The “X-Day” when Xi Jinping decides to advance will surely come: “China’s Invasion of Taiwan” Japan will be involved in this way

The sky over Taipei was covered in black smoke from the Chinese missile attack that began at dawn.

Precision-guided missiles destroyed the Presidential Office, the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of the Interior, and other government buildings and military facilities in Taipei and Taoyuan (Taoyuan) as well as critical infrastructure such as electricity, gas, and communications facilities.

Using reconnaissance satellites and drones, the attack pinpointed Taiwanese military units, ammunition depots, and fuel depots. Missiles were also launched at fixed radars, naval vessels docked at naval bases, and the army’s ground-based missile base.

A massive cyber attack was launched against the Taiwanese military’s communications organization, paralyzing all command and communications networks. Even telephones were out of service. Amidst the air raid alarms, a huge traffic jam was created by citizens’ cars trying to escape. The Presidential Office of Taiwan announced that it would relocate some government functions to Hualien City.

At the Indo-Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii, operational meetings were held daily.

There is no change to the order not to engage in direct combat with Chinese aircraft or naval vessels.”

The U.S. Navy is currently preparing to transport a Marine coastal regiment from Okinawa to Ishigaki Island. After transport, they will be stationed at the GSDF garrison. Additionally, the 1st and 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigades will be transported to Okinawa.”

Missiles and drones followed by Chinese Air Force bombers in the skies over Taipei. They bombed remaining fighter aircraft and military installations at bases and coastal areas. Following the completion of a series of pre-landing preparatory strikes, landing ships with approximately 160,000 personnel of the primary invasion force departed one after another from the Eastern War Zone, where the command center is located in Nanjing City.

China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that “the current turmoil in Taiwan is impossible for Taiwan to control by itself, and we will conduct the minimum necessary military operations to protect Taiwanese citizens. It continued.

The Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that “the current turmoil in Taiwan is an internal affair, and we firmly reject interference by other countries.

On Yonaguni Island, about 100 kilometers from the site of the fierce fighting, all residents had been evacuated. Only the Self-Defense Forces remained, but the Chinese electronic warfare attack cut off communications with the rest of the island, leaving them isolated. Deprived of the ability to counterattack by missile attacks, the SDF were surrounded by heavily armed Chinese naval land forces that had landed on the island. It took only a few hours to settle the matter.

On the Senkaku Islands, the Chinese flag was flown by the occupying forces.

X-Day” Approaching

This is a detailed simulation of “China’s invasion of Taiwan” by Hirotaka Yamashita, 66, former commissioner of the Central Area of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.

Yamashita, an elite officer who retired as a general in 2003, is well versed in the Ground Self-Defense Force and its operations. He is in charge of planning and leading war games for government officials, and on April 17 published a book titled “Complete Simulation of Taiwan Invasion War” (Kodansha Ltd.).

Last December, the Kishida administration decided on the three security documents (National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Force Development Plan), which suddenly heightened the sense of caution about a Taiwan contingency, but Yamashita asserts, “There will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

The question is when. The most likely time is in 2015. It is a turning point for President Xi Jinping (69), who is looking at his fourth term after his third term, and it is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. The fact that the People’s Liberation Army will surpass the strength of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in 25 years will also encourage the invasion. The Taiwan Strait is subject to many typhoons passing through in the summer and strong winds and thick fog in the winter.’ I see early spring or early fall of ’27 as the X-Day.”

In his book, Yamashita lists five situations that could trigger an invasion, including “Taiwan’s declaration of independence,” “Taiwan’s application for UN membership,” and “nuclear arms,” but he says that “in reality, it is Xi Jinping’s decision.

For example, just because Taiwan’s president visited New York and met with the U.S. president, it could be judged as a ‘move toward independence,'” he said. It is up to Xi Jinping to decide what the trigger is.

The key to this simulation is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Because it was full of lessons learned, such as the failure of every cyber attack prior to the invasion and the inability to locate radar and surface-to-air missiles to secure air superiority. They will focus on logistics (supply and transportation) to the maximum extent possible, which was their biggest failure.

If war broke out between China and Taiwan, Japan would be involved, whether it wanted to be or not.

Yamashita cited three possible scenarios.

When tensions rise, the U.S. fleet, including the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, will deploy to the waters surrounding Taiwan. If a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft is accidentally downed and a request for search and rescue is received, it would become a “critical influence situation” under the Security Treaty Law. The Self-Defense Forces will support logistical activities such as search and refueling. If a U.S. ship is directly attacked, the situation will be recognized as an “existential crisis situation” and the right of collective self-defense will be exercised. The SDF’s Aegis and other vessels will protect U.S. vessels.

The third is an “armed attack situation.

The third is an “armed attack situation.” “In addition to directly engaging in warfare, for example, simply protecting Taiwanese aircraft, ships, or soldiers who have evacuated to Japan after engaging Chinese forces increases the risk of an armed attack,” he said. The Chinese demand that we hand them over because it is an internal matter, but from a humanitarian standpoint, we cannot comply. From China’s point of view, the evacuated personnel and equipment are a force of war, so there is a risk that they could be attacked by missiles or other means.”

The invasion of Taiwan was a fully-fledged invasion. What will be the consequences for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Self-Defense Forces involved in the invasion? What is worrisome is whether the SDF will be able to fight in the first place and whether the Security Treaty Law will function.

The field is always on the move, and instantaneous judgment is required. When a U.S. ship is attacked while refueling and the MSDF is called in to protect it, the government is not going to say, ‘Wait a minute, please, we are still in a critical incident. It is still a situation of critical impact, so we have to get the government to certify it as an existential crisis situation. ……” If we said things like that, we would be sunk.

Is the SDF an army? Yamashita responded, “Self-defense forces are an army.

The “defense-in-depth” sounds good, but it means waging war on our own land. Even if the residents could evacuate, they would lose their buildings, land, and all other property. The government must explain these negative consequences. Under the current Security Law, many Self-Defense Force officers will lose their lives. There are many other problems as well, such as personnel shortages, a mixture of old and new equipment, and an overwhelming shortage of weapons. Politicians need to keep their eyes firmly focused on reality.”

X-Day is never far away.

How will Japan get involved in China’s invasion of Taiwan?　What fate awaits the Self-Defense Forces?　How will the U.S. military react?　What about Russia’s checks and balances?
For those who want to know the results of the elaborate simulation by Mr. Yamashita, who planned and instructed war games (graphical exercises) for key government officials, click here↓.

From the June 16-23, 2023 issue of FRIDAY