The Myth of “AI-Driven Unemployment”… “Nostalgic Jobs” Offer Hope for Experienced Middle-Aged and Older Workers to Compete with Younger Workers

The True Nature of Jobs That AI Can’t Take Away

Amid ongoing discussions about “AI unemployment”—the loss of jobs to AI—a new buzzword is gaining attention: “nostalgic jobs.”

A “nostalgic job” refers to a job or role that people want to be performed by humans—or believe should be performed by humans—and that is deliberately preserved, even if AI is capable of replacing human labor.

Professor Hiroaki Miyamoto of the Institute of Economic Research at Hitotsubashi University discusses this concept—originally proposed by Professor Anton Korinec of the University of Virginia—in his book *The Great AI Divide: Cutting-Edge Research Reveals the Future of Work and Wages*(Nihon Hyoronsha), arguing that maintaining employment in the AI era requires society to identify the jobs that humans should perform and to protect and support them.

Professor Hiroaki Miyamoto explains “jobs that humans should perform” as follows:

“These are jobs where ethical standards, human judgment, and emotional sensitivity are valued—for example, lawyers and judges. While AI can analyze vast amounts of past court records to determine guilt or innocence and recommend appropriate penalties, it’s another matter entirely whether people would find such a verdict convincing. I believe these are tasks that should ultimately be performed by humans.”  

Even if AI can replace such tasks, we collectively refer to jobs that people feel ‘should be done by humans’ as ‘nostalgic jobs’” (Professor Hiroaki Miyamoto; same below).

The same applies to jobs in the fields of nursing care, childcare, education, and healthcare. In nursing care and healthcare settings, while AI can be used for monitoring and safety management to improve operational efficiency, it is difficult for it to fully replace the “warmth” and “compassion” that patients and residents seek in their daily lives. “Truly being there for people” is a role that should be left to humans.

If the priority is efficiency and cost reduction, AI is the obvious choice—but is that really enough?

The existence of “nostalgic jobs” seems to pose this very question to us.

“It is ‘humans’ who decide what is expected of other humans. It is crucial for humans to take the initiative in deciding what to entrust to AI and what to leave to humans. As a result, I believe that ‘areas and roles that only humans can perform’ tend to become nostalgic jobs—ones that are difficult for AI to replace.”

That said, Professor Miyamoto takes issue with the argument that “AI will take away human jobs.”

“From the perspective of the economy as a whole, I believe it is correct to view the advent of AI not as something that takes away human jobs, but as a force that promotes the reorganization and creation of jobs. While the number of jobs that will disappear due to AI and the number of tasks (duties and operations) that AI can replace will increase, at the same time, many new jobs will be created.”  

For example, the giant U.S. tech companies known as GAFA (Google, Amazon, Meta, and Apple), which are now used worldwide, have created new infrastructure—such as the internet, email, online shopping, and smartphones—as well as a vast number of jobs in just 30 years.”  

Furthermore, according to research by Professor David Autor, a leading labor economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), as of 2018, approximately 60 percent of U.S. workers were engaged in “new types of jobs” that had emerged since 1940.In other words, it can be said that technological innovations such as automation and IT over the past 80 years have consistently created new sources of employment.  

“While there are differences between generative AI and past IT technologies, just as with these past technological innovations, AI will likely create a vast number of new jobs and play a role in absorbing labor.”  

Why the “Middle-Aged and Older” Will Thrive in the AI Era  

Looking ahead, making a bold career shift toward the “nostalgic jobs” mentioned earlier is one option, but taking on a role with no prior experience is no easy feat. What does it take to survive in your current workplace or job, and how should you leverage your strengths as a person?

“To utilize generative AI effectively, you must provide appropriate instructions (prompts) and accurately evaluate the AI’s output. It is crucial to determine how to apply the processed information to your work, which requires the literacy to interpret and leverage AI—in other words, the ‘know-how to master AI.’”  

While the use of AI is a given, middle-aged and older workers with extensive practical experience have an advantage. Drawing on their years of experience, they can detect inconsistencies in AI outputs, make corrections, and make sound judgments. On the other hand, younger workers with less experience tend to take the outputs at face value.

In fact, it is said that middle-aged and older workers are more compatible with AI than younger workers, and data from a U.S. study suggests that it is entry-level jobs that are most likely to be replaced by AI. That is precisely why leveraging their experience to work effectively with AI is the surest path to survival for middle-aged and older workers.  

Furthermore, when a new project is launched, while AI can generate ideas, it cannot engage in network-based thinking or negotiation.  

“Networking and communication skills—such as knowing that ‘if it’s this task, asking Mr. X from that department will make things go smoothly’ or ‘connecting with this person at that company will lead to business opportunities’—are uniquely human. Building relationships and applying them to work is a human strength. I believe that, along with the ability to properly grasp the workflow of the entire organization, communication and networking skills will become even more in demand.”

Furthermore, the “reorganization and creation of work” being promoted by companies requires strong decision-making skills from managers.

“When reorganizing work, it’s crucial to allocate tasks—deciding what to entrust to AI and what to entrust to people—and this responsibility will likely fall to middle-aged and older managers. They must possess the decisive ability to make drastic decisions, such as decisively cutting out tasks by declaring, ‘This task is unnecessary.’”  

In my case as a university professor, even a single task like teaching a class involves various duties, such as creating slides, drafting exam questions, and grading papers. While AI can handle most of these tasks, there are some—such as drafting exam questions—that only I can do, and reorganizing these responsibilities is also part of my job.”  

