Pro Baseball 2026 begins – Here are the “winning teams” as derived by Sabermetrics! Central League
Special Report Part 1
Objective analysis of statistical data
Will Hanshin win again? What will happen to the Giants and Yakult with their main guns out?
After the excitement of the WBC has passed, the regular season of the ’26 professional baseball season has finally begun.
Every year around this time, various baseball pundits on TV and in the newspapers make their predictions for the Central League standings, but FRIDAY decided to take a different approach. We use the “sabermetric” method, which statistically analyzes the results of baseball play and objectively evaluates the abilities and contributions of players, to predict the pennant race based on a “scientific performance forecast” that eliminates subjectivity.
Specifically, we asked for the cooperation of DELTA, a data management company, and thoroughly analyzed information on each team over the past three seasons. Based on the “WAR (Wins Above Replacement)” index derived from this analysis, the number of expected wins and losses for each team is calculated. Hiroshi Miyashita, an analyst for “DELTA,” said.
WAR is a number that expresses how much a player has increased the team’s wins and losses compared to a reserve player. For example, Shohei Ohtani (31) of the Dodgers, who won back-to-back World Series titles last season, recorded a WAR of 9.4, meaning that he alone added 9 to 10 more wins for the Dodgers.
The total of these individual WARs, plus the base 47 wins, is the projected win total for that team. If the total WAR is 28, the team will win 75 games in a season.
A pitcher’s individual WAR is calculated from the number of outs struck out, strikeouts, home runs allowed, and earned runs allowed, while a fielder’s WAR is calculated from the total value of his defense, baserunning, and hitting. 2.0 is considered regular class, 5.0 All-Star, and 6.0 or higher MVP-level performance, and in Japanese baseball, each 1.0 is worth 100 million yen per year. In the Japanese baseball world, 1.0 is worth 100 million yen per year.
It should be noted that the calculations are based on data from the most recent three years (’23-’25), so the WARs of players who had big breakthroughs last year are calculated slightly lower. For example, Yuta Izuguchi (26), who batted .300 as a regular starter for the Giants last season and won the Golden Glove Award, recorded a WAR of 6.1, but since he did not join the team in 2011 and was a reserve player in 2012, his WAR is calculated as follows The forecast is that he is not likely to do better than he did last year.
Let’s start with the Central League. The Yakult team, without its main gun due to the departure of Munetaka Murakami (26) to the majors, is the top candidate for the bottom spot for the second year in a row.
They have many injured players, including Sohma Uchiyama (23) and Yasutaka Shiomi (32), and their middle lineup, including Tetsuto Yamada (33), Domingo Santana (33), and Jose Osuna (33), is very old. There is no good material to fill the hole left by Murakami,” said Miyashita.
DeNA, which came from third place in the league to win the Japanese championship in 2012 and finished second in the league last season, is projected to finish fifth.
The loss of four foreigners, Trevor Bauer (35), Andre Jackson (29), Anthony Kay (31), and Rowan Wick (33), who supported the pitching staff, is a major factor. John Duplantier (31), who moved from Hanshin, will be hard-pressed to fill the void alone. It will also be interesting to see how well long-distance hitters such as Shugo Maki (27) and Yosh Tsutsugo (34) can boost the batting lineup with Tyler Austin (34) out,” said Yutaka Takagi, a baseball commentator and former Bay Stars player.
The data is a cruel reality for DeNA.
Veteran players such as Tsutsuka and Toshiro Miyazaki (37) are expected to have fewer opportunities to play. Another factor in the fifth-place projection is that promising youngsters such as Keito Mori (24) and Ryuki Tokai (23) have been sluggish. The batting lineup will have to break away from its dependence on Maki and Tsutsuka, and the pitchers will have to create a new pillar in addition to Katsuki Higashi (30), whose WAR is projected at 2.2. Shintaro Fujinami (31) is a pitcher who, from a data point of view, is more suited to pitching one inning than as a starter. …… If he throws a lot of walks, it is difficult to calculate him as a rotation pitcher,” said Miyashita.
