Scorching Heat and a Massive Typhoon Hit Japan and the World! The Terror of Extreme Weather Caused by the Worst-Ever “Super El Niño”

A newsletter (dated June 18) from the Tokio Marine Research Institute—a think tank of the Tokio Marine Group that conducts research across a wide range of fields, including global natural disasters and social risks—reported, “There are predictions that this year could see a Super El Niño. This is an extremely rare climatic phenomenon that has occurred only a handful of times in the past few decades.”  

We’ve grown accustomed to hearing the term “extreme weather,” referring to once-in-decades torrential rains and heavy snowfall. Nevertheless, there are growing global concerns that the effects of climate change will be more severe than usual from this summer through fall. The “El Niño phenomenon,” which tends to trigger extreme weather, is currently active, and combined with rising sea surface temperatures, there are fears that its impact will be stronger than ever before.

Toward a Heat Wave… The “Rule of Thumb for Cool Summers” Is Collapsing  

El Niño refers to a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific—from near the International Date Line to the coast of South America (off the coast of Peru)—rise above normal levels and persist for about a year.In past El Niño events, sea surface temperatures tended to rise in the eastern Pacific while falling in the western Pacific. As a result, the Pacific high-pressure system near Japan would weaken, making cool summers more likely.

However, things seem to be different this year. Regarding this summer in Japan, an official from the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Meteorological Information Division predicts, “July and August will be hot.” This is because the Pacific High is expected to extend over the area near Japan.

Takuro Okamoto, a senior researcher at the Tokio Marine Research Institute, also notes, “Past data no longer applies.”

“El Niño is a global phenomenon, but the past rule of thumb—that ‘in years when El Niño occurs, Japan experiences cool summers and warm winters’—is no longer holding true. What will happen during El Niño in the era of global warming? While there is still much we do not understand, there is a possibility that ‘extreme weather’ will become more prevalent, such as regions that receive rain seeing even heavier rainfall.”  

Stay Alert This Fall! The Threat of Powerful Typhoons  

According to an announcement by the Japan Meteorological Agency on June 10, an El Niño event has already begun this spring and is expected to continue through the fall. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures may exceed normal levels, and it is predicted that the difference will rise to more than 2°C as we move into the fall.

On June 11 (local time), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also indicated a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures in the observed regions of the Pacific will rise more than 2°C above normal, stating that if this occurs, it would constitute a “very strong El Niño.”Incidentally, there is no clear definition of a “super El Niño,” and a spokesperson from the Meteorological Information Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency explained that “it is not a term used by the agency.”

What makes this particularly problematic is that global warming tends to raise sea surface temperatures near Japan as well. There have been five recorded instances in past El Niño events where sea surface temperatures exceeded the normal average by more than 2°C.Of these, the El Niño events from the spring of 1982 to the fall of 1983 and from the spring of 1997 to the summer of 1998 saw temperatures exceed 3°C. In 1982, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific were high in the eastern region and low in the western region.

However, this year’s El Niño is showing a different pattern than in the past. Mr. Okamoto is sounding the alarm.

“As of May of this year, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific have risen and have not dropped near Japan. High sea surface temperatures tend to increase the energy of typhoons. We need to remain vigilant.

When an El Niño occurs, typhoons tend to form further to the southeast, so they are more likely to intensify as they pass over warm ocean waters for extended periods. During a Super El Niño, there is a possibility of particularly strong typhoons forming.”  

An official from the Japan Meteorological Agency also points out, “When the El Niño phenomenon occurs, typhoons tend to develop over a longer period before reaching Japan.” Moreover, it is not just the summer months that require vigilance. Mr. Okamoto continues:

“When sea surface temperatures are high, atmospheric humidity rises, and air temperatures also increase. This increases the amount of water vapor that can be held in the air. Cumulonimbus clouds form more easily, leading to a higher likelihood of torrential rain. If the Super El Niño continues through this fall as predicted, we will need to pay close attention to typhoon activity from October onward.”

A Direct Hit on Businesses! A Chain Reaction of Unforeseen Risks  

In addition to more powerful typhoons and torrential rains, damage from hail and lightning is also on the rise. How should we prepare for natural disasters? In May of this year, the Japan Meteorological Agency released new disaster prevention weather information, outlining “risk levels” corresponding to a five-tier alert system, as well as “recommended actions” such as evacuation.

Mr. Okamoto emphasizes the importance of being mentally prepared on a daily basis.

“It’s important to pay close attention to the information released by the Japan Meteorological Agency and fully understand its content. For example, if the disaster prevention weather advisory is at Level 4, you should consider evacuating.”

While it goes without saying that individuals should take steps to protect their lives and property, those engaged in agriculture or business need to be even more vigilant. For example, farmers who have set up plastic greenhouses must take essential measures to protect them from strong winds. Even if a company’s factory is located in a “safe” area on a hazard map, it cannot afford to be complacent.This is because there is a risk that the supply chain for procuring raw materials and parts could be disrupted if business partners are affected by a disaster.

“It’s necessary to consider alternative suppliers in case a business partner is affected by a disaster, and to establish a solid disaster preparedness plan in advance.”

Japan Under Direct Threat! The Looming Sound of a Serious Food Crisis  

However, the situation is not simple enough to be managed by the measures of a single company alone. That is where the true terror of the Super El Niño lies.

According to a June 25 report in the Nikkei, countries across Asia have already begun taking measures to counter the Super El Niño.Anticipating that the phenomenon will bring abnormal weather conditions such as droughts, torrential rains, and high temperatures on a global scale, India has suspended sugar exports in anticipation of reduced rainfall. China, meanwhile, has reportedly increased its coal reserves in anticipation of rising electricity demand due to high temperatures.

Compounded by global warming, extreme weather events tend to become more severe in Asian countries. While some regions will experience heavier rainfall, others will face more severe droughts than before. Mr. Okamoto points out the impact on global supply chains.  

“In the past, we’ve seen severe droughts in places like Australia. The impact on the growth of grains such as corn and other crops cannot be ignored.”

Japan relies heavily on imports for its food supply. El Niño is a global phenomenon, and if it becomes a “super El Niño,” its impact will not be limited to Japan.

Global droughts and extreme weather events could, in turn, lead directly to soaring prices and severe shortages of imported food in Japan. Modern Japan—and the world—must confront the harsh chain reaction of climate change unfolding on a global scale.