As AI Threatens White-Collar Work, Young Americans Are Choosing the Trades. Why Isn’t Japan?

Blue-Collar millionaires targeted by Gen Z in America

Since around November of last year, the phenomenon known as the American blue-collar billionaire has been attracting attention from media outlets and job-search websites.

Reports have emphasized themes such as, “In the United States, advances in AI and severe labor shortages are increasing the value and wages of skilled trades, accelerating the shift from white-collar to blue-collar work,” and “Workers are earning annual incomes exceeding ¥10 million in hands-on jobs.” However, the reality behind what is happening in America appears to be far more complex.

“Japanese media do not necessarily portray the facts accurately.”

This observation comes from Professor Yoshihiro Taguchi of the Department of Physics at Chuo University. Although a physicist by training, he is an unconventional researcher specializing in cutting-edge data science fields such as machine learning and bioinformatics. In recent years, he has also expanded his interests to artificial intelligence and cognitive science. Last November, he published a report on Note titled “The Light and Shadow of the Blue-Collar Millionaire Dream Pursued by America’s Generation Z.”

“In Japan, the media often presents the situation as though blue-collar workers in the United States have overtaken white-collar workers in income and that people are rushing to switch to skilled trades. Statistically, however, college-educated white-collar workers still earn higher average salaries.

The term ‘blue-collar billionaire’ itself is essentially a political catchphrase. What young Americans are actually aiming for is not to become billionaires but millionaires—not people worth one billion dollars (around ¥160 billion), but one million dollars (approximately ¥160 million),” Professor Taguchi explained.

So why has the idea of the blue-collar millionaire become a reality in the United States? According to Professor Taguchi’s report, several factors are driving the trend.

Among Generation Z, the soaring cost of four-year university tuition and the burden of student loan debt have become increasingly severe. At the same time, growing concerns that AI will automate white-collar jobs have led many to view attending university as a high-risk investment.

In fact, enrollment in four-year universities among Generation Z has been declining, while enrollment at public two-year colleges specializing in vocational training increased by roughly 20 percent in 2025 compared with 2020.

Meanwhile, the mass retirement of the Baby Boomer generation has created acute labor shortages in industries such as construction, HVAC, and plumbing. As wages have risen sharply, annual incomes exceeding $100,000 (approximately ¥16 million) have become increasingly common.

“Generation Z in America now sees the traditional path of earning a university degree and entering a white-collar profession as high risk, while acquiring practical skills and pursuing a blue-collar career is viewed as the lower-risk option.

Moreover, the blue-collar millionaire they aspire to become is not simply a highly paid skilled worker. Their career roadmap is clear: acquire valuable skills, become an experienced tradesperson with a stable high income, then become independent or start a business and ultimately accumulate substantial wealth.”

The path envisioned by Generation Z consists of three steps:

１ Earn money while learning a skilled trade.

２ Become a fully qualified tradesperson with a stable, high income.

３ Start an independent business.

In the United States today, private equity (PE) firms are actively acquiring small businesses. Skilled trades entrepreneurs who successfully grow their companies can ultimately sell them to these powerful buyers, literally becoming millionaires.

This is the true picture of America’s blue-collar millionaire phenomenon.

The question remains: could Japan experience a similar shift from white-collar to blue-collar work, and could a comparable blue-collar dream emerge through success in skilled trades?

Is the blue-collar dream an illusion in Japan?

The number of job openings offering monthly salaries of ¥700,000 or more is roughly seven times higher for white-collar positions than for blue-collar jobs.

This finding comes from the “Blue-Collar Billionaire: Japan Reality Report,” released in April by Frog Inc., a Tokyo-based company that provides big data on Japan’s job market.

Mai Akimoto of the company’s marketing team explains:

“Looking at the growth rate in job postings by major occupational category from March 2025 to March 2026, the top three fastest-growing categories are all blue-collar occupations. Labor shortages have clearly increased demand for blue-collar workers.

However, for positions offering monthly salaries of ¥500,000 or more, white-collar job openings outnumber blue-collar openings by about 4.8 times. At the ¥700,000-plus monthly salary level—roughly equivalent to an annual income approaching ¥10 million—the gap becomes even wider.”

Although blue-collar jobs are seeing stronger growth in the number of openings, the highest growth rates in average monthly salaries over the same period belong to white-collar occupations such as IT engineers, consultants, and sales and administrative staff. As in the United States, Japan has not experienced a reversal in wages between white-collar and blue-collar workers.

Regarding the shift from white-collar to blue-collar work, Leverages Inc., a human resources company based in Tokyo’s Shibuya Ward, released a survey in April showing that roughly one in five blue-collar workers previously held white-collar jobs. The survey covered 724 people currently employed in blue-collar occupations.

The most common reason for choosing blue-collar work was to acquire practical skills (13.7 percent). Among respondents in their twenties, the leading reason was better income (21.4 percent), followed by greater security because the work is less likely to be replaced by AI (14.5 percent).

On the other hand, when asked about the gap between expectations and reality, the most common negative response was that “the salary was lower than expected” (39.9 percent).

“As Leverages’ survey suggests, there are certainly people switching from white-collar to blue-collar work. Whether the number is actually increasing, however, is another question.

In the United States, layoffs of white-collar workers have become commonplace due to the rise of AI, leading many to move into blue-collar occupations. Japan, by contrast, has strong labor protections based on the tradition of lifetime employment, making it difficult for companies to dismiss employees. Large-scale layoffs driven by AI substitution have not occurred.

Given the current circumstances, a labor shift like the one seen in the United States is unlikely to happen in Japan. It’s even less likely that Japan will produce blue-collar billionaires in the same way,” Akimoto said.

