Is CO₂ Being Blamed Unfairly? Explosive Claims Challenge the Conventional Climate Change Narrative

“Global warming is a hoax.” — It wasn’t long ago that Donald Trump made this statement and was met with intense criticism. However, a growing number of facts are now emerging that lead some to wonder, “Could it be that his claim was actually closer to the truth?”

Large-scale wildfires continue to occur around the world this year. Last year, devastating fires struck places such as Hawaii and Europe one after another. The news repeatedly tells us that this is also because of global warming, but is that really true?

“In fact, there used to be more wildfires in the past than there are today.”

So says Taishi Sugiyama, Director of Research at the Canon Institute for Global Studies.

Were there actually more wildfires in the past?

According to Sugiyama, wildfires can broadly be divided into two categories: those that occur naturally in dry regions such as Yellowstone in the United States and Australia, and controlled burns used to manage forests and grasslands.

“Take Britain, for example. Around the first century, when the Roman army advanced there, the land was covered in forests. Those forests were cleared to create pasture for livestock, and controlled burning was then used to manage those grasslands.

In dry regions, wildfires were originally part of the natural cycle. It’s no different from trees sprouting leaves in spring and shedding them in autumn in Japan. Today, however, even the smallest fire is extinguished immediately. As a result, dry grass and fallen trees—the fuel—continue to accumulate in forests, so when a fire does break out, it burns across vast areas that become virtually impossible to control.

In Japan as well, controlled burning used to be carried out in many places, but today it is rarely practiced, meaning combustible material has likewise accumulated in forests.”

But doesn’t the large amount of CO₂ released by wildfires accelerate global warming?

Sugiyama points out:

“It’s true that wildfires emit CO₂, but if we consider the total amount of CO₂ produced by human activities to be 10, then emissions from wildfires amount to less than 1.”

Is the belief that CO₂ is the culprit behind extreme heat a misconception?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have risen from 280 ppm before the Industrial Revolution (before 1850) to 423.9 ppm in 2024.

With every summer seeming harsher than the last, and with typhoons and sudden torrential downpours appearing more frequent, isn’t this warming caused by increasing CO₂ levels?

“People say global warming is occurring, but according to estimates by Professor Emeritus Junsei Kondo of Tohoku University, Japan’s average temperature has risen by 0.89°C per century. That’s only about 0.3°C over 30 years, not a level humans can physically perceive.”

Sugiyama argues that the reason people feel it’s getting hotter every year is not primarily due to rising average temperatures but rather to the urban heat island effect.

“When areas are covered with concrete and asphalt, those materials absorb heat and continue radiating it even at night. Normally, rainwater seeps into the ground and cools the air through evaporation, but on asphalt roads the water simply runs off into sewers and rivers.

Another factor is the decline in rice paddies. Areas around rice fields feel cooler, but as they disappear, local temperatures can rise by about 1°C.”

Sugiyama also contends that unusual weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoons fall within the range of natural climate variability.

“Japan’s annual precipitation averages about 1,700 millimeters, roughly twice the global average, and rainfall itself has not been increasing dramatically in recent years. In the 1920s, there were years with nearly 400 millimeters more rainfall than today, while in the 1990s there were years with nearly 500 millimeters less.

As for typhoons, so-called super typhoons occurred frequently up until 1971. Typhoon No. 14 in 2022 was indeed extremely powerful, but it was the first super typhoon in 30 years, since Typhoon No. 13 in 1993. It is by no means the case that such storms have been occurring more and more frequently in recent years.”

Trillions spent on the decarbonization money boom

Even if recent temperature increases have been influenced by human activity, Sugiyama argues that the pace has been extremely gradual—about one degree Celsius per century.

“I believe it is a tremendous mistake to spend enormous sums of money solely on reducing CO₂ emissions when the scientific evidence that CO₂ is the absolute primary cause of climate change remains ambiguous.”

Around the world, efforts are underway to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, but Sugiyama also warns of what he sees as contradictions in that approach.

“Take solar panels, for example. They emit CO₂ both during manufacturing and when they are discarded. Moreover, relying heavily on renewable energy drives up energy costs, putting pressure on the economy. We need to stop and ask ourselves, ‘Is this really the right approach?'”

Whenever we see news reports about wildfires, it is easy to call for greater CO₂ reduction efforts. However, the question remains whether policies aimed at cutting CO₂ emissions are truly benefiting both the environment and our daily lives. Rather than simply following the latest trend, calm and balanced discussion is needed.

Taishi Sugiyama. Director of Research at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, specializing in climate change issues and energy policy. He has served on committees including those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Industrial Structure Council, and the Energy Efficiency Standards Subcommittee. He is the author of numerous books, including “Decarbonization Is Full of Lies” (Sankei Shimbun Publishing) and “The Truth and Myths About Climate Change as Revealed by Data” (Denki Shoin).