Rise in Pokémon Card Counterfeiting Prompts Investigation Into Key Underlying Reasons

Counterfeit Pokémon cards are circulating in large quantities in China

As the trading card market continues to heat up, crimes and incidents involving trading cards are also rapidly increasing. Armed robberies targeting highly valuable Pokémon cards have become increasingly common, occurring not only in Japan but also across the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries. The recent McDonald’s Happy Meal Pokémon card buy-up frenzy is still fresh in memory.

Now, it is reported that large quantities of counterfeit Pokémon cards are quietly circulating in China.

“A Chinese mafia group is counterfeiting premium Pokémon cards and distributing them in the market,” says Mr. A, who is well acquainted with China’s underworld.

“In Japan, there have been cases where people ended up with fake Pokémon cards on platforms like Mercari, but those were low-quality copies made with color printers. The counterfeit Pokémon cards in China are on a completely different level. There are mafia groups behind them, and they are printed in proper printing factories, so the quality is very high.”

In Japan as well, there have been cases where struggling printing companies were taken over by organized crime after borrowing money from loan sharks, and then forced to become underground facilities producing fake IDs and securities. A similar situation is reportedly occurring in China under mafia control, where counterfeit Pokémon cards are being produced in such illicit printing facilities.

Why, then, are Chinese mafia groups involved in counterfeiting Pokémon cards?

There are three main reasons:

① High profit-to-risk ratio

② Relatively light legal penalties

③ Victims rarely report the crimes

While some Pokémon cards have sold for as much as 2.528 billion yen per card, most of the counterfeiting activity targets cards worth several hundred thousand yen each.

If you counterfeit currency, you can be sentenced to death

“If an extremely high-value, ultra-rare card floods the market, people will quickly realize they are fake. But for moderately priced cards, there are already a fair number circulating in the market, so it’s unlikely to be noticed,” says Mr. A (hereafter the same).

Even moderately priced cards are still vastly more valuable per unit than counterfeit banknotes. The highest denomination of Chinese currency is the 100-yuan note, worth about 2,200–2,300 yen. Even if someone were to print fake Japanese yen, the maximum value per note would be around 10,000 yen, and for US dollars about 16,000 yen. In contrast, a premium Pokémon card can fetch hundreds of thousands of yen per card. Moreover, compared to banknotes or securities, they are easier to reproduce, making them an extremely cost-efficient business for counterfeit groups.

Furthermore, even if counterfeit Pokémon cards are discovered and the perpetrators are arrested, the penalties are far lighter than those for counterfeiting currency.

“In China, counterfeiting currency can be a crime punishable by death. But producing and selling counterfeit goods only constitutes trademark infringement. At worst, it results in up to three years in prison, and at most ten years,” he explains.

In addition, counterfeit Pokémon cards are difficult to detect in China to begin with. This is because reporting the crime often puts the victim at a disadvantage.

“In China, even counterfeit banknotes circulate widely, but if you report them to the police or a bank, the fake notes are usually just confiscated. There is no proper investigation or compensation for losses—the victim simply ends up worse off.”

So what do people who end up with counterfeit banknotes actually do?

“I have no love for Pokémon.”

“In China, there’s no such thing as people honestly declaring losses,” says Mr. A. “Even when they realize they’ve been scammed, they stay silent, and when they make payments themselves, they casually slip the counterfeit banknotes into the money and pass them on to the next victim.”

It is like a game of Old Maid.

“As for counterfeit Pokémon cards, they are evidence of a crime. So even if you report it to the police, they will likely just confiscate them as evidence. That’s why, in the past, warning posts occasionally appeared on popular local social media platforms like RED, but recently you hardly see them anymore. I think victims are intentionally keeping quiet so they can quietly offload the fake cards they were stuck with.”

It is a game of passing around the “Joker” card.

Behind this phenomenon, there is another factor: unlike in Japan, Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia, the Chinese Pokémon card market reportedly has very few buyers who collect purely out of hobby.

“Most Chinese people involved in Pokémon cards are in it for speculation,” says Mr. A. “Very few have genuine affection for Pokémon. It’s the same mentality as buying overseas real estate you never plan to live in, just to flip it for profit.”

Because of that, even if someone ends up with a counterfeit, it is not a problem as long as they can resell it without taking a loss. If no one reports the crime, then regardless of whether the penalties are severe or lenient, no investigation even begins. For counterfeit groups, this is an ideal situation. Moreover, unlike genuine cards handled by real collectors, counterfeit cards are fresh off the press, never played with, not worn or faded, and may even be in better condition, potentially fetching higher prices than real ones.

This is a sophisticated kind of money-making scheme made possible by China’s status as a global hub of counterfeit production. But the question remains: is this really something that stays confined within China’s domestic market?

Most of the Pokémon cards from McDonald’s Happy Meals bought up by resellers are believed to have been shipped to mainland China by dealers. If the flow is traced in reverse, it would not be surprising if some of those “Jokers” passed around in this game of hot potato have quietly made their way back into the Japanese market. It is entirely plausible that they are already in circulation.

If you own any premium Pokémon cards, perhaps it would be wise to have them carefully inspected by a reliable authenticator.