The hidden reasons why the HR industry is promoting blue-collar work

Yuya Higuchi of Frog’s marketing team believes the growing attention paid to the term blue-collar billionaire in Japan reflects a shift in recruitment priorities toward industries suffering severe labor shortages.

“Large corporations, anticipating the rise of AI and an uncertain economic outlook, have begun restructuring and offering voluntary retirement packages while becoming more selective about hiring workers in the ¥4 million to ¥6 million annual salary range—the largest segment of the workforce according to National Tax Agency statistics.

Human resource service companies, which connect employers with job seekers, are also finding that traditional white-collar-focused matching alone is no longer sufficient to meet the market’s changing needs.

Today, recruitment platforms and staffing agencies are placing greater emphasis on industries such as construction, logistics, and manufacturing, where labor shortages are especially severe. The growth in blue-collar job postings likely reflects the industry’s efforts to address these challenges by strengthening recruitment in those sectors.

As labor mobility increases, companies and recruitment firms may also hope to present blue-collar careers as a new option for mainstream white-collar workers and encourage them to make proactive career changes.”

However, whether job seekers themselves will embrace that shift as readily as businesses and recruiters hope remains highly uncertain.

“If job sites and recruitment agencies use the term ‘blue-collar billionaire’ to attract people with no prior experience, companies must simultaneously improve working conditions and compensation in blue-collar occupations. Otherwise, the true supply-demand gap in the blue-collar labor market will not be resolved,” Higuchi concluded.

Japanese companies are losing the AI generation’s interest

The analysis and insights provided by Frog’s two researchers paint a picture of Japan where the chances of a blue-collar dream becoming reality are extremely low.

Professor Yoshihiro Taguchi, mentioned earlier, also firmly rejects the idea that Japan will produce its own blue-collar millionaires.

“The situation is simply too different from that of the United States. The same phenomenon cannot happen in Japan.

In the U.S., the risk of unemployment caused by AI has become a real concern. Japan’s employment system, on the other hand, is based on lifetime employment and internal job transfers, with most workers hired regardless of their specific expertise. Even if AI replaces certain tasks, white-collar employees are typically reassigned to different departments rather than losing their jobs.

The structure of industries classified as blue-collar is also fundamentally different. For example, Japan’s construction industry is deeply rooted in a multilayer subcontracting system, where work flows from prime contractors through multiple levels of subcontractors, leaving little profit for those actually performing the work. Under such a system, it is virtually impossible for a subcontractor to grow to the point where an investment fund would acquire it at a high valuation.” (Professor Taguchi; same source below)

Japan also has significantly lower university tuition costs than the United States. As a result, Japan’s Generation Z is unlikely to view university education as a high-cost upfront investment or a white-collar career path as a high-risk choice.

“In advanced countries such as the United States, unemployment among young people without skills has traditionally been relatively high. In Japan, however, graduates are hired even without specialized skills. Companies need to recruit young employees because they rely on internal transfers to allocate personnel and to cultivate future executives. Even if AI reduces the amount of entry-level work available, firms cannot simply stop hiring young workers.”

This system of mass new graduate recruitment and membership-based employment may itself be one of the factors slowing AI adoption within Japanese companies.

“The generation entering the workforce today has grown up with AI as something completely normal. Watching today’s students, I find it hard to imagine them working the same way older generations have. If workplaces remain outdated, they may eventually become frustrated and quit.

When that happens, companies will have no choice but to accelerate AI adoption and transform themselves.”

---

The skills needed to survive the AI era

Japan’s traditional employment practices remain firmly in place, putting its corporate environment effectively one lap behind that of the United States. For now, white-collar employment continues to enjoy strong protection, making a risky shift into blue-collar work unnecessary for most people.

However, as AI becomes more integrated into businesses, the environment for white-collar workers is bound to change. The key question will be:

“Can you become someone who knows how to use generative AI effectively?

First, you must accumulate experience using AI and develop the fact-checking ability to identify errors in AI-generated content. It’s not enough to have only defensive skills—you also need the creative ability to use AI to generate value that only humans can provide.

With both of these abilities, you can become someone who truly masters AI.”

Professor Taguchi adds that robotics is another issue to consider.

“At present, robots cannot yet fully replace people, but as they advance, they may reduce the amount of blue-collar work available to some extent.”

Does that mean blue-collar jobs will not remain secure in the long term?

“I don’t think even experts can accurately predict how far robotics will advance or what kinds of work robots will eventually excel at.

Even if robots become widespread at worksites, human jobs will not disappear. Humans will still be needed to direct and manage robots. However, just as with AI, workers will need the skills to operate and work alongside robots.”

Whether one works in a white-collar or blue-collar profession, the underlying reality is the same: workers who only perform routine tasks face a difficult future.

“Ultimately, both white-collar and blue-collar workers are facing the same challenge. Rather than fearing that AI or robots will take your job, the important thing is whether you can use these technologies to enhance your work. If you continue thinking about what you can create with them, you can remain valuable and successful regardless of what the future brings.”

Both the myth of university-educated white-collar success and the blue-collar dream are being reshaped by technological progress. In an era where the future is increasingly unpredictable, perhaps the only option is to keep thinking, adapting, and moving forward without ever stopping.

Yoshihiro Taguchi is a professor at the Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University. A physicist specializing in bioinformatics, he was selected by Stanford University as one of the world’s top 2% most influential researchers for five consecutive years from 2021 to 2025. His books include “Physics Does Not Exist, What Is Intelligence? Between Humans and AI, and The Science of the Hourglass, among others.”