Why Can’t Nippon-Ham Beat SoftBank? Shinjo Faces a Growing Arihara Problem

An unusual situation: Despite ranking no. 1 in both team batting average and home runs, they are well behind the league leaders

“We’re going to win 96 games this year and cruise to the championship!”

That was the bold declaration made by Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo (54) before the start of the season.

But—things have not gone according to plan. The team has now played 99 games, with 56 wins and 43 losses, leaving them in third place, 6.5 games behind the league-leading team. They are a long way from the runaway championship Shinjo envisioned. (Figures as of August 3; same below.)

In his first year as manager, in 2022, Shinjo declared, “We’re not aiming to win the championship,” and set about rebuilding a team that had finished outside the top three for three consecutive years, taking a long-term approach. He helped young players who had struggled to make their breakthrough awaken their potential, guiding the Fighters to back-to-back second-place finishes in 2024 and 2025. His managerial skills became known as the “Shinjo Magic.”

“Shinjo-san does not intend to remain manager next season and plans to step down at the end of this year regardless of whether the team wins or loses. That’s why he has been especially determined this season. Before opening day, he had envisioned the Fighters running away with the Pacific League title, powered by a lineup led by Kotaro Kiyomiya (27) and Chusei Mannami (26), along with a formidable starting rotation featuring Hiromi Ito (28), last year’s Sawamura Award winner.” (Sports newspaper reporter covering the Fighters)

However, Shinjo’s runaway championship plan has gone awry. Former Fighters player and baseball commentator Tsutomu Iwamoto explains why:

“Their team batting average is .254, first in the Pacific League, while their 125 home runs are also overwhelmingly No. 1. Their offensive firepower is tremendous, but they have a terrible matchup against the SoftBank Hawks, who are in first place. They have played 14 games against them and lost 12, winning only two. They’re in a situation where they build up a winning record against the other teams, only to give those gains back in games against SoftBank.”

So why, exactly, does the “Shinjo Magic” fail to work against SoftBank?

The biggest reason is the arguably excessive sense of rivalry that the Fighters, particularly manager Shinjo, have developed toward the Hawks this year.

“Shinjo-san is close with SoftBank manager Hiroki Kokubo (54), and before the season started, he would often joke with the media, saying things like, ‘It’s all about taking down Kokubo.’ He also told the players, ‘We absolutely have to beat SoftBank.’ But they were swept in the opening series, and the losing streak eventually reached eight games.

The players’ sense of being unable to beat SoftBank has grown stronger and stronger, and Shinjo has gradually stopped talking about the team. By becoming too focused on defeating SoftBank, they’ve fallen into a vicious cycle where the players tense up and freeze.” (Sports newspaper desk editor)

A Nippon-Ham infielder, Player A, confided:

“Shinjo-san is friendly with the players on the surface, calling them ‘kun’ and so on, but when we’re on a losing streak or irresponsible plays keep happening, he sometimes starts calling us by our bare names, and his tone becomes harsher. This tendency is particularly strong in games against SoftBank, and when he looks like he’s in a bad mood, we’re too intimidated to approach him.

He’s usually cheerful and easy to talk to, but when things stay like that, you can’t help but become conscious of the Hawks. You start thinking, ‘Even if we’re leading, are they going to come back and beat us?’”

What Arihara’s slump after joining from SoftBank reveals

The struggles of right-hander Kohei Arihara (33), whom the Fighters acquired from SoftBank, were another miscalculation for manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo.

“The front office, led by CBO Hideki Kuriyama (65), took the initiative in acquiring him. There had initially been rumors that he was headed to the Giants, and Shinjo wasn’t necessarily desperate to land him, but he seemed delighted, calling it a pleasant surprise. Not only did Arihara add a pitcher who had won the league’s most wins title two years in a row, but the move also had the benefit of weakening a rival.

However, SoftBank wasn’t bothered in the slightest by Arihara’s departure. His ERA had sharply deteriorated from 2.36 in 2024 to 3.03 last season, and given his age, they saw little reason to expect him to improve. Arihara is also very much a goes his own way type with something of a kingly personality. He was a difficult pitcher to handle because he didn’t try to fit into the team. That’s why SoftBank’s attitude was essentially, ‘Go ahead, take him if you want.’” (Pacific League team scout)

SoftBank’s assessment proved correct. Arihara has made eight appearances this season, posting a 4.88 ERA and a 3–6 record, falling well short of the performance expected of a player with an estimated ¥500 million annual salary. On April 12, another incident occurred.

