LDP-Backed Candidates Keep Losing — What the Nerima Election Says About Sanae Takaichi’s Real Influence

“They lost in Nerima too.”

The mayoral election in Nerima, one of Tokyo’s 23 wards, is sending shockwaves through Nagatacho.

In the election held on April 12, Kenichi Yoshida (59), a kindergarten director who campaigned as completely independent, won his first term with 123,164 votes.

Kohei Ojima (37), a former Tokyo metropolitan assembly member endorsed by the LDP, Tomin First no Kai, the Democratic Party for the People, and others after being handpicked as successor by incumbent Nerima mayor Teruo Maekawa (80), ran an organization-driven campaign but fell short, suffering a crushing defeat with 90,135 votes — a gap of roughly 30,000 votes.

Regarding the election, a homemaker in her 50s living in the ward said:

“Governor Yuriko Koike (73) and local House of Representatives member Kazuhide Sugawara (64) were campaigning together with him, but Ojima himself barely left an impression. Even looking at the campaign promises distributed in newspapers — earthquake preparedness, extending the Oedo Line — they were all familiar promises we’ve heard before, with nothing fresh or concrete. In the end, I really couldn’t tell what he actually wanted to do.”

Meanwhile, Yoshida opposed the redevelopment of the ward art museum, whose budget had ballooned to 15 billion yen. He expanded his support by emphasizing priorities such as childcare assistance.

Yoshida, who came within 2,000 votes of defeating Maekawa in the previous mayoral race, faced Ojima in what was effectively a two-man contest. A Nerima ward assembly member who supported Ojima could not hide his shock.

“In western Nerima areas like Shakujii and Oizumi, Yoshida was already seen as having the advantage. Even so, I never imagined Ojima — who had organizational backing and diligently visited groups throughout the ward — would lose. And certainly not by this much.”

The results of the mayoral election have also been received with shock in national political circles.

“To be honest, it feels like, ‘They even lost in Nerima.’”

That was the response from a person connected to the Liberal Democratic Party.

“The Nerima Shock” spreading within the party

“In the Ishikawa Prefecture gubernatorial election held on March 8, even though Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (65) personally campaigned there, incumbent Hiroshi Hase lost. Then, in the mayoral election in Kiyose on March 29, the incumbent mayor backed by the LDP lost to a newcomer supported by the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party. Including the Nerima mayoral race, that makes three straight losses. Inside the party, people are even calling it the ‘Nerima Shock,’ and it’s being received as a real blow. It reveals the delicate nature of ‘Takaichi popularity.’”

The Liberal Democratic Party achieved a historic landslide victory in February’s House of Representatives election. However, in the local elections that followed, the party has continued to suffer defeats that make the results from just a month earlier seem almost unbelievable.

What impact will this string of defeats — including the “Nerima Shock” — have on the Takaichi administration?

Political commentator Harumi Arima told this site:

“The LDP is certainly not optimistic about its recent local election defeats, but they are unlikely to become a major issue for the party. Their view is essentially, ‘These are local elections.’ In other words, national and local elections are different. In the recent House of Representatives election, voters supported LDP lawmakers endorsed by Prime Minister Takaichi because they wanted her to play an active role in national politics. People voted to support her personally — not simply because they supported the LDP itself. That’s why, in local elections, where Takaichi’s presence and influence are weaker, the party struggles.”

The LDP has long been dogged by scandals, including the slush fund issue and ties to the former Unification Church. While the party achieved an unexpected landslide victory in the general election thanks to the popularity of Prime Minister Takaichi, there is little doubt that the public still continues to view the party with a critical eye.