason, tempo innovation in the store subleasing business for restaurants is noteworthy. As the liquidity of stores increases, the company’s performance will grow in tandem with it.

“There is a market adage that says, “There is no selling in national policy. There is no way to miss this big wave.

From the November 12, 2021 issue of FRIDAY