So Close in Second Place — The Dubai Dirt and Final-Stretch Trap That Swallowed Japan’s World’s Strongest Horse, Forever Young
Under the tense atmosphere of air-raid sirens blaring
On March 28, right after the Dubai World Cup finish. While the American horse Magnitude, ridden by its jockey, celebrated victory with a whip raised in triumph, Ryusei Sakai (28), aboard Forever Young (5-year-old colt), kept his head down, staring at the sand of Dubai as he rode back—dejected.
Due to armed clashes with Iran, air-raid sirens sounded at night and drone activity was confirmed, creating a tense atmosphere on site. On race day, the stands were nearly empty, a scene symbolizing a wartime Dubai. Even so, Japanese fans had placed their hopes on one absolute champion.
That horse was Forever Young, who had become the undisputed world’s strongest dirt horse after becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the United States last autumn. As the reigning champion, many believed this year—after finishing third in this race last year—would finally bring victory.
As the gates opened, Forever Young settled into an ideal position in second place, tracking the leader. He followed the front-runner Magnitude within striking distance throughout the race and, entering the final straight, responded to Sakai’s strong urging to accelerate. However, he was unable to catch the horse in front. The result: second place. Once again, the Dubai crown slipped away.
He was supposed to be in perfect condition. After winning the Saudi Cup and achieving a historic back-to-back victory, the team had not overexerted him.
“I wouldn’t say he was at 100% condition,” trainer Yoshito Yahagi (65) had said before and after the Saudi Cup. Everything was aimed at winning this Dubai World Cup. The preparation there was intentionally lighter in order to peak in Dubai.
Then came the Dubai World Cup. Although betting by JRA was not offered, overseas bookmakers listed him at around 1.6 odds, making him the overwhelming favorite. Amid an atmosphere of victory is expected, why did the absolute champion fall short?
After the race, trainer Yahagi appeared before reporters and, while showing frustration, spoke calmly:
“It’s my failure as a trainer. There are no excuses. Truly, no excuses.”
After stating there were no excuses in terms of condition or race circumstances, the only possible factor he mentioned as a hypothesis was the track surface.
“His feel in the third and fourth corners was completely different from the Saudi Cup. The (possible) reason is the track. When we come to Dubai, his performance tends to drop a bit, so perhaps it doesn’t suit him well.”
In reality, although both are classified as dirt, the sand at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Saudi Arabia and Meydan Racecourse in Dubai differ significantly.
“The Saudi dirt contains wood chips and synthetic materials, making it favor horses that perform well on turf-like surfaces. On the other hand, Dubai’s dirt is closer to American-style pure sand. The suitability clearly differs,” explains horse racing journalist Satoshi Hiramatsu, who is well-versed in overseas racing.
However, Hiramatsu believes that track condition alone does not fully explain the defeat.
“Of course, it cannot be said that the quality of the dirt surface has nothing to do with it. However, a horse with the level of ability that Forever Young has should normally be able to perform well on any track in any country. More than suitability, I believe the biggest reason for the defeat was that he fell into a race-specific trap in the straight.”
“In the Dubai World Cup, there are many races where, for some reason, horses that take the lead early gradually widen the gap all the way to the finish. Rather than closers barely catching up, once they enter the straight, front-runners instead pull away. This time as well, it was exactly one of those typical ‘Dubai pattern’ races.”
Why does this trap in the straight happen in the Dubai World Cup?
“Jockey Yutaka Take (57) has said that the kickback (sand thrown up by horses in front) on Dubai dirt is extremely painful. It’s possible that horses losing motivation after being hit by that sand could be one factor.”
“However, in this race, Forever Young was positioned well in second place, smoothly tracking the winner on the outside, so he was not in a position where he was severely affected by kickback or lost his drive due to it,” he added.
Then was the winner truly strong enough to defeat the world’s best? Hiramatsu is also skeptical of that interpretation.
“American horses are generally strong in this race, and the winner, Magnitude, is also an American horse. However, this horse had previously been beaten by more than 10 lengths by Sovereignty, one of the top U.S. horses (who skipped the Breeders’ Cup Classic). In terms of pure ability, you would not expect it to beat Forever Young.”
There was no clear disadvantage from kickback, nor was the winner necessarily a top-class standout. Despite a perfect preparation and a flawless ride, the absolute champion still lost. In horse racing, even dominant horses can be defeated; losses are rarely caused by a single factor but by multiple negative elements combining.
However, in this case, even trainer Yoshito Yahagi himself reportedly tilted his head and wondered, “Why did this happen?” The greatest factor behind the loss may have been the mysterious power of Meydan itself—something beyond logic that disrupted the strongest horse.
The now-normal global victories
Since the mid-2000s, Japanese horses have been recognized as world-class on turf middle-distance races, but for a long time dirt horses were considered unable to compete internationally.
In the past five years, however, the situation has changed dramatically. Japanese dirt horses now routinely perform at the highest level in overseas G1 races. Compared to the past, this shift is remarkable. Hiramatsu explains:
“Just a few years ago, it was unthinkable for Japanese horses to lose in the Dubai World Cup and feel disappointed—because the gap with the world was so large that simply competing was considered a struggle.
But now, breeding focused on dirt-specialized stallions has progressed, and it has become common to train horses from before debut with dirt racing as their primary target. This dirt-first approach has taken root, allowing Japan’s natural aptitude for middle-distance racing to be expressed even on dirt.”
Although Forever Young ended in disappointment, the environment for developing dirt horses continues to improve, and more elite contenders will likely emerge in the coming years. It may not be long before a second or third “Forever Young” adapts to the Dubai dirt and takes revenge.
Reporting and writing： Shinsuke Sakai