The Dismantling of Russia into Five Parts After Ukraine Invasion | FRIDAY DIGITAL

The Dismantling of Russia into Five Parts After Ukraine Invasion

President Putin resigns by summer, a Chinese-dominated "Far Eastern Republic" emerges, nomads gain independence in the Arctic Circle, and Islamic forces rise

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His physical condition is believed to be serious because the TV special “National Dialogue”, which was held annually every June, was postponed this year.

Prof. Itsuro Nakamura of Tsukuba Gakuin University and journalist Kosuke Tsuneoka reveal

It has been about four months since the invasion on February 24. The Russian military offensive is intensifying toward complete control of Luhansk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.

On June 15, the British Ministry of Defence released an analysis that Russian forces have taken control of most of Severodonetsk, a key city in the province. Although there are growing indications that it is only a matter of time before the Russians gain control of the eastern front, journalist Kosuke Tsuneoka asserts that “Russia will never win.”


“Russia is indeed reeling on the eastern front, but this is largely due to the fact that arms aid and other assistance to Ukraine by Western countries has been stalled. On the other hand, Russia has also been badly damaged, losing a third of its troops, according to the British Defence Ministry. More serious is the economic damage.” Hermán Gref, the chief executive officer of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, said on June 17, “It will take 10 years for the economy to return to pre-sanctions levels. That’s how serious the economic situation in Russia has become.”

“The United States and NATO countries are already moving toward an end to the war, but the situation is the same in Russia. Putin is preparing to resign the presidency and change the government in preparation for the gubernatorial elections to be held in September in various regions of Russia,” says Itsuro Nakamura, professor emeritus at Tsukuba University and an expert on Russian politics.

“The economy is on the verge of collapse due to massive war expenditures and severe economic sanctions, and dissatisfaction with the regime is at an all-time high. Since Putin has no choice but to resign as president, he intends to maintain only his influence in the House of Representatives from now on. He will therefore resign by early August at the latest, before the gubernatorial elections. He has nominated Dmitry Kovalev, the young 36-year-old head of the presidential bureau, as his successor. But there are many who would like to take Putin’s place. If the transfer of power fails, a completely different scenario awaits. That is the dismantling of Russia into five parts.”


According to Nakamura, the five regions would be as follows The “Russian Orthodox Bloc,” consisting of the current Russian power centred on Moscow. The “Muslim sphere” adjacent to Central Asia. The “Buddhist sphere” adjacent to Mongolia. A “nomadic nation” located in the Far North region, where a large number of nomads live. A “Far Eastern Republic” in the Far East region, including the Northern Territories.

Could such a thing really happen? Our interviews revealed the shape of the new world after the end of the war.


Conflict Still Continues in the Muslim World

The Republic of Tatarstan is home to the majority of Russia’s Muslim population. There is a possibility that an Islamist bloc may be formed based in Tatarstan. Islamist forces have been engaged in warfare against Russia since the 12th and 13th centuries. Fresh in the memory is the conflict between the Chechen Republic’s Muslim separatist militants and the Russian army. The Chechen conflict, which has been washed in blood, has continued intermittently from the 18th and 19th centuries to the present day. That is why Nakamura said, “The patriotism advocated by Putin is completely unacceptable to the Muslims. Depending on Russia’s moves, the secession of Muslim-majority regions will become a reality,”


Buddhist Bloc to Establish “Pan-Mongolian” State

The Tuva Republic came under the rule of Imperial Russia after the Xinhai Revolution of 1911, and in the early 20th century there was a movement to establish a “Pan-Mongolian” Buddhist state, but during the Soviet era, Buddhist temples were closed and destroyed, and almost all of the monks were exiled or shot.

Nakamura says, “The people here don’t understand Russian in the first place. Because it is a land of strict Buddhists, there is no patriotism toward Russia, which has thoroughly suppressed Buddhism. There is a good chance that the independence movement will take off again as soon as Russia weakens.”

Independence of Nomads for Resources

There is a strong possibility that nomads, especially the Nenets, will leave Russia’s Arctic region. One of the reasons they are still under Russian control is the huge amount of compensation for the development of natural resources. According to data from the State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the average monthly income for Russia as a whole in 2007 was $733 (approximately ¥100,000), while the average monthly income in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug was $1,551 (approximately ¥210,000). The gap between the two is more than double.

The nomads also realize the value of their natural resources. If Russia is dismantled, they will seek greater profits, claim land ownership and mining rights, and leave Russia for deals with other countries.


China’s domination of the Far Eastern Republic

The situation in the Far East will have the greatest impact on Japan. If Russia were to break up, China would certainly reach out to the vast Far East region, including the Northern Territories. It is estimated that approximately 20% of the population of Far Eastern Russia is of Chinese descent, and Chinese companies are already making significant inroads into the region. Huawei is participating in the laying of undersea communication cables in the Northern Territories, and there are countless other examples. That is why Mr. Nakamura says,

If one location leaves Russia, an avalanche of companies will leave Russia. In the end, Russia will become a country like the old Grand Duchy of Moscow on the west side of the Urals, with the Russian Orthodox Church as its axis of faith.”

This is the full extent of the five-part dismemberment of Russia. Japan is no stranger to this. Now that countries are moving toward the end of the war, the issue of resolving the Northern Territories and other diplomatic problems must be faced.

Mr. Tsuneoka says, “The biggest gainer from the war was China. Trade with Russia is booming, and natural resources are being imported cheaply.”
Kazan, the capital of the Republic of Tatarstan. The Muslim population is on the rise, and has grown to just under 20% of Russia’s total population.
Only 0.6% of the population of about 140 million are Buddhists. Although small in number, many ethnic groups have strong ties to neighboring nations.
The Nenets have been hunting in the Arctic region for more than 1,000 years. Rapid modernization is underway, including the spread of electronic devices.

From the July 8, 2022 issue of FRIDAY

  • PHOTO (Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Nikolayevich) Kyodo (Putin, Nenets) Afro (Xi Jinping, mosque) alamy (Buddhist temple)

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