Can you tell where the Iran war is headed? What’s the “Pizza Index” that predicts the occurrence of a global contingency?

Users of “betting sites” are eagerly looking at the site.

A month has passed since the Iranian war started suddenly. Even though four weeks have passed since the war started, which was set by U.S. President Trump (79), there is still no sign that the war has been settled (as of April 1).

By March 31, several thousand troops, including the 82nd Airborne Division, said to be the U.S. Army’s most elite force, and special forces, had entered the region. They are preparing for a ground invasion. Meanwhile, Iran is also taking countermeasures, including seeking support from Houthi armed groups. Ceasefire talks also seem to be running into difficulties.

Amidst the uncertainty and turbulence in both the stock market and the currency markets, a website has been attracting attention. Its name is the “Pentagon Pizza Index. The site displays real-time hourly sales figures for six pizza parlors in Washington, D.C., and claims to be able to predict the course of the war.

Pizza sales and war. Tim Carman of the Washington Post connects the two seemingly unrelated issues.

Before an emergency, the Pentagon stays up all night planning and simulating military operations. At that time, pizza is purchased in large quantities as a nighttime snack. In other words, a spike in sales at pizza shops around the Pentagon is likely to trigger some kind of military action.

There is an anecdote that before the Gulf War in 1990, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) suddenly ordered 21 pizzas in the middle of the night. The Pizza Index is said to have predicted at least 21 contingencies to date, and its reliability is acknowledged by media outlets.

It is surprising that the number of late-night pizza orders at pizza stores around the Pentagon jumped just before the Israeli military attack in June 2013, not to mention the recent war in Iran.

The people who are now paying close attention to these sites are said to be users of “betting sites” where huge sums of money are being made. One such site is Polly Market, the world’s largest online “prediction market” where people bet on what will happen in the future.

The site offers bets on everything from politics to sports. One of the hottest topics is the situation in Iran. For example, a bet of $56 million has been placed on whether the U.S. military will invade Iran.

The participants are so invested in the bet that they analyze all kinds of open data with a keen eye. What is valued here is the highly accurate pizza index,” said Toshihiro Yamada, an international journalist.

Life and death become entertainment.

When the reporter opened the Polly Market, there were more than 340 bets tagged “Iran” taking place. At the top of the “Fastest Rising” column was a bet on “When will the U.S. military invade Iran?” The top line of the “rapidly gaining popularity” section was “When will the U.S. invade Iran? The amount was over $70 million.

GPS JAM” is another popular military-related open data analysis.

It shows visually where in the world radio jamming is taking place, using colors. Right now, the Strait of Hormuz and areas around Israel are bright red, indicating that they are on extreme alert. If the red color fades, they expect the war situation to improve,” says Yamada.

The “Flight Radar,” which charts the operational status of airplanes, and the “Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic,” which reflects the status of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, are also well known. According to Yamada, “When underwater ceasefire negotiations are settled or an agreement on passage is reached, ships start moving en masse before the official government announcement. Conversely, if the ships have stopped, it can be read that negotiations are still in difficulty,” he said.

Currently, the next big game-changer is seen as the U.S. invasion of Cuba. About 35% of the respondents have already predicted that the invasion will take place within the year, and investors are watching the situation with bated breath.

While the popularity of the country is heating up, it is also causing problems.

There are insider betting scandals involving military personnel using inside information. It has been reported that more than 200,000 “suspicious transactions” have already been observed, and many unscrupulous millionaires have been born.

Above all, the very act of enjoying a war in which life and death are at stake is ethically problematic. I expect that the debate will continue to move toward regulation.

The fact that even wars are being consumed as entertainment is just mind-boggling. We should add that both Polly Market and the Pizza Index are available in Japan, but gambling is illegal.

From the April 17/24, 2026 issue of FRIDAY