“In the first inning, with the bases loaded and one out, Kiyomiya fumbled a ground ball hit by SoftBank’s Ukyo Shuto (30). Arihara then yelled, ‘Catch the damn ball!’ There have been cases where Shohei Ohtani (32) harshly reprimanded a young catcher after a passed ball, but that worked because there was already a relationship of trust between them. When a pitcher with a kingly attitude starts shouting at teammates, it puts excessive pressure on the entire team.

After the game, Arihara reportedly complained to those around him, ‘I don’t want him playing in games I pitch,’ further worsening the atmosphere. Is Kiyomiya’s struggles—he is batting .241—because of the pressure of becoming team captain, or because of Arihara’s thunder?” (team source)

Perhaps the tension that spread throughout the team has yet to disappear. The Fighters have committed a league-worst 60 errors this season, and even when their vaunted offense catches fire, they have frequently lost games because of poor defense.

“After the July 7 game against Lotte, in which they suffered a heavy defeat after allowing 10 runs following three separate defensive mistakes, Shinjo snapped, ‘Aren’t we going to set the Japanese record for errors?’ It sounds humorous, but he was furious inside. Since Shinjo himself has strong views on defense, infield defense and baserunning coach Ryota Yachi (35) and outfield defense and baserunning coach Hichori Morimoto (45) are also struggling, saying, ‘We can’t exactly teach them anything half-baked.’” (the aforementioned team beat reporter)

As if reflecting the cracks in their defense, the team ERA, which was 2.53 and second in the league last season, has deteriorated to 3.26, ranking third this year. It isn’t only Arihara’s struggles that have caused problems. The starting pitchers who carried the rotation last year have also struggled. Hiromi Itoh, who played in the WBC for Samurai Japan, is 8–5 but has a 3.29 ERA. Meanwhile, Kota Tatsu (22), who was expected to emerge as a young ace, is 3–6 with a 3.21 ERA and was temporarily moved to the bullpen.

“Amid all this, starting catcher Yua Tamiya (26) suffered a bruised middle finger on his left hand during the July 15 game against SoftBank. Fortunately, he avoided a lengthy absence, but backup catcher Yuya Shindo (24) and Yuushi Shimizu (30), who was promoted from the farm team, have increasingly had to take over behind the plate.

The fact that they need Shimizu, who is still remembered for angering Shinjo in 2023 after removing his mitt during a play and allowing a run to score, shows just how thin they are at catcher. That is another source of concern.” (same source)

So what can the Fighters do to defeat SoftBank and finally capture the championship they so desperately want? The aforementioned Iwamoto is calling for the pitching staff to step up.

“Of the 14 games they have played against SoftBank, right-handed pitchers have started 12 of them. It’s not easy to say because of the rotation, but one option would be to use more left-handers.

I’d like to see an enthusiastic left-hander come forward and directly ask Shinjo to let him pitch against them. Takayuki Kato (34), who is having a terrific season at 10–1 with a 2.70 ERA, could even say, ‘Let me pitch against SoftBank!’ And if Mizuki Hori (28), who has been steady with a 1.59 ERA, volunteered, I’d even consider letting him start the game.”

Even though SoftBank have built a substantial lead over them, there are still plenty of teams that have gone on to win the championship after turning things around following the All-Star break.

“There are two keys to a comeback championship. The first is the return to form of Kiyomiya, the left-handed power hitter the Fighters’ lineup is missing. His mental state may be contributing to his struggles, but more than anything, I’m concerned about how high his center of gravity is in the batter’s box. He is repeatedly being set up with high fastballs and then getting beaten by low breaking balls. I’d like to see him get grounded again and return to the gritty, patient hitting he is capable of.

The second is for Seigi Tanaka (32) to shine once again as the closer. As the season progresses, the pitching of the experienced Tanaka will surely help save this team.” (same source)

Since taking over in 2022, Shinjo spent two years dismantling the team before spending the following two years instilling his own brand of baseball. Now, in his fifth season, which he himself has declared his final year, can he finally defeat SoftBank and complete the final piece of the “Shinjo Magic” puzzle?

From the August 7–14, 2026 combined issue of “FRIDAY.”