Deterioration of Public Safety is a Lie! Experts cut down the day when the Takaichi administration’s “reality-ignoring” restrictions on foreigners will destroy local communities.

Is worsening security a “lie”?　The “truth” shown by the data

The number of foreigners working in Japan has continued to increase since 2000. According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number as of the end of October 2013 was approximately 2,571,037, up 11.7% from the previous year. This is a glimpse into the reality of the Japanese economy, which is forced to rely on foreign workers due to a structural shortage of labor.

Meanwhile, the government has emphasized “orderly coexistence” in its comprehensive measures on foreigners compiled in January, and has announced a policy of strictly dealing with foreigners who deviate from the law and rules. The policy on foreigners was one of the issues in the lower house election held on February 8, with the ruling and opposition parties pledging to tighten regulations.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has pledged to “strengthen screening and management of status of residence. The Japan Innovation Party proposed “setting a ceiling on the ratio of foreign nationals,” while the Sangen Party advocated “tightening the total amount of immigrants to be accepted,” and the Japan Conservative Party called for “a temporary halt to immigration.

In response to the parties’ measures to tighten regulations on foreigners, Yuh Korekawa of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, a leading researcher on immigration, said, “They are not looking at the reality.

The labor shortage is becoming more serious in rural areas. Local business owners are not hiring foreigners as cheap labor, but are accepting them as valuable members of the community after careful consideration. As a result, we have seen such an increase in the number of foreign workers.”

The LDP administration began accepting “technical intern trainees” in 1993 and created a new residency status, “specified technical skills,” in 2007. In fiscal year 2007, the LDP government will replace the “technical internship” program with a new one. In fiscal year 2007, the government will establish a new status of residence, “Nurturing Work,” to replace the “Technical Intern Training” status.

Will the government subject these foreign workers to regulation and management through comprehensive measures?

You say you will take strict action against foreigners who do not follow the rules, but there are not enough foreigners who fall under that category under the current residency management system to make it a high priority issue that must be addressed. ‘

Currently, there are nearly 4 million foreign residents living in Japan, and more than 40 million tourists visit Japan each year. The number of undocumented people is about 70,000, less than 2% of the foreign residents. Moreover, the average length of stay in Japan for these people is 40 days, according to the data.

Even if they overstay temporarily, their status of residence is regularized or they return home within a month or so. In terms of immigration policy, this means that there are few ‘foreigners who do not follow the rules,’ as the government calls them.”

In the House of Representatives election, there were some advocates of stricter regulation measures, aware of the chauvinistic discourse flying around on the Internet, such as “the more foreigners, the worse public security will become” and “they will get a free ride on the social security system.

In terms of the relationship between foreigners and public safety, while there have been individual cases, there have been no cases that have worsened public safety in the region as a whole. With the increasing acceptance of foreign nationals, the crime rate itself has shown a downward trend.

In fact, the foreign population, which was approximately 1.3 million in the 1990s, nearly tripled to 3.7 million in 2011, but the number of criminal arrests decreased from 12,000 in the mid-1990s to 10,464 in 2012. The number of arrests for criminal offenses declined from 12,000 in the mid-1990s to 10,464 in 2012. In other words, the increase in the foreign population has not led to a worsening of public safety at all. In fact, it is improving.

Tightening Regulations is a “Disaster” for Local Regions

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has been vocal about her desire to tighten restrictions on foreigners since her election campaign for LDP president last September, reiterated in her policy speech on November 20 that she would “firmly respond to the problematic behavior of foreigners.

With Japan’s working-age population in steep decline, is it really necessary to tighten restrictions on foreigners who seem to be “blind to reality”?

He added, “Tighter restrictions will not be necessary. In a written opinion delivered to Minister Onoda (Norimi) in charge of foreign policy in January, the government-established “Expert Council for the Realization of an Orderly and Coexisting Society with Foreign Residents” recommended a thorough investigation of the legislative facts that form the premise for policy formation and an accurate grasp of the actual situation, and I agree with their recommendation.

In the opening paragraph of the opinion letter, the panel of experts also states, “Japan is a country where human rights are fundamental, regardless of nationality. Japan is a country that has proclaimed to the international community the “principle of equality between foreigners and Japanese,” which guarantees fundamental human rights regardless of nationality, and it is necessary to proceed based on this basic principle of postwar Japanese society.

