Pro Baseball 2026 Opening Predicted Champions by Sabermetrics Here Are the Top Teams Pacific League Edition
Special Report - Part 2
Objective analysis of statistical data — Can SoftBank achieve consecutive championships? Will Nippon-Ham fulfill its long-cherished goal?
The excitement of the WBC has passed, and finally, the 2026 professional baseball regular season has begun. Every year at this time, various baseball commentators predict team rankings on TV and in newspapers, but FRIDAY has chosen a different approach. Using sabermetrics, a method that statistically analyzes baseball performance results and objectively evaluates players’ abilities and contributions, they forecast the pennant race based on a scientific performance prediction that excludes subjective opinions.
Special Feature, Part 1: 2026 Pro Baseball Opening — Here’s the Team Predicted to Win Using Sabermetrics! [Central League Edition]
Specifically, FRIDAY collaborated with DELTA Inc., which handles data operations, to thoroughly analyze information from each team over the past three seasons. Using the resulting “WAR (Wins Above Replacement)” metric, they calculated predicted win totals for each team. DELTA analyst Hiroshi Miyashita explains:
“WAR represents how many additional wins a single player contributed to the team compared to a replacement-level player. For example, Shohei Ohtani (31) of last season’s back-to-back World Series-winning Dodgers recorded a WAR of 9.4. That means he alone added 9–10 wins to the Dodgers.
By summing the individual WARs and adding a base of 47 wins, we calculate the team’s projected total wins. So, if the total WAR is 28, that team is expected to win 75 games in the season.”
Pitcher WAR is calculated from the number of outs recorded, strikeouts, home runs allowed, and walks issued, while position player WAR is calculated from a combination of fielding, baserunning, and hitting. A WAR of 2.0 is considered regular-class, 5.0 All-Star-class, and 6.0+ MVP-level. In Japanese baseball, 1.0 WAR roughly corresponds to a salary value of 100 million yen per year.
Since the calculations are based on the most recent three years (2023–2025), WAR for players who had a breakout last season may be slightly underestimated. For instance, Yuta Izuguchi (26) of the Giants, who recorded a .300 batting average as the regular shortstop and won a Golden Glove last season, has a WAR of 6.1. However, he was not on the team in 2023 and was a backup in 2024, so the prediction assumes it’s unlikely he will exceed last year’s performance.
Looking at the Pacific League: the B-class rankings will swap last season’s 4th-place Rakuten and last-place Lotte.
“Lotte expects Atsuki Taneichi (27), who also performed in the WBC, to record a WAR of 2.6. Among position players, Kyota Fujiwara (25) is predicted to earn a WAR of 2.0, although he won’t reach the required plate appearances. Mishou Nishikawa (23), in his second year, is expected to perform well both offensively and defensively. Atsuki Tomosugi (25) has some batting issues but boosts the metrics with strong fielding.
On the other hand, Rakuten has only Takahisa Hayakawa (27) among pitchers expected to exceed 1.0 WAR. Overreliance on Kenta Maeda (37), returning from MLB, is risky. However, Daisuke Nakajima (24) has outstanding outfield defense in the Pacific League, with a predicted WAR of 2.4—higher than Eito Asamura (35) and others. His performance could improve the team’s ranking,” says Miyashita.
Seibu, last season’s 5th-place team, is also predicted to finish 5th.
“The gap left by Tatsuya Imai (27) is significant, but Seibu has strong pitching. How much Tyler Nevin (28), who hit 21 home runs last season, newcomer Alexander Canario (25), and Yasuyuki Hayashi (28) can contribute to scoring will be key,” says Takagi.
SoftBank is aging
Like Seibu, Orix, which finished third last season, is also predicted to remain in third place. How much the batting lineup can support the stable pitching staff, led by Hiroya Miyagi (24), who boasts the highest projected WAR of 3.3 among Pacific League pitchers, will be key.
“The Orix position player expected to generate the most WAR is Kotaro Kurebayashi (24). His defense is around league average, but he makes a difference with his hitting. The difficult part is how to use Tomoya Mori (30). Mori is a player who contributes greatly when playing as a catcher. It’s challenging to split playing time with Kenya Wakatsuki (30), so opportunities to play not just as a DH or in the outfield, but also as a catcher, are important,” said Miyashita.
SoftBank, which won last season with overwhelming strength and carried that momentum to a Japan Series victory, is surprisingly predicted to drop to second place.
“The loss of ace Kohei Arihara (33) is significant. I’m also concerned about the advanced age of position players like Yuki Yanagita (37),” said Yabu.
Even so, led by Kensuke Kondo (32), expected to post the same WAR of 4.8 as Hanshin’s Morishita, the team’s total projected WAR is a league‑leading 22.9. Depending on the pitching, a three‑peat is still fully possible.
Holding off such rivals, the team predicted to cross the finish line in first place is the Nippon-Ham Fighters, managed by Tsuyoshi Shinjo (54) in his fifth year. Shinjo’s carefully nurtured protégés are now approaching their prime as they aim for the long‑desired championship. What stands out is the pitching staff, boasting the league’s highest total projected WAR of 16.8.
“It’s not just Hiromi Itoh (28), expected to post a WAR of 3.2, but also Kotaro Kiyomiya (26), Kota Tatsu (21), and Arihara, who joined via transfer—four pitchers who ranked in the league’s top ten last season. The bullpen also includes energetic pitchers like Taisei Yanagawa (22).
Among the position players, there are key contributors such as Chusei Mannami (25) with a projected WAR of 3.9, last season’s home run king Franmil Reyes (30), and Kotaro Kiyomiya (26), whose batting average has stabilized. Their combined WAR ranks second in the league at 18.2. A fierce battle with SoftBank is expected, but considering that Arihara’s contributions shift from SoftBank to Nippon-Ham, it looks likely that Nippon-Ham will achieve their long‑cherished goal,” said Miyashita.
The reigning champion’s attempt at consecutive wins and the rise of young warriors—this year’s pennant race might be even hotter than the WBC.
From the April 10, 2026 issue of “FRIDAY”