Supporting the Election by “Buying Komei Shimbun”… LDP Parliamentary Secretaries Revealed the “Organizational Voting Facts” of Komei Party Supporters.

The Coalition for Reform in the Middle Way suffered a heavy defeat in the lower house election…Where did the organizational votes of the New Komeito Party go?

In the lower house election held on February 8, the LDP secured 316 seats, single-handedly exceeding the two-thirds of the seats available in the lower house. This is the largest number of seats won by a single party in the postwar period.

On the other hand, the new party, the “Chuodo Reform Coalition (Chuodo),” consisting of the Democratic Party of Japan and New Kōmeitō (New Kōmeitō), saw its number of seats plummet from 167 before the announcement to 49, a drop of more than 100 seats. Although the coalition suffered a heavy defeat, a breakdown of the losses shows that the Constitutional Party won 146 seats (21 seats), and Komeito candidates won 28 seats, more than the 24 seats they won in the lower house election in 1949. The Rikken candidates were outnumbered. Komeito candidates dominated the first place in the list for proportional representation in all 11 blocs, and all of them were elected.

It was decided at the time the party was formed that Komeito candidates would withdraw from the primary elections and occupy the top places on the proportional list. The Rikken, which had been the recipient of non-Liberal Democrats, and Komeito, which boasts strong organizational power, should have understood the measure of ‘preferential treatment for Komeito in the proportional list’ by using their organizational power to turn their votes to the Rikken candidates in the primary election districts.

However, the constitutional candidates in the primary elections faced an uphill battle, and the fact that they were unable to regain the top positions in the proportional list because they surrendered the top positions to the Komei candidates has led to widespread resentment.

The situation was so disastrous that even former cabinet ministers and party leaders under the DPJ administration were defeated, and one wonders whether the Komei Party, which is said to have “10,000 to 20,000 votes” in each constituency, and its supporting body, the Soka Gakkai, really had the organizational votes to win. Such questions have been raised mainly by the unsuccessful members of the House of Representatives.

Prior to the Lower House election, the LDP and Komeito had dissolved their coalition for the first time in 26 years, and about 50 LDP Lower House members who had previously competed with Rikken candidates by 10,000 votes or less were considered to be in “danger of losing the election.

The Komei vote, which should have gone to the LDP candidate, was supposed to be transferred to the Rikken candidate in this election, which would have allowed the Rikken candidate to “compete and win even in the fiercely contested districts,” and the Rikken candidate would have made a breakthrough. The next step was expected to be a political realignment after the election and a two-party system that would allow for a change of government.

The left-wing forces such as the Communist Party and the Citizens Coalition had drifted away, but the party anticipated that the Komei vote would be more numerous. When Komei leaders gave speeches in support of the party, men and women of all ages, who were probably members of the Japan Society of Civil Liberties and Social Workers, gathered around them, leaflets were sold, and there was even a line of people waiting to take pictures with their smartphones. I was confident, without any evidence, that I could win the election back with a ‘Komei boost’ in the final stages,” said an unsuccessful councilor.

Did the Rikuminis make concessions to Komei on policies concerning security and the restarting of nuclear power plants, and did more liberal votes leave the party than the Komei vote had anticipated? Did the Komei vote move in the first place?

By purchasing large quantities of Komei newspapers, “were you buying organizational votes?”

When asked at a press conference held on February 9, a day after the election, whether the Komei vote had moved in the primary election, Tetsuo Saito, 74, co-chairman of the party, responded, “I believe we gave them our full support,” and continued, “We received a figure of 1,043,000 in the proportional election.

We received a figure of 10,430,000 in proportional representation. We have one-sixth of the seats (compared to the LDP) and half of the LDP, which had a huge gust of wind (the LDP received 2.13 million votes for proportional representation).

When I asked former Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism Sumio Mabuchi, 65, who lost his seat in Nara’s first district and walked to the board meeting, he replied, “We got 10.4 million proportional representation votes.

We got 10.4 million votes for proportional representation. （I guess that means that the votes (from Komei) have moved.

A veteran secretary of the LDP in the Kansai area commented on the situation inside the party.

The LDP government had discussed the matter with the regional block leaders of the association and had them support the election by purchasing 100 copies of the Komei newspaper. During elections, too, Gakkai members campaigned by phone using lists held by LDP city and prefectural councilors. It was unclear whether there were 10,000 Gakkai members in the election district.

I suppose they wrote “Nakamichi” on the second ballot paper in order to get a member from Komei through this election, but did they properly write the name of the Rikken candidate on the first ballot paper?”

Due to the sudden dissolution, only members of the House of Representatives left their respective parties, and Nakamichi assembled with the new party. House of Councilors members and local lawmakers remain affiliated with their respective parties. Although co-chairman Yoshihiko Noda, 68, says that the party will “proceed with careful discussions so as not to cause a split,” one wonders whether the local members of the Rikken, which will hold local elections in the spring of 2015, will see any merit in Nakamichi joining the new party. And how will the members of the House of Councillors, who are due to be elected to the upper house in two years? Dissonance can be heard everywhere.

I am sorry to drag Co-Chairman Saito into this, but there was always a sense that the two of them were behind the times,” he said at a press conference on January 9.

At a press conference held on September 9, Noda mocked himself, suggesting that he would resign as representative but adding, “I would like to continue the work of keeping the spark lit,” implying that he would be involved in party management.

The centrist party has been driven into a state of collapse just three weeks after its formation. The party barely managed to hold on to its position as the leading opposition party. Nevertheless, the road to revival is far from over.