Useless Secretary-General? Behind Shunichi Suzuki’s Possible Replacement, Takaichi Eyes a Historic First

Prime Minister Takaichi reveals her true feelings about the useless Secretary-General

On August 15, the anniversary of the end of World War II, worshippers were already lining up in long queues at Yasukuni Shrine in Chiyoda, Tokyo, before the gates opened at 6 a.m. Although Yasukuni Shrine calls for the maintenance of tranquility and dignity and has signs prohibiting the wearing of military uniforms on its grounds, serving Self-Defense Force personnel are permitted to wear their uniforms, and camouflage uniforms are not prohibited either.

Amid the crowds of worshippers, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (65), who had announced that she intended to visit the shrine on August 15 even after becoming prime minister, apparently decided against going, perhaps taking into consideration reactions from other countries. Instead, LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki (73), General Council Chair Haruko Arimura (55), and Election Strategy Committee Chair Yasutoshi Nishimura (63) all visited the shrine together. Takayuki Kobayashi (51), chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, whose constituency includes Yachiyo, Chiba Prefecture, canceled his visit at the last minute to deal with torrential-rain damage and visited the following day, August 16, bringing all four senior LDP officials to the shrine.

“It is unusual for all of the LDP’s senior party officials to visit the shrine together. Suzuki is not known for strongly emphasizing conservative positions; he is known for his mild-mannered personality and advocates politics of harmony, so his visit had not even been a topic of discussion until a few days earlier.” (Political reporter for a national newspaper)

Takaichi is expected to begin a Cabinet reshuffle and changes to the LDP leadership before the extraordinary Diet session in the fall. In particular, political circles in Nagatacho are watching closely to see whether Suzuki will remain in the party’s No. 2 post of secretary-general, which oversees elections; whether Acting Secretary-General Koichi Hagiuda (62), who has handled much of the party’s practical work, will be promoted; or whether someone else will replace him.

Suzuki is a political thoroughbred, the son of former Prime Minister Zenko Suzuki (93, deceased) and brother-in-law of Vice President Taro Aso (85). Unlike former Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama (81), his predecessor, he lacks the extensive connections across both the ruling and opposition parties and the exceptional ability to bring troublesome matters together. Takaichi reportedly did not even inform Suzuki in advance of the dissolution of the Diet in January this year, telling those around her, “Because he’s a useless secretary-general.”

“There is a deep divide between the Prime Minister’s Office and LDP headquarters. Under the Abe administration, former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai (87) had a firm grip on the party, and whenever Abe had a little free time after a Cabinet meeting or at other times, he would get into his car, drive to LDP headquarters, and hole up in the secretary-general’s office.

“Takaichi, however, rarely shows up at party headquarters except for executive meetings. Even when she does come, she mainly talks with Aso, with the secretary-general sitting beside him, and Suzuki apparently has little opportunity to speak. Hagiuda handles the behind-the-scenes negotiations with Nippon Ishin officials, while there is little recollection of Suzuki actually accomplishing anything in terms of practical party affairs. However, Suzuki is Aso’s brother-in-law and the No. 2 figure in the Aso faction, and Takaichi herself became LDP president thanks in large part to the support of the Aso faction during the leadership election. She therefore cannot simply replace him on a whim.” (Same reporter)

Promoting Haruko Arimura to Secretary-General would be a win-win-win

Considering next autumn’s LDP presidential election, Takaichi would not want to turn Aso’s faction, with its 60 members, into an enemy. It had been expected that, partly to stay on Aso’s good side, Suzuki would remain as secretary-general and the matter would be settled. Just as that seemed likely, however, quiet talk began circulating in Nagatacho about a certain person taking over as secretary-general.

A former Abe-faction member of the House of Councillors spoke in a low voice:

“Making General Council Chair Haruko Arimura secretary-general would be a win-win-win personnel decision.”

Arimura is a five-term member of the House of Councillors who has served as minister in charge of promoting women’s participation in society and held other positions. However, she was elected through the proportional-representation system and has no individual electoral district. If a House of Councillors member with no electoral district were promoted to secretary-general, it would certainly be an unusual appointment.

“By party convention, it would be difficult to imagine a House of Councillors member being elevated to secretary-general, but the key point is that Arimura belongs to the Aso faction and is also on friendly terms with Aso. Even if Suzuki were replaced, Arimura could serve as a secretary-general who understands Aso’s intentions.

“She also projects a conservative image, as demonstrated by her visit to Yasukuni Shrine on the anniversary of the end of the war, and she is close to Takaichi. She understands Takaichi’s temperament and policies, and Takaichi would also find her a comfortable choice as ‘a secretary-general who understands my intentions.’” (Same lawmaker)

Arimura’s appointment to her current position as General Council Chair was itself the result of Takaichi’s personal selection. Last August, amid the growing movement to force Ishiba out, Arimura, who was serving as moderator at a general meeting of LDP lawmakers from both houses, submitted a motion asking whether an extraordinary LDP presidential election should be held. This helped pave the way for Ishiba’s resignation and ultimately led to the birth of the Takaichi administration.

“Aso’s presence can be seen in the background, but Takaichi highly valued Arimura’s ability to help bring down the Ishiba administration. During the difficult election faced by Hagiuda, who had been branded a slush-fund lawmaker over the factional political-funds scandal, Arimura went to support his campaign, and Hagiuda also feels indebted to her.

“Arimura is not the type to stab someone in the back. If she were to become secretary-general, it would mark the birth of the first female secretary-general in the history of the LDP, making it a major surprise. The pairing of a female prime minister/LDP president and a female secretary-general could be heavily promoted as a symbol of change and help boost approval ratings.” (Same lawmaker)

In Nagatacho, which was quiet and largely deserted during the Obon holiday period, astonishing personnel rumors are quietly circulating as though they were fact.