Putin’s “concrete scenario” of losing office, with allegations of deteriorating health. | FRIDAY DIGITAL

Putin’s “concrete scenario” of losing office, with allegations of deteriorating health.

Civilian bodies litter the outskirts of the capital city of Kieu, where Russian troops have left, and there are signs of torture and executions. The domestic economy has been devastated by sanctions imposed by Western countries.

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The “Naked King,” clinging to a phantom approval rating, is in deteriorating health.

President Vladimir Putin attends a concert commemorating the annexation of Crimea on March 18, attended by more than 95,000 people.

On April 2, Russian troops withdrew from the city of Bucha near the capital of Khiu. The mayor of Bucha, Fedoryuk, said he fell to his knees when he saw his hometown in ruins. Numerous bodies were lying in the yards and alleys of private homes. There were also signs of torture, including a corpse tied behind his back with a rope and a man who had died with a cloth over his head.

The massacre of civilians was aimed at two things. One is to make an example of them. They target civilians to discourage resistance through fear. The second is ‘booby trapping. They plant landmines on the bodies and use the people who come to collect them as collateral damage.

On April 3, Ukrainian prosecutors announced that 410 civilians had been massacred in towns around Khiu from which Russian troops had withdrawn. President Zelensky (44), who inspected the area, decried it as “genocide,” and US President Biden (79) denounced Putin as a war criminal. Nevertheless, the Russian military offensive continues with even greater vigor.

A Defense Ministry official continues.

A Defense Ministry official continued, “The Russians are going to do everything they can to take the southern part of the country. If Odesa falls in the south, a corridor will connect along the coastline to the pro-Russian-controlled Donbass region in the east. They will probably use that as a drop-off point for ceasefire negotiations and declare victory on May 9, the anniversary of World War II’s victory over Germany.

On the other hand, “President Putin, 69, is incapable of making such a realistic decision,” believes international relations analyst Yoshinori Kitano.

It is highly likely that Putin has not been told by the military or intelligence services that he is in a difficult situation. Even his closest aides are too afraid of Putin to talk about the fact that he is struggling. Putin is like, ‘Supply in Belarus and drop Kieu!’ And I may order it again.”

Although President Putin continues to run amok like this, economic sanctions by Western countries and isolation from the international community have wreaked havoc in Russia. Some observers believe that his ouster is gradually approaching. Itsuro Nakamura, a professor at Tsukuba Gakuin University and an expert on Russian politics, explains.

The Russian government has announced that the approval rating for Putin’s administration is about 80%, but an anonymous Internet poll put the approval rating at 26%. Some of the survey results actually show that only 9% support the government. The fact that Putin is reported to be suffering from thyroid cancer is also evidence of a looming crisis. Normally, such top-secret information would not be reported in such detail. Someone in his inner circle is working in the dark to unseat Putin. Health problems are easy to use as a reason for regime change.”

Oligarchs, an upstart conglomerate with a strong political voice that has supported President Putin since his inauguration, have also expressed opposition to the war.

Oligarchs are reducing their assets due to economic sanctions. Putin’s presence is nothing but a negative.

People from the military, police, FSB (Russian Federal Security Service), and other intelligence organizations – “siloviki” – are also said to be moving toward a coup d’etat. The aforementioned Nakamura said, “The “Siloviki” are also beginning to move toward a coup d’etat.

The two closest aides who have been mentioned as potential successors are Aleksandr Bortnikov, 70, head of the Federal Security Service, and Nikolai Patrushev, 70, secretary of the Security Council, both former colleagues from the KGB, the former Soviet Union’s secret police. They could take real power under the guise of giving Putin, whose health has deteriorated, a break. Or they could use a civil uprising to stage a coup d’etat by their close associates. In that case, Bortnikov would lead the charge.

If Bortnikov gets Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (66), Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (56), and others on his side, and the intelligence services and military betray him, the Putin regime is finished. This is the same approach as the coup d’état that was launched in ’91 during the Soviet era to unseat Gorbachev (91), but it failed because the citizens did not side with him at the time. This time, the people will rise up en masse in response to the coup.”

If Putin is ousted, how will the “cleanup” be carried out?

How will the “cleanup” of the war be handled if Putin is ousted? It is highly likely that Putin’s betraying aides will blame him for the war, saying, ‘This war was Putin’s arbitrary decision, and he was threatened and had no choice but to follow through. It may be hard to imagine when looking at the overwhelming power of the current situation, but that is what happens when a dictatorship comes to an end.

The oligarchs will be on the side of the new regime. The oligarchs include the “new oligarchs” who are loyal to President Putin and the “new oligarchs” who opposed the invasion and fled the country. The latter will be recalled, and the assets of the former will be confiscated and expelled. The funds will be used to rebuild the battered economy. This is a plan that will attract support for the new administration,” said a desk clerk at a national newspaper’s international department.

Will the dictatorship really collapse? At any rate, we can only hope for a cease-fire as soon as possible.

The airport in Khostumeri, near Kieu. The world’s largest aircraft, “Muriya,” was destroyed by the Russian military. The plane was the only one of its kind in the world, and its name means “dream” in Ukrainian.
Demonstrations against the invasion have been held around the world. Many people have prominently compared President Putin’s outburst to Hitler.
President Zelensky visited Bucha, where a massacre of civilians occurred on April 4. He is inspiring civilians to continue resisting.
A fuel depot was destroyed in the southern city of Odesa as air strikes intensified. Russian forces aim to overrun the entire southern region.

From the April 22, 2022 issue of FRIDAY

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