Pro Baseball 2026 begins – Here are the “winning teams” as derived by Sabermetrics! Pacific League
Special Report - Part 2
Objective analysis of statistical data
Will Softbank win again? Will Nichi-Ham achieve their long-cherished dream?
After the excitement of the WBC, the regular season of the 2014 professional baseball season has finally begun.
Every year around this time, various baseball pundits on TV and in the newspapers make their predictions for the standings, but FRIDAY decided to take a different approach. We will predict the pennant race based on a “scientific forecast” that eliminates subjectivity by using the “sabermetric” method, which statistically analyzes the results of baseball play and objectively evaluates the abilities and contributions of players.
Specifically, we asked DELTA, a data management company, to help us thoroughly analyze information on each team over the past three seasons. Based on the “Wins Above Replacement (WAR)” indicator derived from this analysis, the expected number of wins and losses for each team is calculated. Hiroshi Miyashita, an analyst for “DELTA,” said.
WAR is a number that expresses how much a player has increased the team’s wins or losses compared to a reserve player. For example, Shohei Ohtani (31) of the Dodgers, who won back-to-back World Series titles last season, recorded a WAR of 9.4, meaning that he alone added 9 to 10 more wins for the Dodgers.
The total of these individual WARs, plus the base 47 wins, is the projected win total for that team. If the total WAR is 28, the team will win 75 games in a season.
A pitcher’s individual WAR is calculated from the number of outs struck out, strikeouts, home runs allowed, and earned runs allowed, while a fielder’s WAR is calculated from the total value of his defense, baserunning, and hitting. 2.0 is considered regular class, 5.0 All-Star, and 6.0 or higher MVP-level performance, and in Japanese baseball, each 1.0 is worth 100 million yen per year. In the Japanese baseball world, 1.0 is worth 100 million yen per year.
It should be noted that since the calculations are based on data from the most recent three years (’23-’25), the WAR of players who had their big breakthrough last year is calculated a little lower. For example, Yuta Izuguchi (26), who batted .300 as a regular starter for the Giants last season and won the Golden Glove Award, recorded a WAR of 6.1, but since he did not join the team in 2011 and was a reserve player in 2012, his WAR is calculated as follows The forecast is that he is “not likely to do better than last year.
Let’s look at the Pacific League. In the Pacific League, the B-Class standings will switch between Rakuten, which finished fourth last season, and Lotte, which finished last.
For Lotte, Atsuki Taneichi (27), who also played in the WBC, is projected to post a WAR of 2.6. In the field, Kyota Fujiwara (25) may earn WAR 2.0, although he is projected not to reach the regulation batting average. Fumitaka Nishikawa (Misho) (23) is expected to perform well offensively and defensively despite being in his second year, and Atsuteru Tomosugi (25) is pushing up the index with his high defensive skills despite some issues with his hitting.
On the other hand, Rakuten has only Takahisa Hayakawa (27) as a pitcher who can be expected to have a WAR of 1.0 or higher. Over-reliance on Kenta Maeda (37), who is returning from the majors, is dangerous. However, Daisuke Nakajima (24) has the best outfield defense in the Pacific League. He is projected to have a WAR of 2.4, higher than Eito Asamura (35) and others. Depending on his performance, there is a possibility that they may move up in the rankings.
Seibu, who finished 5th last season, is still projected to finish 5th.
Seibu, which finished fifth last season, is still projected to finish fifth. “The hole left by Tatsuya Imai (27) is a big one, but Seibu has always been a team with a strong pitching staff. It is up to Tyler Nevin (28), who hit 21 homers last season, and newcomers Alexander Canario (25) and Ankou Lin (28) to add runs to the scoreboard,” said Takagi.
Softbank is aging.
Like Seibu, Orix, who finished third last season, is still projected to finish third. How well will the batting lineup, led by Daiya Miyagi (24), who boasts the highest projected WAR of all Pacific League pitchers at 3.3, be able to support the stable pitching lineup?
Kotaro Kohbayashi (24) is the Orix fielder projected to have the highest WAR. His defense is on par with the league average, but his hitting makes the difference. The difficult part is how to use Tomoya Mori (30). Mori is a player who is naturally proud of his high contribution when he plays as a catcher. It is difficult to use him differently from Kenya Wakatsuki (30), but it is important for him to have opportunities to play not only as a DH or in the outfield, but also as a catcher.
SoftBank, which won the championship last season with a dominant performance and went on to win the Japan Series, is expected to unexpectedly fall to second place.
The departure of ace Kohei Arihara (33) is a major factor. The age of the fielders, including Yuki Yanagita (37), is also a concern,” said Yabu.
Still, with Kensuke Kondo (32), who is expected to have a WAR of 4.8, the same as Hanshin’s Morishita, at the head of the lineup, the total projected WAR of the 12 teams is 22.9, the highest among the 12 teams, and a third straight championship is quite possible, depending on the pitching.
The team expected to beat their rivals and cross the finish line in first place is Nippon Ham, led by Tsuyoshi Shinjo, 54, who is in his fifth year in the manager’s office. Shinjo has been steadily grooming his prized children toward his long-awaited victory, and they are now entering their prime. The highlight is the pitching staff, which boasts a combined WAR of 16.8, the highest of any of the 12 teams.
The team’s pitching staff is impressive, boasting a WAR of 16.8, which is the highest among the 12 teams. The four pitchers, including the newcomer Arihara, were ranked in the top 10 in the league by last season’s indexes. The relief pitchers also include such lively pitchers as Taisei Yanagawa (22).
The fielding staff also has its share of players, including Nakamasa Mannami (25), who has a projected WAR of 3.9, last season’s home run king Franmil Reyes (30), and Kotaro Kiyomiya (26), whose batting average has stabilized, for a combined WAR of 18.2, the second highest in the league. Considering that Arihara’s savings will be transferred from Softbank to Nichi-Ham, it is likely that Nippon-Ham will achieve their long-cherished goal,” said Miyashita.
A series of championships for the champions, a breakthrough for the young warriors…. This year’s pennant race may be even hotter than the WBC.
From the April 10, 2026 issue of FRIDAY