[Playback ’16] “Unpopular Yuriko”: The Confidence and “Chances of Winning” That Remained Unshaken Even in a Lonely Tokyo gubernatorial race

Is Junichi Ishida His Rival!?

What was *FRIDAY* reporting 10, 20, and 30 years ago? We take a look back at the topics that were making headlines at the time in [Playback Friday].This time, we’re featuring the July 29, 2016, issue from 10 years ago : “Junichi Ishida Was the One I Feared; Neither Shuntaro Torigoe Nor Hiroya Masuda Were My Enemies—The Unpopular Yuriko Koike’s ‘One-Woman Governor’s Race.’”

The 2016 Tokyo gubernatorial election was held to select a successor to Yoichi Masuzoe, who had resigned in June 2016 over issues involving the personal use of official vehicles and improper political fund expenditures. Former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike (63 at the time) was the first to announce her intention to run.This came as a complete surprise to the executive committee of the LDP’s Tokyo chapter. They had asked Shun Sakurai (then 62), former Vice Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and father of Sho Sakurai of the group “Arashi,” to run, but he had firmly declined. Seizing that opening, Ms. Koike suddenly announced her candidacy without any prior “behind-the-scenes maneuvering.”

The LDP faction in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly requested that the Tokyo Metropolitan Chapter endorse former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Hiroya Masuda (then 64), a former bureaucrat. The Tokyo Metropolitan Chapter tried to persuade Ms. Koike to withdraw her candidacy, but she flatly refused.Although she had initially requested the party’s endorsement, she withdrew that request and submitted a letter to the party seeking guidance on her future course, thereby cutting off any possible retreat (text in 《》 is quoted from past articles; titles reflect those at the time).

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《On the evening of July 8, immediately after TV personality Junichi Ishida (then 62) held a press conference announcing his candidacy for the Tokyo gubernatorial election, Yuriko Koike was spotted in Akasaka, Tokyo.

At 5:30 p.m., Ms. Koike emerged alone from a multi-tenant building, got into her office shuttle, and drove for about an hour. From the back seat, she intently watched the news program on which Ishida had appeared live following his press conference. After touring various locations in Tokyo, Ms. Koike got back into the shuttle around 9:00 p.m. and vanished into the night》

It is said that the candidate Ms. Koike feared the most was, in fact, Junichi Ishida.This was because if Ishida—who enjoyed high public approval ratings as a TV personality—had run, there was a possibility they would split the swing vote. However, three days later, Ishida announced he would not run. Although he had said, “I would run if there were a unified opposition candidate,” his decision was based on the fact that he had not been approached, as well as “personal circumstances.”

Just when it seemed he was isolated…

The leading candidates who emerged on the 14th, the official announcement date, included Mr. Masuda, endorsed by the Liberal Democratic Party, and journalist Shuntaro Torigoe (then 76), supported by four opposition parties including the Democratic Party for the People—all rivals backed by major political parties. However, Ms. Koike’s confidence remained completely unshaken.In an article from that time, a campaign staff member commented as follows:

“While the other candidates are protected by their parties, she alone is fighting against the odds with nothing but her own strength. The election campaign is proceeding exactly as Ms. Koike intended, as she has consistently cultivated that image. Mr. Masuda will likely run a steady, organized campaign, but it will be difficult for him to win over independent voters.Ms. Koike had been somewhat wary of Mr. Torigoe, but it became clear at his candidacy announcement that he did not have any solid policies, and she calculates that her lead remains unchanged.”》

The headwinds were strong. The LDP’s Tokyo chapter carried out a thorough campaign to “crush Koike, ” including distributing a document to its affiliated assembly members and their relatives stating that “supporting a candidate not endorsed by the party will result in disciplinary action, such as expulsion.” Additionally, a large workforce was required to put up posters at over 10,000 locations.

On the other hand, however, there were quite a few people rallying to support Ms. Koike, including non-LDP metropolitan assembly members and ward assembly members who had rebelled against the LDP’s Tokyo chapter.Furthermore, Ms. Koike was highly popular among female supporters of the Komeito Party, and there were even rumors that “Komeito, which does not impose as strict restrictions on its supporters as the LDP does, viewed the situation as favorable to Ms. Koike and was providing behind-the-scenes support.”

The feared competition for the independent voter bloc did not seem likely to materialize, and supporters were gradually gathering around her. Ms. Koike herself spoke to this magazine about her state of mind at the time, when some were calling her the “frontrunner.”

“I’m fighting against the ‘godfather’ of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. The more I’m bullied, the more energized I get, and the more courage I feel. There were days when I’d stay up almost all night working on policy, but now I’m calm and sleeping soundly.I’m eating as usual, too. I’m living a perfectly normal life, just as always. (Supporters) are pouring in from all over the country. They, too, give me courage.”》

Yuriko Koike: a woman who turns being disliked—no matter how much—into strength. The Tokyo gubernatorial election was proceeding at the pace she had envisioned—.

It was a landslide victory

The election took place on July 31, 2016. As soon as the polls closed at 8:00 p.m., news outlets declared Yuriko Koike the winner.Voter turnout was 59.7 percent, significantly higher than the previous election’s 46.1 percent. Ms. Koike won with 2.91 million votes, pulling far ahead of Mr. Masuda, who received 1.79 million votes, and Mr. Torigoe, who received 1.35 million votes. Although the race had been reported as a close contest up until the day before, the results ultimately showed that Ms. Koike had won by a landslide.

During the campaign, Ms. Koike advocated for greater transparency in metropolitan government and administrative and fiscal reforms, while emphasizing her confrontational stance against the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the largest bloc in the Metropolitan Assembly.Although Mr. Masuda received strong organizational support from both the LDP and Komeito, the race turned into a split election in which some supporters defected to Ms. Koike. Furthermore, as mentioned earlier, there were suggestions that the LDP’s Tokyo chapter’s strict crackdown—which even targeted relatives of party members—actually backfired and sparked backlash.

Mr. Torigoe, who was backed by four opposition parties, had not fully solidified support within the Democratic Party of Japan to begin with, and his campaign lost momentum after a scandal involving a woman was reported in a weekly magazine. Votes from independent voters flowed to Ms. Koike, and he ultimately failed to capitalize on the rare opportunity presented by the split within the conservative camp.

Looking back on the election campaign, Ms. Koike stated the following in an exclusive interview with the August 5, 2016, issue of *FRIDAY*:

“When the campaign first began, I was prepared for the fact that we would be overwhelmingly short-staffed compared to the other candidates. I thought it might be difficult to put up posters on all 14,000 bulletin boards throughout Tokyo.

However, as it turned out, just as some people turned their backs on me, others stepped forward to help, and offers of assistance came in from all over. I can’t name names, but there were many people—including LDP assembly members and members of other parties—who said, ‘Let us help you.’ As a result, we actually managed to put up posters faster than candidates backed by the major parties.”

Ms. Koike weathered the headwinds with a style that didn’t rely on political parties or organizations. However, the real showdown with the “Godfather of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly”—who had been relentlessly trying to “take Koike down” up until that point—was just beginning.