Experts Say Rising Crime Is a Myth as They Critique Takaichi Administration’s Foreign Worker Restrictions That Could Harm Local Communities
Rising Crime a “Lie”? Data Reveals the “Truth”
The number of foreign workers in Japan has been reaching record highs since 2012. According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, as of the end of October 2025, there were approximately 2,571,037 foreign workers, an 11.7% increase from the previous year. This reflects Japan’s structural labor shortage and the reality that its economy increasingly relies on foreign labor.
Meanwhile, in January, the government emphasized orderly coexistence in a comprehensive policy on foreigners and announced plans to strictly address those who violate laws or rules. Foreign policy also became a topic in the House of Representatives election held on February 8, with major parties pledging stricter regulations.
The Liberal Democratic Party proposed strengthening the screening and management of residence statuses, the Japan Innovation Party suggested setting upper limits on the proportion of foreigners, the Sanseito party called for strict limits on total intake, and the Japan Conservative Party advocated halting immigration for now.
Yu Korekawa, a leading immigration researcher at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, criticized these measures, saying they ignore reality.
“Labor shortages are even more severe in rural areas. Local employers are not hiring foreigners simply as cheap labor—they carefully accept them as valuable contributors to the community. This is why the number of foreign workers has grown so much.”
In fact, while maintaining a formal stance of no immigration policy, the LDP has actively promoted accepting foreign workers to secure labor. In 1993, Japan began accepting technical interns; in 2019, it created a new residence status, “Specified Skilled Worker.” By fiscal 2027, a new status, “Training and Work,” will replace the technical intern system.
So now the government wants to make these foreign workers the target of regulatory and management measures.
“They say they will strictly deal with foreigners who break the rules, but under the current residence management system, there are hardly any foreigners who fall into this category as a high-priority issue.
Currently, nearly four million foreigners live in Japan, and more than 40 million tourists visit each year. The number of people staying illegally is about 70,000—less than 2% of all foreign residents. Moreover, the average stay of these individuals in Japan is only around 40 days.
Even if someone temporarily overstays, they either regularize their status or return home within about a month. So, in terms of immigration policy, the number of foreigners who don’t follow the rules is virtually zero.”
During the election, some parties promoted stricter regulations in response to xenophobic claims circulating online, such as foreigners increase crime or they freeload on social security.
“When it comes to crime, while there have been individual incidents, there have been no cases where foreigners have worsened overall public safety. In fact, as foreigner acceptance has increased, the crime rate among foreigners has shown a declining trend.
For example, the foreign population grew from about 1.3 million in the 1990s to 3.7 million in 2023—almost tripling—but the number of criminal offenses decreased from 12,000 in the mid-1990s to 10,464 in 2024. In other words, the increase in foreign residents has not led to worse public safety; it has actually improved.”
Tightening regulations is a disaster for local regions
Since her statement during the LDP leadership race in September last year, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has repeatedly pushed for stricter regulations on foreigners. In her policy speech on the 20th, she again pledged to firmly address problematic behavior by foreign residents.
But in today’s Japan, where the working-age population is sharply declining, are such reality-ignoring measures really necessary?
“Stricter regulations are unnecessary. The government-established Expert Panel for the Realization of an Orderly Coexistence Society with Foreigners submitted a report in January to Minister Kimi Onoda, recommending that any policy-making be based on thorough investigation of legislative facts and accurate understanding of actual conditions. I fully agree with that.
The panel also noted at the start of its report that Japan guarantees fundamental human rights regardless of nationality—the principle of equality between foreigners and Japanese—and that policies must proceed in accordance with this postwar societal principle.
Without upholding these principles and building evidence for policymaking, any regulation lacks both legitimacy and effectiveness.”
In local areas, there is widespread concern over Takaichi’s approach, with officials saying, “Foreigners are essential to regional industries; the government doesn’t understand the realities on the ground.” The National Governors’ Association also emphasized in a joint declaration last November that the government should actively provide information based on accurate data so that citizens can discuss these issues calmly.
“Local governments expect the national government to focus on supporting coexistence with foreigners, not restricting their intake. Policies that suppress foreign workers to address unverified issues are nothing short of a disaster for rural areas.
When I talk with local communities, I tell them not to rely on the central government but to devise their own survival strategies. With Japan losing roughly 800,000–900,000 people a year, waiting on the government will be too late. There’s no time to be complacent.”
While AI and robots are considered potential solutions to labor shortages, Yu Korekawa points out, “Even if productivity improves through AI, Japan cannot sustain economic growth without relying on foreign labor.”
“According to estimates published by the Japan Center for Economic Research last July, even with rapid AI implementation, halting foreign worker acceptance would lead to persistent negative economic growth from the late 2030s onward.
In modern industrial societies, labor input alone is rarely decisive for economic growth, but Japan’s population decline is so rapid that its negative impact on the economy cannot be ignored. Except under extremely unrealistic scenarios, productivity gains alone cannot compensate for the shortfall in labor.”
The real reason why Japan continues to be the chosen country
As noted earlier, the number of foreign workers in Japan is still increasing. Yet, with Japan’s minimum wage remaining low by international standards, the country shouldn’t necessarily be an attractive place for foreigners to earn a living. Could Japan risk becoming a country that isn’t chosen?
“Based on my research, the conclusion is that foreign workers will continue to come to Japan. This is because Japan has developed gradually across all sectors—from light industry to heavy chemical industries and advanced technology—offering a complete industrial ecosystem.
In contrast, late-developing countries often leap from low-cost light industry directly to niche high-end sectors to attract foreign investment. They don’t develop mid-sized manufacturing firms capable of holding world-leading shares in specific sectors like Japan. South Korea and Taiwan face similar challenges, with limited mid-level jobs requiring technical skills. In fact, many university graduates from Korea and Taiwan come to Japan seeking work.
Currently, Japan is far from being abandoned by foreign workers. Because all sectors face labor shortages, there is a robust layer of mid-level jobs that, if conditions are met, allow foreigners to live indefinitely in Japan. This makes the country highly attractive to young people across Asia.”
Could the government’s push for stricter regulations inadvertently close the door on foreigners who have already chosen Japan?
“It would be a shame to block a favorable trend that is already occurring. Emphasizing regulation over coexistence sends a negative signal to participants in the Asian international labor market that Japan is unwelcoming. Considering Japan’s rapid population decline, that would be unwise.”
Korekawa argues that what the government should do now is strengthen and expand coexistence policies that local governments have developed independently.
“For example, Japanese-language education, which is mostly left to local governments, should be supported and upgraded at the national level. Municipalities newly accepting foreigners can learn from the expertise of municipalities with proven experience. The government should systematize and actively support the initiatives already undertaken by local communities. This is the priority.”
Yu Korekawa – Director, International Affairs Division, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Graduate of the University of Tokyo; Master’s, University of California, Irvine; Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tokyo. Former Cabinet Office official. Member, OECD Immigration Policy Meeting. Author of Nippon no Imin (Chikuma Shobo) and Immigration Acceptance and Social Integration Reality (Keiso Shobo).
Interview and text by： Sayuri Saito PHOTO： Takeshi Kinugawa