Gao Shi’s Remarks on the Taiwan Emergency: A “Witness to History” Who Knew about the 1972 Diplomatic Crossing Speaks of “Taiwan-Japan Ties” and the Japan-China Crisis

Leading figure in “practical diplomacy” between Japan and Taiwan

To be honest, I am not impressed with China’s recent behavior. It seems that China is looking for materials for attacks by capturing every word, and I feel that it should respond in a more mature manner. I am somewhat dismayed at the way Prime Minister Koichi is overreacting when he merely expresses his natural perceptions.

Mr. Yuuhiko Matsumoto, 86, a former official of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), smiled bitterly as he said this.

Since Prime Minister Koichi declared in his speech to the Diet last November that “a Taiwan contingency could become an existential crisis situation,” relations between Japan and China have been at an unprecedentedly low level. China has imposed restrictions on rare earth exports and advised voluntary restraint on travel to Japan. How should Japan navigate the stormy waters of the “2026 Diplomatic Crisis? We interviewed Mr. Matsumoto, a “witness to history” who has been at the forefront of Taiwan-Japan relations for more than half a century.

It is no exaggeration to say that the career of Mr. Matsumoto, who currently serves as president of the “Japan-Taiwan Sports and Culture Promotion Association,” is the backstory of Japan’s postwar diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

The turning point for Matsumoto, who was working for the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, came during a trip to Europe in 1964. It began when he ventured into East Berlin, which was not an easy task at the time.

Witnessing the oppressed society on the other side of the wall, he keenly felt the importance of freedom. Upon his return to Japan, he resigned from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and jumped into the LDP headquarters, where he served with distinction in the Youth Bureau and the Secretary General’s office.

In 1967, he became secretary general of the “Japan-China Youth Friendship Association,” chaired by Keizo Obuchi, who later became prime minister, and began full-fledged exchanges with Taiwan. He was also Minister of Transport and Minister of Labor. In 2011, he became the first Japanese to be awarded the “Diplomatic Medal of Honor” by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China, and is recognized as a leading figure in Japan-Taiwan relations in both name and reality. How does Mr. Matsumoto see the situation in 2026?

The Nature of “Contingency”–The Shadow of Internal Maneuvering More Terrifying than Missiles

Currently in Japan, the Taiwan contingency is being discussed as an armed conflict, but Matsumoto does not see it that way. The essence of the situation is not so much military invasion as “erosion from within.

Chinese President Xi Jinping must see little merit in physically destroying and unifying Taiwan by military force. Rather, what is truly frightening is a maneuver that would divide public opinion inside Taiwan and in Japan and drive it to self-destruction. At the end of last year, China conducted large-scale exercises around the main island of Taiwan, but it was more of a stunt to instill fear than a purely military action. This is exactly the kind of hybrid strategy they are aiming for. This is the hybrid strategy they are aiming for.

China’s intentions naturally extend to Taiwanese politics as well, and the current political situation in Taiwan is said to be close to “dysfunctional.

The current composition of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (National Assembly) is clear: the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has fallen into the minority, while the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has become increasingly pro-China. As a result of this political stagnation, even when President Lai Ching-kuo has proposed strengthening national defense, the National Assembly has repeatedly stalled deliberations on the proposed defense budget, resulting in significant delays in its passage.

This is not the only problem. It is said that a considerable number of Chinese agents have already infiltrated Taiwanese society. They are infiltrating the lives of citizens, whispering sweet nothings such as, “We will be richer if we join with China,” and skillfully guiding and brainwashing public opinion. The local people say that they are more afraid of collapse from within than missiles. They have a strong sense of crisis about being rattled from the inside and losing their ability to resist as a nation before long.

Such “invisible erosion” is also, of course, affecting Japanese society.

Matsumoto warns that China’s persistent attacks on Prime Minister Koichi’s comments are aimed at creating political and social divisions within Japan and undermining the nation’s deterrent power.

There is a very real geopolitical reason why Japan-Taiwan ties are said to be Japan’s “lifeline. The Taiwan Strait is a key passageway for much of Japan’s energy and food imports, and if Japan were to lose control of these waters, it would be on the brink of extinction.

