Consecutive defeats without taking advantage of their high approval ratings… Defeat in the Nerima Ward Mayor’s race casts a pall over the empires of Sanae Takaichi and Yuriko Koike

Fraying Fines in the Head-to-Head Takaichi Administration

As April 21 marks six months since the inauguration of the Takaichi administration last October, it has maintained an exceptionally high approval rating. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, 65, is enjoying the springtime of her life.

On April 11, musician and actor Masanori Sera (70), who appeared as a “surprise guest” at the 93rd LDP convention, performed his 1999 hit song “Burnero Ii Onna” by saying, “I am a musician, so I am better at singing than talking.

When he sang the chorus of the song, he changed the lyrics to “Burn, Sanae” when he should have sung “Burn, Natsuko,” and Mr. Takaichi stood up, raised both hands, and smiled.

The time has come.”

In his presidential address, Mr. Takaichi also expressed his desire to revise the Constitution, saying, “Let us ask the people with an open mind whether we should turn a new page or not.

NHK’s April poll showed that the Cabinet’s approval rating was up 2 points to 61%. The Takaichi administration, which has maintained an astonishingly high approval rating and is facing no opposition, is beginning to show signs of fraying.

Following the March election for governor of Ishikawa Prefecture and mayor of Kiyose, Tokyo, the LDP-nominated candidate for mayor of Nerima Ward, Tokyo, was defeated on April 12. This was followed by the defeat of LDP-nominated candidates in seven mayoral elections on April 19, including mayors of Asakura and Kama in Fukuoka Prefecture, Omihachiman in Shiga Prefecture, Togane in Chiba Prefecture, and Ama in Aichi Prefecture.

The defeat in the election for mayor of Tokyo’s Nerima Ward was a particularly painful blow, known as the “Nerima shock. In the lower house election, LDP candidates won overwhelming victories in 30 wards in Tokyo, and two former incumbents, both of whom had been wandering in the past and were based in Nerima Ward, were elected to their respective positions. Kohei Ojima, 37, the LDP-endorsed candidate for ward mayor, is a former secretary to Governor Yuriko Koike, 73, and had served as a Nerima ward assemblyman and metropolitan assemblyman in Nerima, and was nominated by the former ward mayor to succeed him.

He received endorsements from the Tokyo Restoration Association, the National Democratic Party of Japan, and the Tokyo People’s First Association, and industry groups that support the LDP also rallied to support him, so his organization was solid and the election was one that he could not lose. ……

Mr. Takaichi lost by 33,000 votes to Kenichi Yoshida, 59, who had declared himself “completely independent” and had received no support or endorsement from any political party.

Mr. Takaichi had sent a “letter of intent” in anticipation of his victory, and he had received generous support from his right-hand man, Satsuki Katayama, 66, Minister of Finance, but unexpectedly lost again.

It was supposed to be a unique tag team that would benefit both sides…

The complicated circumstances surrounding the LDP and Koike are also behind the decision.

Before and after she became governor in 2004, Koike criticized the LDP’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly as a “black box. Ojima, a Nerima Ward assemblyman who supported Koike at the time, was also expelled from the LDP.

The fact that a number of leading figures in the Tokyo metropolitan federation who abhorred Koike have died in succession is a major factor, but Koike has won three gubernatorial elections in a row, and her popularity is unshakable. The Tokyo Metropolitan Federation changed its policy, saying, ‘We should take advantage of his popularity rather than make him our enemy. The Tokyo Metropolitan Federation recommended Mr. Ojima as a part of the organization’s efforts to promote reconciliation, but some LDP Tokyo assembly members were not amused and turned their backs on Mr. Ojima.

Mr. Takaichi had the same intention as the LDP’s Tokyo Metropolitan Federation, and the unusual tag team was formed in January of this year.

On January 22, the day before the dissolution of the lower house election, Koike was invited to the prime minister’s office to establish a council on local taxation, and on April 10, the first meeting of the council between the national government and the Tokyo metropolitan government was held, with the policy statement: “Strengthening cooperation between the national government and the metropolitan government will lead to a growth strategy for Japan as a whole.

Koike is in a disadvantageous position in the composition of Tokyo versus the other 46 prefectures over the disparity in tax revenues between Tokyo and the other regions. While Koike is in a solitary plight, Takaichi also did not know how things would turn out when he proposed a dissolution and general election in midwinter.

He contacted Koike through Acting Secretary General Kōichi Hagiuda (62), who is also the former president of the Tokyo Metropolitan Federation of Trade Unions. He wanted to capitalize on Koike’s popularity in order to win the Tokyo constituency. In the lower house election, Mr. Koike used his influence to support the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly members, giving speeches in support of them, leading to their overwhelming victory. As a reward for his efforts, a meeting was held between the national government and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, which included Ojima’s support.

It was supposed to be a unique tag team that would benefit both sides. However, when the race opened, Koike’s close aide was defeated in Nerima, where Koike had held ground when he was a member of the House of Representatives and where he also has a home. Meanwhile, Mr. Takaichi, who had just dared to say at the party convention, “My goal is to build a strong LDP that can continue to win elections both at the national and local level,” suffered a series of defeats by LDP-affiliated candidates.

Although the cabinet’s approval rating is solid, Takaichi’s popularity has not translated into victories in local elections, including the March election for governor of Ishikawa Prefecture, where he was defeated in the midst of the Iranian conflict when he decided to make a speech in support of the candidate over the objections of the opposition. Since then, he has been on a losing streak, and there are growing ripples within the party in anticipation of next spring’s local elections. The anti-Takaichi faction, which had been contained by a high approval rating, is likely to become active in preparation for next year’s local elections,” said a member of the same faction.

A dark cloud is gathering over the female leaders who have been running the capital and the country on the back of high approval ratings.