Linear Chuo Shinkansen 2037 Opening in Question as Challenges Continue to Mount
The total construction cost will double to 11 trillion yen!
A groundbreaking ceremony is expected to finally be held deep in the mountains of the Southern Alps, where the fresh greenery is especially vivid. In the long-stalled “8.9 km gap” in the Linear Chuo Shinkansen project—specifically the Shizuoka section of the Southern Alps Tunnel—heavy drilling machinery is finally set to be deployed.
Journalist Kazuya Kobayashi, who has long covered the Linear Shinkansen issue, explains the background behind the long-frozen national project beginning to move forward:
“The biggest factor was the change in leadership. In 2024, Governor Heita Kawakatsu (77), who had been strongly opposed, was succeeded by the current governor, Yasutomo Suzuki (68), who is more cooperative with national projects.
Regarding the Linear Shinkansen, there had been 28 outstanding issues between Shizuoka Prefecture and JR Central, including environmental conservation concerns. However, at a specialist committee meeting in late March, all of these were approved, and I hear that a groundbreaking ceremony could take place by June at the latest.
While this progress toward construction is certainly a positive development, there are still unknown fault lines deep beneath the Southern Alps, and extremely difficult engineering work requiring an enormous amount of time is expected. The project has merely reached the starting point—the real challenges are still ahead.”
The biggest hurdle is the earth cover of over 1 km
The biggest challenge is the excavation work for the Southern Alps Tunnel. The main obstacle is the height of the mountain above the tunnel (known as “overburden”), which reaches up to 1,400 meters.
This unprecedented pressure carries risks such as mountain bursting (a phenomenon where rock suddenly fractures and pops outward due to extreme ground pressure) and sudden water inflow, in which large volumes of groundwater unexpectedly gush into the tunnel.
In addition, due to rising prices and the difficulty of the construction work, total costs have doubled from the initial 5.5 trillion yen to approximately 11 trillion yen. Even if construction begins this year, the earliest projected opening in 2037 (for the Shinagawa–Nagoya section, including one year of test runs) depends on the assumption that construction proceeds smoothly, making it little more than a provisional future scenario.
“Even the Yamanashi and Nagano sections, which were initially expected to take 10 years, are now said to require 15. Moreover, the Shizuoka section is even more difficult than those. If completion is delayed, costs will also increase. Fundamental issues regarding water and the environment have still not been resolved. While the administration is accelerating preparations for the groundbreaking ceremony, the reality is that challenges toward completion remain overwhelming,” says Kobayashi.
Meanwhile, construction appears to be progressing smoothly at other sites, such as the Kamanashi River Bridge—the longest bridge on the project at 754.2 meters—and the (tentative) Kanagawa Station near JR Hashimoto Station. A reporter from FRIDAY visited the sites and observed that the basic structures of the bridges and stations already appear to be in place.
When asked about the feasibility of the 2037 opening and how it is addressing geological risks, JR Central responded:
“Since excavation has not yet begun in the Shizuoka section, which directly affects the schedule, we are not in a position to state a firm opening timeline. The Shizuoka section is one of the most difficult sections, involving significant uncertainties. Given the need to carefully consider water resources of the Oi River and environmental conservation in the Southern Alps, further delays in construction are also possible.”
Will this “national project” that has finally begun to move forward actually reach completion?
Kamanashi River BridgeChuo City, Yamanashi – Minami-Alps City
Construction, which began in April 2021, is currently a little over 50% complete. Local residents say they are looking forward to its completion, expressing growing anticipation.
Kanagawa Prefecture Station (tentative name)Sagamihara City, Kanagawa Prefecture
A three-level underground station structure. It takes only 10 minutes to reach Shinagawa Station. Excluding the first and last stops, this will be the only underground station on the Linear Chuo Shinkansen. The space resembles an underground cathedral.
PHOTO： Yasuko Funamoto