China’s aims naturally include not only Taiwan but also the Senkaku Islands. China is trying to gain control of the waters from the East China Sea through the Taiwan Strait to the Indo-Pacific Ocean. If China were to seize these islands, the lives of the Japanese people would be completely controlled by China. It is quite natural for Japan that Prime Minister Koichi has acknowledged that the “Taiwan contingency is Japan’s contingency.

The loss of a partner that shares the value of freedom endangers not only the security of Okinawa, but of Japan as a whole.

Reasons for Japan’s Pro-Japan Relations: Trust Beyond Betrayal and the Strongest Deterrent

However, Japan has a history of being indebted to Taiwan, such an important partner, in the past.

In 1972, the then Kakuei Tanaka administration chose to normalize diplomatic relations with China and cut off relations with Taiwan (Republic of China), with which Japan had long enjoyed friendly relations. In terms of diplomacy, this was the greatest diplomatic “wrongdoing” Japan had ever done to Taiwan. Even today, there are no formal diplomatic relations between the two countries, and legally, the two countries remain in a state of “diplomatic separation.

Despite Japan’s “wrongdoing,” the people of Taiwan are more pro-Japanese than any other country in the world, and they do not throw stones at Japan. The two countries have an extremely friendly relationship with each other, despite the fact that they are both countries with which Japan has no diplomatic relations. Matsumoto sees the origin of this mysterious relationship, which cannot be explained by the common sense of international politics, in the spirit of “repaying a grudge with virtue” bequeathed by President 蔣介石.

Currently, historical evaluations of President 蔣介石 are divided within Taiwan, as he was the leader who led the harsh rule of the time. However, in the context of the postwar history of the nation of Japan, his existence is extremely significant. Japan’s current prosperity can be said to be due to the help of Taiwan (Republic of China), and at the end of the war in 1945, the Republic of China led by 蔣介石 ruled the Chinese mainland. Japan, which had lost the war, was placed in a position where it would have been expected to face harsh retaliation and huge compensation claims from the victorious nation.

However, thanks to the generous treatment shown by 蔣介石, “repaying grudges with virtue,” the Japanese on the mainland were able to return home unscathed and compensation was waived. If the ROC government had repaid the Japanese for their grudge, Japan would never have been able to recover quickly from the devastation of the war. Despite such great indebtedness, Japan chose to break off diplomatic relations in 1972, even though it was a hard choice in the international situation. Naturally, the Republic of China (Taiwan) was forced by Japan to take a back seat.

Mr. Matsumoto explains that because of this historical background, the pro-Japan sentiment held by the Taiwanese people is more noble than Japanese people can imagine.

Despite the history of Japan’s betrayal, many Taiwanese people still talk about the modern medical system, compulsory education, higher education (including Taiwan University), railroads, power plants, water and sewage systems, and other infrastructure established during the Japanese colonial period as not just infrastructure, but as “mental infrastructure” to which they are indebted. The Japanese left these systems in Taiwan. These systems that Japan left behind in Taiwan became the foundation of Taiwan’s modernization, and are passed down from generation to generation as the memory that “Japan tried to improve people’s lives, not exploit them. The manifestation of this spirit is the extraordinary donations from Taiwan in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. It is a bond created by the accumulation of Japan’s sincere actions.

There is a deep relationship of mutual trust and support. Mr. Matsumoto reiterates the importance of Japanese leaders clearly stating that “a Taiwan emergency = a Japanese emergency.

When Japanese politicians say these words, it is a strong signal to Taiwan that Japan is on its side. Psychological and political deterrence is important to avoid military conflict. The deeper the ties between the peoples of Japan and Taiwan, the harder it will be for China to get its hands on them. From the outside, Taiwan and Japan must appear to be deeply connected. That is the strongest invisible deterrent.

How should Japan behave in the face of rising military tension? Matsumoto’s conclusion was that Japan should show its “strong ties” with Japan, rather than deploying missiles or improving laws.

Taiwan-Japan ties have overcome the diplomatic hurdle of diplomatic relations since 1972. Now that the second Koichi administration is in full swing, Matsumoto’s analysis of more than half a century of history may provide a clue to a solution to the friction occurring across the Taiwan Strait.