Effectively Ousted! Junichi Ishii, Former “Godfather of the Upper House”: “Rally? The Scene of the Roppongi Meeting”—A Heavyweight Lawmaker Whose Name Is Being Mentioned as a Rival to Takaichi

On the evening of October 13, with a pleasant autumn breeze in the air, a man with a piercing gaze was walking through Roppongi Hills. It was Junichi Ishii (68), former Secretary-General of the House of Councillors and once known as the “Godfather of the House of Councillors.”Carrying a paper bag containing a bottle of “Opus One,” a premium California red wine, in his left hand, he headed to an upscale Italian restaurant offering a view of the Tokyo Tower at night. There, he was joined by two other men, and they held a meeting that lasted about three hours.

Afterward, when I approached Mr. Ishii, he seemed puzzled, asking, “How did you know I was here?” but then went on to say:

“If I (as former Secretary-General of the House of Councillors) can do it, anyone can. Anyone can run the Diet. It’s just a matter of how you run it.”

What does this mean? The LDP is a minority ruling party in the House of Councillors, and the deliberation of bills is constantly unstable. However, in this fall’s personnel reshuffle, Mr. Ishii—who had long been in charge of the LDP’s House of Councillors caucus—was effectively dismissed. Voices of concern are rising within the party, asking , “Will the Diet still function?”

“In the general election this past February, the LDP won 316 seats. In the House of Representatives, it secured more than two-thirds of the seats on its own. However, in the House of Councillors, even when the ruling LDP and The Japan Innovation Party are combined, they fall four seats short of a majority (124). On the other hand, the combined total of lawmakers from all opposition factions is 120, which also falls short of a majority, so the outcome hinges on which side the six independent lawmakers will side with,” said a political reporter for a national newspaper.

“Parliamentary Operations That Have Experts in Awe”

Mr. Ishii served under the late Koichi Hamada, known by the nickname “Hamako,” and was mentored by the late Mikio Aoki, who was recognized as a powerhouse in the House of Councillors. He also has many acquaintances among the opposition. Kei Endo (58), an advisor to the Prime Minister who has long served as chair of the Japan Innovation Party’s Diet Strategy Committee, explains:

“The key to parliamentary strategy isn’t to refute your opponent, but rather to build a foundation of ‘mutual assistance’—letting them save face while getting them to accept our terms.”

Mr. Ishii’s strength lay in his strong connections with former Democratic Party of Japan lawmakers; he possessed the skill to save face for the opposition while steering the Diet in the manner desired by the sitting prime minister. Mr. Endo continues:

“Rather than having the LDP take the chairmanship of committees where disputes were likely to arise, he would cede those positions to the opposition. While ceding the posts, he would ensure that opposition lawmakers who were willing to engage with him were appointed to those committees. He managed the Diet in a way that even seasoned parliamentary strategists would applaud.”

It is said that Mr. Ishii played a key role in securing the votes of independent lawmakers during the previous extraordinary session of the Diet, leading to the passage of the amendment to the Imperial House Law and the bills related to the secondary capital.

However, as mentioned earlier, Mr. Ishii was effectively removed from his position as Secretary-General of the House of Councillors. The catalyst for this was the formation of a new group in April of this year. Mr. Ishii launched the “LDP House of Councillors Club,” which was joined by over 40 lawmakers from the former Motegi faction, the former Abe faction, and the Aso faction.Since some members still align with their former factions, the 40 members do not necessarily act in complete unity. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (65) viewed Mr. Ishii’s formation of the group with caution.

“During the recent extraordinary session of the Diet, the passage of the budget was delayed until early April for the first time in 11 years. Although this was due to the sudden dissolution of the House of Representatives in January, Prime Minister Takaichi viewed it as Mr. Ishii’s responsibility—since he prioritized thorough deliberations with the opposition in the House of Councillors—that she was forced to deliberate on a provisional budget and had no choice but to extend the session.Furious that she had been promised a committee meeting attended by the Prime Minister merely to save face for the opposition, she vented her anger to those around her, declaring, ‘We don’t need the Parliamentary Affairs Committee at all,’” said a mid-level lawmaker from the former Abe faction.

The names of former Prime Minister Ishiba and Yuko Obuchi were also mentioned

Personnel appointments within the LDP’s House of Councillors are considered “off-limits,” and members of the House of Representatives have no say in them.

It has long been customary for the President of the House of Councillors—elected by party-affiliated members of the House of Councillors—to appoint senior leadership positions; even during the long-running Koizumi administration and the second Abe administration, members of the House of Representatives were unable to directly influence these appointments.This time, it is officially stated that House of Councillors President Seiji Matsuyama (67) formally pressured Mr. Ishii to step down. However, those close to the situation view Ms. Takaichi’s intention as having been to “exclude Mr. Ishii,” and tensions continue between the LDP’s House of Councillors faction and the Prime Minister’s Office.

Furthermore, in opposition to the Takaichi administration, there is talk of forming an alliance with a new heavyweight lawmaker.

“It is widely rumored that former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Yoshimasa Hayashi (65), who was removed from the cabinet in this fall’s reshuffle, will join forces with Mr. Ishii. Mr. Hayashi is a former member of the House of Councillors and is close to Mr. Ishii.“It is highly likely that Mr. Hayashi will run in the LDP presidential election next fall. If former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yuko Obuchi (52), who opposed the consumption tax cut, along with former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (69) and former Secretary-General Yutaka Moriyama (81), were to join him, they would form a major political force,” said the same source.

How will Mr. Ishii, who has long been in charge of the LDP in the House of Councillors, respond? Was the gathering mentioned at the beginning a rally?—Shōji Nishida (68), a member of the House of Councillors who attended the dinner, explains.

“The three of us who attended the dinner were Kenichiro Saito (45), a member of the House of Councillors who formerly belonged to the NHK Party and is now an independent, Mr. Ishii, and myself. Mr. Ishii and I have been asking independent lawmakers for their cooperation in votes to help us navigate difficult situations in the Diet.We asked Mr. Saito, ‘Although we have been relieved of our official positions and are now just rank-and-file members, please continue to cooperate with the LDP.’”

The Takashi administration is about to enter a new phase.