<figure id="attachment_464490" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-464490" style="width: 2500px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="921b17c2"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/04/558161000cf65a7e101319c82d52e04a.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-464490" class="wp-caption-text">A large number of houses washed away by the tsunami after the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. Taken from the sky over Natori City, Miyagi Prefecture.</figcaption></figure>
<h3> Areas where M9-class tremors are expected</h3>
<p> An unprecedented earthquake is about to hit off the coast of Hokkaido.</p>
<p> In February this year, a joint research team of Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology announced the possibility of an imminent magnitude 9 earthquake (the same level as the Great East Japan Earthquake) in the Kurushima Trench off the Pacific coast of Hokkaido. Assistant Professor Fumiaki Tomita of the International Research Institute of Disaster Science at Tohoku University, a staff member of the research team, said, &#8220;The southwestern part of the Kuril Trench has been experiencing a large earthquake.</p>
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<p><span class="strongInContent"> Based on past tsunami deposits in the southwestern part of the Kuril Islands Trench, it is thought that giant earthquakes have been occurring repeatedly with a cycle of about 400 years. The exact year of the last earthquake is not known, but it is believed to have occurred between 1611 and 1637 in the 17th century, when an earthquake of about M8.8 occurred and a tsunami as high as 20 meters surged along the Pacific coast of Hokkaido.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> However, until now, there has been no crustal movement observation network on the seafloor offshore along the Kuril Islands Trench, and no direct data has been obtained.</span></p>
<p> The research team set up observation points at three locations on the seafloor off the Pacific coast of Hokkaido. Over a five-year period beginning in 1919, the team directly measured crustal deformation for the first time using sonic data and other data. The team discovered a shocking fact.</p>
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<p><span class="strongInContent"> We confirmed that the crust moves west-northwestward about 8 cm per year at two locations on the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate near the Kuril Islands Trench. If the &#8220;strain&#8221; has continued to accumulate since the last 17th century earthquake, the total amount will reach 20.5 to 30 meters in about 400 years.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> The 17th century earthquake is believed to have occurred when the plate boundary shifted by about 25 meters. There is already a danger that tremendous energy that could cause a huge earthquake is accumulating in the Kuril Trench,&#8221; said Tomita.</span></p>
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<h3>Hundreds of thousands of casualties are expected.</h3>
<p> In December 2009, the Cabinet Office announced the estimated damage in the event of a massive earthquake in the Kuril Islands Trench. In the middle of the night in winter, when evacuation is difficult due to snow accumulation, the death toll would be up to 100,000. The damage to 84,000 buildings is estimated to be as high as 100,000. Hiroki Kamata, a professor emeritus at Kyoto University who specializes in earth sciences, explains.</p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> When an M9-class earthquake occurs in the Kuril Islands Trench, strong tremors of intensity 7 and huge tsunamis of up to nearly 30 meters will hit the Pacific coast of Hokkaido and the Tohoku region. The Chishima Trench is not the only area threatened by a massive earthquake.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> A major earthquake could also occur at any time in the Japan Trench off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, which is also on the boundary of the Pacific Plate subducting into the North American Plate. A huge tsunami could hit a wide area from Hokkaido to the Kanto region, killing up to 199,000 people and completely destroying or burning down 220,000 buildings, according to the Cabinet Office.</span></p>
<p> The economic damage was also devastating.</p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> The damage from a Chishima Trench earthquake is estimated to be about 17 trillion yen, and from a Japan Trench earthquake about 31 trillion yen. Most of the damage will be to buildings and ports along the Pacific coast caused by the giant tsunami. Roads, railroads, and other infrastructure will be cut off, and lifelines such as electricity, water, and gas will stop. Smartphones and personal computers will also lose communication for a long period of time.</span></p>
<p><span class="strongInContent"> The damage, both human and economic, will far exceed that of the Great East Japan Earthquake, and the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions will be devastated,&#8221; said Kamata.</span></p>
<p> From the April 17/24, 2026 issue of &#8220;FRIDAY</p>
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<p><a href="https://friday.kodansha.co.jp/article/464488" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Hokkaido and Tohoku are not the only regions that could be hit by a super quake!　Click here for the second part of the article discussing the possibility of a super quake approaching the Tokyo metropolitan area.</a></p>
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<figure id="attachment_464492" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-464492" style="width: 2500px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="b1a5a88d"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/04/84fe4179fd3c722976325363da5fea81.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-464492" class="wp-caption-text"> Last December, an M7.5 earthquake hit off the east coast of Aomori Prefecture. A road caved in and cars fell off the road in Touhoku Town, Aomori Prefecture.</figcaption></figure>
<figure id="attachment_464497" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-464497" style="width: 2500px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="#" data-ident_hash="be65bbad"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/fridaydigital/image/private/t_article_image/wpmedia/2026/04/5f39eab7549dacda4c2549e47483b166.jpg" alt=""></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-464497" class="wp-caption-text"> Predicted Tsunami Damage from a Possible Super Earthquake in Hokkaido and Tohoku</figcaption></figure>


 Masayoshi Katayama, Kyodo News

 In February this year, a joint research team of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) announced the imminent possibility of a super earthquake of the magnitude of the Great East Japan Earthquake. In which areas is an earthquake imminent? Assistant Professor Fumiaki Tomita of the International Research Institute of Disaster Science at Tohoku University talks about it.

Disaster Crisis】Tohoku University and other joint research teams make an emergency announcement&#8230;Imminent in East Japan! A huge earthquake and enormous damage.

Disaster Crisis】Tohoku University and other joint research teams make an emergency announcement…Imminent in East Japan! A huge earthquake and enormous damage.

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