What Is the Pizza Index? The Unusual Theory Claiming to Predict Global Crises

Users of betting sites are watching closely

One month has passed since the sudden outbreak of the Iran war. Even after the four-week timeframe suggested by U.S. President Donald Trump (79), there is still no sign of resolution (as of April 1).

“By March 31, several thousand personnel, including the U.S. Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division and special forces, had entered the region in preparation for a ground invasion. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly requesting support from Houthi armed groups and taking countermeasures. Ceasefire negotiations also appear to be stalling,” (national newspaper reporter)

Amid volatile stock prices and currency fluctuations due to the uncertain outlook, one website has been attracting attention: the “Pentagon Pizza Index.” It is a site that displays real-time hourly sales data from six pizza shops in Washington, D.C., and is said to be used to predict the course of wars.

Pizza sales and war—two seemingly unrelated things are linked by Washington Post reporter Tim Carman.

“Before emergencies, at the U.S. Department of Defense—commonly known as the Pentagon—military operations and simulations are often planned overnight. During those times, large amounts of pizza are ordered as late-night food. In other words, if sales at pizza shops around the Pentagon spike, it is highly likely that some kind of military action is about to occur.

There is even an anecdote that before the 1990 Gulf War, the CIA suddenly ordered 21 pizzas in the middle of the night. The Pizza Index is said to have predicted at least 21 crises so far, and its reliability is even acknowledged by media professionals,” he said.

In the current Iran war, and even just before Israel’s military strike in June 2025, pizza orders around the Pentagon reportedly surged overnight, which has surprised observers.

Now, attention is being paid to this phenomenon by users of betting sites, where enormous amounts of money are wagered. One such platform is “Polymarket,” the world’s largest online prediction market, where people bet on future real-world events.

“On the site, everything from politics to sports is subject to betting. One of the hottest topics is the situation in Iran. For example, bets on ‘Will there be a U.S. ground invasion of Iran?’ have attracted as much as 56 million dollars (about 8.9 billion yen),” said international journalist Toshihiro Yamada.

Participants, with so much money at stake, analyze every possible open data source intensely. In this context, the highly accurate Pizza Index is considered especially valuable.

Life and death as entertainment

When the reporter opened Polymarket, there were over 340 bets tagged with “Iran.” At the very top of the trending section was a bet titled “When will the U.S. military invade Iran?” and the total wagered amount was rapidly changing. The figure exceeded 70 million dollars.

Another popular open-data military analysis tool is “GPS JAM.”

“It visually shows where radio interference—jamming—is occurring around the world using colors. Right now, the Strait of Hormuz and areas around Israel are deep red, indicating an extremely high alert status. Users reportedly interpret that if the red areas lighten, it suggests an improvement in the situation,” (Yamada)

Other well-known tools include “Flightradar,” which visualizes aircraft movements, and “Hormuz Strait Ship Traffic,” which reflects vessel movements in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Yamada, “When behind-the-scenes ceasefire negotiations are concluded or transit agreements are reached, ships begin moving all at once even before official government announcements. Conversely, if ships are not moving, it can be interpreted that negotiations are still stalled.”

The next major stage of speculation is said to be a potential U.S. invasion of Cuba. Already, about 35% of participants predict that an invasion will occur within the year, and investors are closely watching developments.

However, as popularity surges, problems have also emerged.

“There are rumors of insider trading, where military personnel may be using confidential information to place bets. Reports suggest more than 200,000 suspicious transactions have already been observed, and many illicit millionaires have emerged.

Above all, there are serious ethical concerns about treating war—which involves human life and death—as entertainment through betting. Discussions toward regulation are expected to advance,” (Jack Newsham, Business Insider)

The fact that war itself is being consumed as entertainment is deeply troubling. While Polymarket and the Pizza Index are accessible in Japan, it should be noted that gambling is illegal.

From the April 17/24, 2026 issue of “FRIDAY”