Will Russia Collapse? Putin, Isolated and Frustrated in the International Community.

Russia is under siege.

Since the sudden invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 , the government has announced that the number of deaths of civilian is estimated to be more than 2000. The intensified attacks on non-military facilities, including a TV tower in the capital, Kiev, and university and city hall buildings in the second largest city, Kharkov, have drawn worldwide criticism.

At the UN Human Rights Council on March 1, when Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov attempted to make a speech, more than 100 diplomatic corps from various countries left the room at once. This is a strong protest against the invasion of Ukraine. Only a few diplomats from China and Venezuela remained. US Secretary of State Blinken objected to Russia’s presence on the Human Rights Council itself. How can a country that wants to take over another country be allowed to stay on this council while violating human rights and causing massive humanitarian suffering?

It is not only in the UN arena that countries are protesting. As an economic sanction, they have decided to exclude major Russian banks from the international payments network SWIFT. Russia is on the verge of a massive depreciation of its domestic currency, the ruble, And hyperinflation. The invading Russian army is also facing an uphill battle. Kiev, which was initially expected to fall in two days, has yet to be overrun. This is probably because the resistance of the Ukrainian army is more fierce than expected.

The situation is not progressing as expected, and President Putin seems to be growing impatient. Unsteady gaze, fingers moving restlessly on the table. The televised images of his speech show President Putin’s irritation.

Some are concerned about his mental state. “US Senator Marco Rubio said on Twitter,’One thing is for sure. Something is wrong with President Putin,’ he posted. It is possible that he is no longer able to make calm judgments.

Differences from the Arab Spring

If the invasion of Ukraine, which was forced in the face of fierce criticism from many countries, comes to a standstill, it could prove fatal for the Putin administration. Recall that the 10 “Arab Spring” in North Africa in the early 1990s. The anti-government movement spread mainly through the Internet, and the revolution that brought down the Military journalist Buntaro Kuroi tells the story.

In Russia, I don’t think there is a high probability that the regime will be overthrown in the manner of the Arab Spring. Certainly, there is an active anti-war movement on the Internet. But the Russian authorities’ restrictions on the Internet  slow down connections to social networking sites that are hotbeds of anti-war activity. In some cases, it is no longer possible to browse.

Control of the media is also strong. They have been accused of distributing articles that use expressions such as “war” and “invasion,” and have been prosecuted. The company ordered about 10 media outlets to remove the documents. Violations can result in the loss of up to 500 million rubles (approx. 5.20 million Yen).  The company warns that it will be fined up to ¥ 10,000,000. It will be difficult to create a current from the Internet or the media big enough to topple President Putin. “

There is another scenario for the  Economic collapse. Sanctions by various countries have caused the ruble to plummet. Previously, the dollar was valued at 70. The exchange rate was in the low ruble range, but since the decision to exclude the ruble from SWIFT, the price of rubles has dropped to as low as 120 rubles. Long lines form daily at bank ATMs (Automated Teller Machines). Mr. Kuroi continues.

If inflation becomes too high, it will be difficult to obtain daily necessities. If trade stalls and supplies become scarce, even survival will become difficult. It will no longer be possible to go If nothing is done, the people’s dissatisfaction will only grow. I think the movement to overthrow Putin’s regime will grow stronger. “

President Putin has maintained his hard-line stance despite his isolation in the international community. His stubborn attitude may shorten his own political life.