Dismissed as an “ineffective Secretary-General”… Behind the Rumors of Shunichi Suzuki’s Replacement, Prime Minister Takaichi Plots a Scenario to Appoint the “First Female Secretary-General”

“An Ineffective Secretary-General”: Prime Minister Takaichi’s Unfiltered Thoughts

On August 15—the anniversary of the end of the war—a long line of worshippers had already formed at Yasukuni Shrine (Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo) before the gates opened at 6:00 a.m.Although Yasukuni Shrine advocates “maintaining tranquility and dignity” and posts signs stating that “wearing military uniforms is prohibited on the premises,” active-duty Self-Defense Forces personnel were permitted to wear their uniforms, and even camouflage gear went unchallenged.

Amid the throng of visitors, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (65)—who had expressed her intention to pay her respects on the 15th even after taking office—decided not to visit, perhaps out of consideration for the reactions of other countries.Instead, LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki (73), General Affairs Chair Haruko Arimura (55), and Election Strategy Committee Chair Yasutoshi Nishimura (63) visited together.Takayuki Kobayashi (51), Chair of the Policy Research Council—whose electoral district includes Yachiyo City in Chiba Prefecture—canceled his visit at the last minute due to emergency response efforts for torrential rain damage; he visited the following day, the 16th, resulting in all four LDP leadership members paying their respects together.

“It is unusual for all LDP party executives to visit the shrine together. Mr. Suzuki, who has not strongly emphasized his conservative leanings, is known for his gentle demeanor and advocates for ‘politics of harmony’; his visit was not even a topic of discussion until a few days ago,” said a political reporter for a national newspaper.

Ms. Takaichi is expected to begin a cabinet reshuffle and party leadership appointments before the extraordinary session of the Diet this fall.In particular, the topic of conversation in Nagatacho is whether Mr. Suzuki will remain in the post of Secretary-General—the party’s second-in-command responsible for elections—whether Acting Secretary-General Kōichi Hagiuda (62), who has been handling day-to-day operations, will be promoted, or whether someone else will take over the position.

Mr. Suzuki is a “political blueblood,” with former Prime Minister Yoshiyuki Suzuki (who passed away at age 93) as his father and Vice President Taro Aso (85) as his brother-in-law.Unlike his predecessor, former Secretary-General Yutaka Moriyama (81), he lacks the ability to build networks across both the ruling and opposition parties or the exceptional skill needed to resolve thorny issues. It is said that Takaichi, without giving Suzuki prior notice of the dissolution of the Diet in January of this year, has complained to those around her that “he’s an ineffective Secretary-General.”

“There is a deep rift between the Prime Minister’s Office and LDP headquarters. Under the Abe administration, former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai (87) held sway within the party, and whenever Prime Minister Abe had a spare moment—such as after Cabinet meetings—he would drive over and shut himself away in the LDP Secretary-General’s office.

However, Ms. Takaichi rarely shows her face at party headquarters except for executive committee meetings; even when she does come, she mainly speaks with Mr. Aso, and while the Secretary-General sits beside Mr. Aso, it seems Mr. Suzuki rarely speaks up.Acting Secretary-General Hagio took charge of laying the groundwork with Ishin of Japan executives, and there are few recollections of Suzuki accomplishing anything of substance in his day-to-day duties.“However, Ms. Takaichi—who is Mr. Aso’s brother-in-law, the number two in the Aso faction, and who became president thanks to that faction’s support in the presidential election—cannot simply go around replacing people at will,” said the reporter.

Appointing Haruko Arimura as Secretary-General Would Be a “Win-Win-Win”

With next fall’s leadership election in mind, the party doesn’t want to alienate the 60 members of the Aso faction. Just as it seemed the decision would be made to keep the current Secretary-General in place—partly to keep Aso-san happy—rumors of a certain individual taking the post have quietly begun circulating in Nagatacho.

A former member of the Abe faction in the House of Councillors whispered the following:

“Appointing General Affairs Chair Haruko Arimura as Secretary-General would be a win-win-win personnel decision.”

Ms. Arimura is a five-term House of Councillors member who has served as Minister for Women’s Empowerment and other posts, but she was elected via proportional representation (national district) and does not represent a specific constituency. It would be an unusual appointment for a House of Councillors member without a constituency to be promoted to Secretary-General.

“Given party convention, it’s hard to imagine a House of Councillors member being selected as Secretary-General, but the key point is that Ms. Arimura belongs to the Aso faction and is on friendly terms with Mr. Aso. Even if she replaces Mr. Suzuki, Ms. Arimura would be a Secretary-General capable of understanding Mr. Aso’s intentions.

Furthermore, he has emphasized his conservative stance—as evidenced by his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine on the anniversary of the end of the war—and is on good terms with Ms. Takaichi. He understands Ms. Takaichi’s temperament and policies, and she, too, would be comfortable with him as a Secretary-General who ‘understands my intentions,’” said the lawmaker.

It was also thanks to Ms. Takaichi’s endorsement that Mr. Arimura secured his current position as Chairman of the General Affairs Committee.Last August, amid a fierce campaign to oust Ishiba, Mr. Arimura—who was presiding over a joint session of both houses—submitted a motion questioning whether to hold a special leadership election. This served as the catalyst for Ishiba’s resignation and ultimately led to the formation of the Takaichi administration.

“Although Mr. Aso’s influence looms in the background, Ms. Takaichi held Mr. Arimura’s skills—which brought down the Ishiba administration—in high regard.Mr. Hagita, who was slandered as a ‘slush-fund lawmaker’ in the factional slush-fund scandal, also feels indebted to Ms. Arimura for rushing to his aid and campaigning for him during his tough election.

Ms. Arimura is not the type to stab someone in the back, and if she were to be appointed Secretary-General, it would mark the first time in LDP history that a woman has held the position—a major surprise. The combination of a female Prime Minister, LDP President, and Secretary-General would be widely publicized and likely lead to a rise in approval ratings,” said the lawmaker.

In Nagatacho, which is quiet during the Obon holiday period, rumors of a surprising personnel change are circulating with a air of plausibility.