China’s “Ambition Fulfillment” Begins in Japan in the Event of a Taiwan Conflict

Xi Jinping (69) is finally moving toward the “realization of his ambition. The ambition is to reunify Taiwan and become the “emperor for life” of China.

In principle, the term of office for the General Secretary of the Communist Party is two terms of ten years, but Xi is about to exceed this limit and serve a third term. In order to break with precedent and achieve this, he will need a track record of convincing the people. There is now a possibility that he will publicly declare his intention to unify Taiwan at the Chinese Communist Party congress this fall,” said Kaori Fukushima, a journalist familiar with the situation in China.

On August 2, U.S. Speaker of the House Pelosi, the second in the presidential line of succession, visited Taiwan. Taking this opportunity, China began military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Tensions have risen dramatically, with missiles landing in Japan’s EEZ. If China were to take Taiwan, there is no doubt that a major crisis would arise in the security of East Asia. The U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet deployed in the Pacific is also on heightened alert.

What would China do in the event of a “Taiwan contingency”? And what kind of threat will Japan face?

It is said that Russia suffered greatly in the war in Ukraine because it took time to gain control of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, giving the Western powers time to prepare their support. Xi Jinping will not make the same mistake as Putin. He intends to take control of Taipei, Taiwan’s central city, by blitzkrieg. Military journalist Buntaro Kuroi said.

Operation Zanshu,” in which the main part of Taipei would be overrun in one fell swoop, would be the most realistic strategy for China with the highest probability of success. First, deploy submarines in the wide waters surrounding Taiwan to check U.S. forces, and then use fighter jets, naval vessels, and missiles to create a diversionary tactic against the Taiwanese forces. At the same time, they would surprise Taipei with helicopters and transport planes, paratroopers, etc. At once, they attack the presidential office, military headquarters, and television stations, taking the president and senior government and military officials hostage and controlling a certain area. This is the “beheading operation.

The mission to raid Taipei is believed to be carried out by the “Thunder God,” a special unit of the Chinese Air Force. They are an elite unit trained to descend from a height of 5,500 meters and to descend at an extremely low altitude from 260 meters. The U.S., on the back foot, will strike in a hurry to retake Taipei. The U.S. forces at Kadena Air Base and Futenma Air Base in Okinawa will be dispatched. If this were to happen, Japan would inevitably be involved in the fighting. Mr. Kuroi continues.

There is no way that the Chinese military would not attack bases in Okinawa with missiles. U.S. bases in western Japan, such as the Sasebo base in Nagasaki Prefecture and the Iwakuni base in Yamaguchi Prefecture, could also be targets of attack. In this case, Japan’s territory would be attacked, and the Self-Defense Forces would respond by “mobilizing for defense. In this case, the Self-Defense Forces would respond by “mobilizing defense.” Since the bases of the Self-Defense Forces would also be targets, not only Naha Airport, but also Chikushiro Air Base in Fukuoka Prefecture and Nittahara Air Base in Miyazaki Prefecture could be attacked by missiles. It is quite possible that missiles aimed at those bases could land in residential areas.
China has already deployed more than 2,000 such missiles to attack Japan. As soon as the U.S. military fires even one shot at Chinese troops, they will rain down a large number of missiles on U.S. bases on the mainland Okinawa. A response is urgently needed.

In the event of a “Taiwan contingency,” there is a possibility that Japanese civilians and urban areas could be affected. Japan is equipped with an interceptor system using PAC-3s and Aegis vessels against a Chinese missile attack, but it remains to be seen to what extent the SDF, which has little actual combat experience, will be able to respond. To begin with, the SDF has major concerns in terms of equipment. It has purchased expensive, high-spec weapons from the U.S., but it is difficult to say that it has mastered their use. Meanwhile, the mainstay of the SDF’s fighter jets are still the F-15s from the 1970s. The U.S. could face China’s latest weaponry with “outdated” equipment.

In addition, we need to be wary of cyber-attacks, which were so powerful during the war in Ukraine. International journalist Toshihiro Yamada says, “When war breaks out, cyber-attacks are the most likely scenario.

When war breaks out, cyber attacks target communications, electricity, railroads, media, and other infrastructure. By destroying these, they disrupt the military chain of command and cripple society.’ As evidenced by the massive power outage across Hokkaido in 2006, Japan is extremely vulnerable if its infrastructure is stopped. It is hard to imagine what kind of chaos a cyber attack could cause in society. Under such circumstances, it would be extremely difficult to provide logistical support for a battle, much less to return fire.

It is not a pipe dream that Japanese territory will become a combat zone.

From the September 2, 2022 issue of FRIDAY