We must uphold the principles to which Japan has committed itself to the international community, and we must accumulate the evidence necessary to formulate policy. Without these two things, I believe that any regulations cannot be guaranteed to be legitimate or effective.

In response to the strengthening of measures for foreign residents by the Takaichi administration, some local residents have expressed their dissatisfaction, saying, “Foreigners are the bearers of local industries. The government does not understand the local situation,” and other complaints have been voiced. In its “Joint Declaration for the Realization of a Multicultural Society” last November, the National Governors’ Association also stressed that it would “encourage the national government to actively disseminate information based on accurate data so that the public can calmly discuss the situation.

In response to the comprehensive measures put forth by the government, local communities have higher expectations of the government’s emphasis on support for coexistence with foreign residents. It would be a disaster for the local regions if the government were to promote policies that would lead to a curtailment of acceptance in order to deal with a problem that cannot be confirmed as a fact.

When I speak with local communities, I tell them to think about their own local survival strategies, without relying on the national government. Japan’s population is decreasing by 800,000 to 900,000 people every year, so if we are counting on the government, it will be too late. I don’ t think we have time to be complacent.

AI and robots are considered one of the most effective ways to compensate for the labor shortage, but Mr. Korekawa points out that “even if productivity is increased through AI and other means, it will be difficult for Japan to continue its economic growth without relying on foreign human resources.

According to an estimate published by the Japan Center for Economic Research last July, even if the implementation of AI progresses at a fairly high pace in Japan, the economy will fall into constant negative growth starting in the late ’30s if Japan stops accepting foreign workers.

Although labor input should not be a decisive factor in economic growth in an industrial society such as today’s, the pace of Japan’s current population decline is so rapid that its negative impact on the economy cannot be ignored. Unless we assume a very wild scenario, it is impossible to compensate for the negative impact by productivity growth alone.

The Real Reason Why Japan Continues to be the “Chosen” Country

As mentioned at the beginning of this article, the number of foreigners working in Japan is currently increasing. However, with minimum wages at an internationally low level, Japan should not be an attractive place for foreigners to earn money. If this trend continues, there is no denying the possibility that Japan will become a “country of no choice.

Based on the results of my research, I conclude that the number of foreigners coming to Japan to work will continue to increase. This is because Japan is a country that has developed in stages, covering everything from light industry to heavy chemical industry and advanced technology, and has a full set of industries.

In the case of less developed countries, they jump from low-cost light industry to high-end industry in a specific niche that can easily attract foreign capital at once, so they have not developed a level of small and medium-sized manufacturing industry that can take the top share of the world market in a specific field like Japan. The same is true in Korea and Taiwan, where there are not many jobs available for the middle class with technology and skills. In fact, university graduates from both South Korea and Taiwan are coming to Japan in search of jobs.

At present, Japan is not being abandoned by foreigners. Because of the full set of industries, all industries are in need of labor. The country is very attractive to young people from Asia because there is a large layer of jobs for the middle class, and as long as they meet the requirements, they can live here without expiration dates.”

The government’s plan to tighten regulations may be closing the door on foreigners who have chosen Japan.

I think it would be a shame to close the door on a positive wind that is blowing in an unintended way. If we focus on “regulation” rather than “symbiosis,” we will send a negative message to the participants in the international labor market in Asia that we do not want to accept them. Considering the speed at which Japan’s population is declining, this is not a good idea.

Mr. Korekawa suggests that what the national government should do now is to “enhance and develop the coexistence policies that local governments have been working on independently.

For example, the national government should raise the level of Japanese-language education, which has been left to local governments. For example, the national level should raise the level of Japanese-language education, which has been left to local governments. For local governments that will be accepting new foreign residents, the know-how of local governments that already have a track record should be absorbed and horizontally developed. I believe that the first priority is to organize and firmly support local efforts to date.

Yu Korekawa is Director of the International Relations Department of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Graduated from the University of Tokyo. M.A., University of California, Irvine. Completed the Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Tokyo. Member of the OECD Migration Policy Council. His new books include “Nippon no Migrants” (Nippon’s Migrants) and “Migrant Acceptance and the Reality of Social Integration” (Migrant Acceptance and the Reality of Social Integration).