Will Chunichi make a leap forward this season?
Hiroshima, which suffered the tragedy of its main candidate being arrested in a drug case in the offseason, is projected to finish fourth, unchanged from last year.
However, their pitching staff has a combined WAR of 10.5, the highest in the league. At shortstop is last season’s top hitter Kaito Koen (25), and considering that young fielders such as Masaya Yano (27), Shogo Sakakura (27), and Shosei Nakamura (26) are entering their prime, they have the potential to quickly move up in the rankings.
What is surprising is that Chunichi, which suffered the humiliation of being in last place for three consecutive years from 2010 to 2012 and finished in fourth place last season, is expected to finish in third place and in the A-Class.
In addition to a starting lineup that includes WBC players Hiroto Takahashi (23) and Muto Kanamaru (23), Chunichi has a strong relief lineup that includes last season’s saves champion Shinya Matsuyama (25). In addition, the “Home Run Wing” at “Bantelindome Nagoya,” Chunichi’s home base, was newly established this season, making it easier for home runs to be hit. The hitting performance of long-hitting fielders such as Shigeya Hosokawa (27) will definitely improve. The fact that they are the only team to have a winning record over last year’s champion, the Hanshin, also foreshadows a big leap forward this season,” said baseball commentator Keiichi Yabu.
The improvement in Chunichi’s performance can also be seen in the data. Miyashita, the aforementioned baseball commentator, says, “The one to keep an eye on is Yuki Okabayashi.
The one to watch is Yuki Okabayashi (24). His batting average of .291 last season is attractive, but he also contributes to the team with his wide defensive range and strong shoulders that make the most of his quick feet. Another feature of Chunichi is that many of its players, such as catcher Yuta Ishii (25) and second baseman Mikiya Tanaka (25), contribute a lot to the team’s defense, even though they do not stand out when looking at their hitting performance alone. Last season, the second team won the championship, and depending on the success of the young players, there is a strong possibility that they will move up the standings significantly.”
Like Yakult, the Giants, whose main gun Kazuma Okamoto (29) moved to the majors, are projected to finish second, up from third last year. Why in the world?
The center line is strong, including shortstop Izumiguchi, who is projected to earn a WAR of 3.9 this season, second baseman Naoki Yoshikawa (31), and catcher Yukinori Kishida (29). Although they are late to the start of the season, they have the advantage of a starting lineup that includes ace Iori Yamazaki (27) and a relief corps that includes Osei (26) and Rydell Martinez (29). The projected total WAR for pitchers is 10.2, comparable to the Hanshin at 10.4. The key point is whether right-handed pitcher Shoyuki Togo (25), who has been in a slump since last year, can make a comeback,” said Miyashita.
In the Central League, where the five teams are shifting rapidly, Hanshin, projected to finish first, is seriously aiming for the “Allenpa” that former manager Akifumi Okada (68) could not achieve under the leadership of manager Koji Fujikawa (45). The team’s fielding staff, which boasts the league’s top WAR of 19.1, is especially noteworthy.
Teruaki Sato (27) and Shota Morishita (25), who also played in the WBC, are expected to record high WAR again this year. Morishita, in particular, has made significant contributions on the defensive side of the ball, and his projected WAR is 4.8, which is higher than Sato’s. Morishita’s defensive average is also high. The departure of Daichi Ishii (28), who had a 0.17 ERA last season, will be a blow, but with a solid relief lineup including Masataka Oikawa (24), it will not have that big an impact. The only concern is the age of the fielders. The only concern is the age of the fielders. Many of them are in their 30s, including Koji Chikamoto (31), Yusuke Oyama (31), and Seishiro Sakamoto (32), and Takumu Nakano (29) will turn 30 this season, so it is unlikely that players in their 30s will achieve career highs.
From the April 10, 2026 issue of FRIDAY