If I were to delegate slide creation to AI, I would no longer need a research assistant, which would necessitate their dismissal. In Japan’s employment system, which “values people,” such decisions present a very high hurdle. That is precisely why I believe managers will increasingly be required to adopt a proactive stance and demonstrate bold decision-making.”  

The “Outdated Employment System” Eroding Japan

To overcome this greatest hurdle, large-scale labor market reform is also essential.

“In Japan, employment practices based on lifetime employment remain deeply entrenched, making the labor market rigid. As things stand, even if AI-driven technological innovation creates high-paying jobs, workers will be unable to change jobs or move seamlessly. When new jobs are created, the government must establish job-change support systems and enhance labor market flexibility to ensure workers can transition smoothly.”  

In economics, there is the concept that “employment is a derived demand of production.” This means that employment exists only because of production; it is a fundamental principle of economics that employment should change in response to changes in production.  

For example, when the economy slumps and production declines, employment adjusts accordingly—such as by reducing part-time positions. However, production is also significantly affected by changes in social structures and the environment, such as population decline, a low birthrate and aging population, and climate change. Yet Japan has been unable to adapt to these changes and continues to cling to its outdated employment system. The current reality in Japan is that workers are bearing the brunt of this failure.”

In recent years, jobs in the fields of nursing care, healthcare, and education have seen high turnover rates, and the fact that wages do not match the demanding nature of the work has become a major concern. Even if people find value in “nostalgic jobs”—those that should be performed by humans—and seek a career change, it amounts to nothing more than “exploitation of a sense of fulfillment” if they cannot make ends meet. It is simply inconceivable that employment will increase while wages remain low.

“The problem is that low-productivity companies are being protected and preserved in the market by national policies and vested interests. This hinders the overall economic metabolism and is one of the reasons average wages aren’t rising.”  

Even within regulated industries—such as those governed by law regarding nursing care reimbursement rates (official prices) and staffing levels—there are facilities that are actively introducing the latest technologies (such as AI-powered monitoring systems or the use of generative AI to draft care plans) to boost productivity and are passing the resulting profits on to employees in the form of higher wages.It is crucial to create a market where such companies can survive and compete; I believe that low-productivity companies that rely solely on government protection should be weeded out of the market.”  

The economy is like a living organism. It remains healthy precisely because its cells are constantly being replaced.Creating an environment where people, goods, and money flow smoothly is what drives significant growth in the economy as a whole. Preserving the old ways, as Japan has done, is like allowing bad cells to multiply—it’s only natural that the economy as a whole would grind to a halt. This is the state of Japan’s economy, often referred to as the “Lost 30 Years.” While there may be some temporary pain, the government should use the evolution of AI as an opportunity to implement drastic reforms.”

“One Essential Quality” in Which Humans Surpass AI

I’ve heard that in the near future, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—which possesses intellectual capabilities on par with humans—will emerge. It’s also said that beyond that, we’ll move closer to Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), which far surpasses human intelligence.While “AI run amok” and “malfunctions” are already being viewed as problems both domestically and internationally, it seems the day is drawing near when AI will spiral out of control—just like in a science fiction movie—and cause massive chaos worldwide.

“The greatest crisis is when AI begins to develop AI itself. While humans currently make the decisions regarding AI development, there is a very real danger that the pace of AI development will outstrip that of humans, turning it into a complete black box that humans can no longer control.”  

Furthermore, what I fear is that the international race for military applications—which has already begun in some quarters—will intensify. While many researchers have mentioned the need for regulation, urgent action is required.

It is humans who decide how to use AI. That is precisely why we, as humans, need to take our thinking one step further. Isn’t it important to create and use AI by considering what is in the best interest of humanity—from a broad perspective that encompasses not only national interests but also the interests of the entire planet and world peace?”

He also noted that “human maturity” will become increasingly necessary for this.

“AI is far more knowledgeable and can handle many languages. It probably has a sense of humor, never gets angry, and is patient. But I don’t think anyone would want to become an AI.People do not look up to AI. On the other hand, they do look up to other people. Some may even set a goal, thinking, ‘Someday I want to be like that.’ This is the ultimate difference between humans and AI. If we can inspire people’s admiration and become the kind of presence that makes them think, ‘I’m glad I met you,’ then we will never be replaced by AI.”  

The subtleties of emotion—such as compassion, empathy, trust, love, gratitude, and consideration—that AI cannot develop, along with our humanity, are the essence of what it means to be human, and they are values worth protecting. Isn’t it precisely in the age of AI that we need to thoroughly explore and elevate these ‘essential human values’ that AI cannot replicate?”

▼ Hiroaki Miyamoto, Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Graduated from the Faculty of Economics, Keio University in 2000. Received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2009.He has held positions including Special Advisor to the President and Professor at the International University of Japan, Specially Appointed Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo, Economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Professor in the Faculty of Economics and Management at Tokyo Metropolitan University, and has held his current position since 2024.He also served as Senior Research Fellow at the Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, from April of that year through March ’26. His areas of expertise include labor economics, macroeconomics, and the Japanese economy; while moving between academia and the policy arena, he has published numerous papers in international academic journals.His numerous publications include *The Great AI Divide: Cutting-Edge Research Reveals the Future of Work and Wages* (Nihon Hyoronsha), *Our Japanese Economy* (Yuhikaku), and *The Effects of Japan’s Fiscal Policy: Aging, the Labor Market, and Gender Equality* (Nikkei Publishing).