Putin’s Strange Plan of Suppressing Ukraine without Using Troops

Tensions over Ukraine have finally reached a critical point. Negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, which have been ongoing since the end of last year, have made no progress, and on February 10, U.S. President Biden (79) recommended that Americans in Ukraine evacuate the country immediately.

Military critic Yu Koizumi, a full-time lecturer at the University of Tokyo’s Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, analyzes that “a huge force of up to 180,000 troops has been deployed.

In addition to combat troops, support troops such as artillery and air defense systems are also being deployed. It is not enough to control the whole of Ukraine, but it is enough to annihilate the main force of the Ukrainian army and occupy the capital, Kiev.

Despite the deployment of such a large number of troops, Foreign Minister Lavrov, 71, and other senior Russian officials have consistently insisted that they have no intention of invading. The Russian media outlet Interfax reported that troops from western and southern Russia would return to their bases. However, this was only a diversion. “Behind the words ‘no invasion,’ there is an elaborate plan by President Putin,” said Nakamura Itsuro, a professor of Russian politics at Tsukuba University.

From February 10 to 20, Russia and its ally Belarus conducted large-scale military exercises in the border region. This is seen as a preparation for Belarus to invade Ukraine. It is a close two-hour drive from the Belarusian border to Kiev in Ukraine. With the Belarusian flag flying, it would be hard to tell if Russian troops were hiding in the area. By having Belarus invade, the pretense that “Russia will not invade” will be protected. Of course, the Belarusian side, which would be the advance guard, would also have advantages. This is the natural gas pipeline that Germany and other European countries depend on Russia for. Currently, natural gas is transported from Russia to Europe via Ukraine. If Ukraine becomes a war zone, Russia will deliberately close the pipeline through Ukraine in the name of safety. Instead, it will run the pipeline through Belarus at full capacity to supply natural gas to Europe. Belarus will be able to earn a huge commission.

The U.S. has long warned Russia that it will impose severe economic sanctions if it invades. Mr. Nakamura continues.

The U.S. has long warned Russia that it would impose severe economic sanctions if it invaded. Russia will deny the involvement of the Russian military, just as it did when it annexed Crimea. Besides, Belarus has no core industries. It is a country with a black market economy whose only major export is smuggled cigarettes. Even if the U.S. imposes economic sanctions, it will not hurt them. Since Russia and China are in the background, there is little risk. In the end, Biden will probably have no choice but to cry out to Putin and say, ‘Do something about Belarus.

The U.S. government is predicting that the invasion may occur after the end of the military exercises on March 20. The day of the war is drawing nearer by the minute.

From the March 4, 2022 issue of FRIDAY